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Thommo
03-06-2004, 10:21 PM
Bubble Fatigue.

The latest money supply figures show yet another bubble
expanding; M3 is increasing at a breathtaking 20% annual
rate. In the last 4 weeks, M3 has gone up $155 billion. If
this were to keep up, the nation's total money supply would
rise by $2 trillion in a year's time - an amount equal,
roughly, to a fifth of national output.

But how long can it continue?

You will recall, dear reader, that Alan Greenspan has made
a pact with the devil... and George W. Bush has made a pact
with Alan Greenspan. They will both do all they can to keep
the bubble expanding - at least until after the election.
And now, with the war in Iraq going about as well as you
might have expected, the economy has become more important
than ever. If by ballot day, things seem to be going badly
on both bubble fronts, things will also go badly for
America's bubble president on Election Day.

But we are getting a little tired of bubbles. They seem to
expand... and expand... and expand some more. Every time we
expect them to deflate, they merely get bigger.

"You won't believe what is happening to real estate - even
here in Baltimore," said a friend yesterday. "In your old
neighborhood, they sold a house recently for over $300,000.
It's unbelievable."

Unbelievable it is. A few years ago, they couldn't even
give houses away in many parts of Baltimore. Seriously. The
mayor tried it. He condemned hundreds of abandoned houses
and tried to give them away for $1 each. Many of them found
no takers.
################
I bring this exerpt from "The Daily Reckoning" to your attention merely as a sobering thought. Beyond it's most basic value, RE's value is totally "What someone will pay for it" and therefore of no more intrinsic value than a painting on the wall! "God" has stopped painting old masters too. And possibly more critically, stopped putting more oil in the ground.

Just the thought for the night! ..... T

Spiderman
04-06-2004, 12:26 AM
I bring this exerpt from "The Daily Reckoning" to your attention merely as a sobering thought. Beyond it's most basic value, RE's value is totally "What someone will pay for it" and therefore of no more intrinsic value than a painting on the wall! "God" has stopped painting old masters too. And possibly more critically, stopped putting more oil in the ground.

Just the thought for the night! ..... T

Though no one 'needs' a painting, whereas everyone needs some sort of home to live in. Thus houses have 'use value', not just 'exchange value'.

Some properties (say >2x the median price in an area) are luxury homes for which there is no functional need. This sort of prestige property is more like artwork, whose meaning and values are socially-constructed.

If fashions change, values change. If all stamp collectors lost interest tomorrow, the value of their collections would plummet to what the few remaining buyers (possibly poorly-funded museums) were willing to pay. If we became less materialist or we decided we hated beach and views after all, the demand for prestige waterfront property might fall. I'd put inner-city apartments in this 'luxury' category, as long as there are remain cheaper houses and flats in convenient suburban locations.

But everyday properties valued at the median price have a 'use value' as well as an 'exchange value' as they fulfil a fairly basic human need - shelter.

Unless we went back to caves or decided to live 8 per 3 bedroom house (leaving heaps of vacant unwanted houses) the sheer usefulness of houses in providing a basic need limits the extent to which prices can fall.

Regards, Peter

Thommo
04-06-2004, 09:18 AM
If I rephrased "Beyond it's most basic value," to "beyond it's utilitarian value" we would not be so far apart then.

Aceyducey
04-06-2004, 11:08 AM
Thommo,

You can get really cheap land in certain areas in Australia - condition is that you build & live there within a certain period :)

I'm sure there are AU ghost towns where you can pick up a house or ten for a song & dance - but why do it!

Can't see it occurring in next ten years in any AU metros - remember we don't have many of them ;)

Cheers,

Aceyducey

qaz
09-06-2004, 04:28 PM
Anyone wanna sell me a house and land package for $1?

Spiderman
09-06-2004, 04:39 PM
Anyone wanna sell me a house and land package for $1?

A few weeks ago the Herald Sun had a story on a house in Norseman (WA) that sold for $5 and was Australia's cheapest house.

Looking on the web, houses there normally start from $10 or $15k.

Rgds, Peter