price in your target property market?

[McKlusky]

It is commonly accepted that the property market peaked late last year sometime, probably about November. (I know theres lots of different property markets but we have to generalise here)

What i would like to know is how you think buying now in your target market (the one you live in, keep an eye on or study/research) would compare if you had bought at the peak of the price boom last year.

Any other comments would be appreciated as well.

[see_change]

Different Markets , different results

Logan is probably about 10 % off the peak from last Oct, BUT , that peak was only achieved for about one month , and very few people sold or bought at it. Prices are still aroung the August Sept levels. Bit like trying to sell a share at it's top, very few do it . There are not many buyers but also not many sellers as there is no reason for most to sell. The buyers are being picky but the sellers are generally not moving

Rocky has gone up since October last year as has Townsville. not sure how much . I think Rocky's moved about 50 % since mid last year , though there are widely differing opinions about what is happening on the ground up there.

Hobart ? No idea , Don't care, making about 12 % on purchase price with minimal maintainence and minimal vacancies in a good part of town. All we do is enter the money in each month in MYOB....

See Change

[Aceyducey]

McKlusky,

As I have different target markets all performing differently I really can't answer your poll. However across our portfolio we've seen a hiccup & then some steady rises in some areas & flat in others.

IMHO, there's one main flaw in your post that really is making me question your experience in investing.

You say 'we have to generalise here'.

Well actually, no you don't.

That's what makes property such an interesting asset to invest in. You buy, in most cases, a unique property in a unique location. Generalisations simply don't provide a good picture of how well you will do.

Buy a property, not the market.

Cheers,

Aceyducey

[McKlusky]

McKlusky,

As I have different target markets all performing differently I really can't answer your poll. However across our portfolio we've seen a hiccup & then some steady rises in some areas & flat in others.

IMHO, there's one main flaw in your post that really is making me question your experience in investing.

You say 'we have to generalise here'.

Well actually, no you don't.

That's what makes property such an interesting asset to invest in. You buy, in most cases, a unique property in a unique location. Generalisations simply don't provide a good picture of how well you will do.

Buy a property, not the market.

Cheers,

Aceyducey

I meant 'generalisation' as far as the poll is concerned. If the moderators dont mind, next time i will post a poll for every 'unique' market in Australia.

Im open to your suggestions for a poll that is a compromise between space and simplicity on the forum and to allow for every market Australia.

So before you question my investing credentials try something a bit more constructive. I also disagree with your last comment 'Buy a property, not the market' which suggests they arent connected which is blatantly wrong.

For what its worth i am a very experienced investor and lets just see how the poll turns out as that will pretty much cover a lot of markets as im sure forum members live all over Australia and also own properties that
are all over Australia as well and therefore give a good picture of a general trend. Does that satisfy your criticism?

[forrestd]

Market is easily 10% down in Sydneys eastern suburbs, perhaps 15%. The only people selling seem to be those that have to, and they have to cut up the price to get a result. The majority of auctions fail, especially the average properties. And yet some vendors will not let go of the higher expectations from late last year; so we have this weird situation right now in our area.

[Fish]

Hi all,

I'm a novice. I'll say that from the outset so that I don't get accused of being an inexperienced investor and made to feel like I shouldn't post on this forum. :mad:

It may be the way you typed it 'ace' but your input into this poll does nothing other than to suggest that novices or inexperienced investors stay away...lest they get their butt chewed out.

Correct me if I'm mistaken, but this is a forum for the property investing masses, not the mass of hugely successful, self-proclaimed 'experienced' investors who have all the answers. :eek:

Full points McKlusky for having the courage to dare arrange a poll.

What a wonderful world. :)
Fish

[Dose]

Hi,
My thoughts exactly Fish. Well said!

Dose

[Molly]

Hi,
My thoughts exactly Fish. Well said!

Dose

Hi

long time lurker, first time poster

I also agree with Fish we shold all feel ok to start polls and discuss things it seems more often than not Acey jumps down peoples throats and makes them feel second class for not being experienced I think I'll hang out more on the McKnight forum now they seem more tolerant

[Aceyducey]

Fish,

In the nicest possible way, in this instance you're mistaken :D

I never discourage people from posting at their level of experience. I do question when I don't know their level.

What gives me that right? We ALL have it!

In many situations it's deemed acceptable to question claimants - what's your qualifications/expertise/rationale for your claims. I don't see this forum as any different.

In fact considering the number of less experienced investors reading the forum I do feel a responsibility to contribute to ensuring that the information and viewpoints presented are understood in context of their posters' backgrounds and experience.

I don't tell people what to think (and I recommend that you question my views similarly). I try to ensure that the hidden context is clear....such as when someone attempts to advertise or present a certain viewpoint due to their biases rather than the facts.

It's far better to know the perspective from which someone is talking about the topic than to assume their level of experience. There's been a number of incidences on the web where someone with no knowledge has copied & pasted from expert commentary & built up a rep as an expert when in fact they had no experience whatsoever in the area.

My crucial point for my post is that looking at the national property market (whatever that is) & forming an assessment about specific locales involves dangerous assumptions.

It's just as bad to say 'nationally property is trending downwards, therefore I shouldn't buy in locale X' as it is to say 'nationally property is booming, therefore I should buy in locale X' where you haven't done the depth of research in locale X to verify what's likely to happen there specifically.

A national average figure is the middle of all real figures, not the top or the bottom.

In a boom it is possible to buy badly, just as in a downturn it's possible to buy well.

My post was designed to make people think beyond the newspaper headlines, look for specific locales that meet their investment targets & consider them on their own merits.

By all accounts be aware of national trends, but don't limit your research to the headlines.

My comments on McKlusky are based on all posts by that individual to-date. From my perspective I felt that that individual has certain views & assumptions & filters the information from the market solely through those filters....a post is 'realistic' or not to McKlusky based on whether that post reinforces McKlusky's assumptions and viewpoint (McKlusky's comment 'realistic' not mine).

As I have repeated many times, question your own assumptions and those of others. And that naturally includes questioning mine :)

There are many peopel with different investing goals, and many routes to those goals. Don't neglect viable routes due to your own assumptions!

Final point, to my knowledge this was a forum for anyone who invests in or is thinking of investing in property. That includes all levels of experience & outlook. The actual level of experience people have, as opposed to the level they claim, tends to out in the end.

Personally I like to learn from both experienced & less experienced investors, they often bring new perspectives. And I definitely like to learn from successful investors - and from those who have not been successful for some reason.

Perhaps it's not obvious from my posts, but I do read virtually every post on this forum & get some benefit from all of them.

So Fish & Dose, feel free to question my posts & express your views - and I'm always happy to chat privately as well if you don't want to say something publicly. Just don't neglect to question the posts and views of others as well :)

Cheers,

Aceyducey

[McKlusky]

Acey ducey

What a waste of 629 words. Thats gotta be the most verbose load of back tracking revisionary dribble i have seen in ages. You didnt question my experience per se, you implied i was inexperienced. The tone of your post was clear if not the actual words.

As for your comment re my previous 'realistic' post. If you re-read it you will find i said the post was the best one so far on that particular thread and that the poster was in touch with reality, both life and investing reality. I have been reading your defensive whining, long winded, inane posts for a long time on here as a lurker and its posts like yours (and that bloody Dunc) that prompted my comment that a realistic balanced view on investing and life are in short supply here.

In response to your constant carping about different markets or 'locales', well
thats about kindie grade level of property investing knowledge. I think most forum members responding to the poll can see it for what it is and thats an attempt to generalise the whole Australian market in one simple small poll.

Aside from your backtracking, you really didnt address my reply. But back to the poll. From only 22 responses so far it looks like roughly 80% consider their target market has dropped between 0 and 20% since late last year which is inline with my predictions and my local market.

So come on guys, dont read this thread without voting, we need as big as sample as we can get.

Edit: I have just noticed the 2nd last option which stated "More than 20% than when the market peaked " should have said " More than 20% less than when the market peaked" I dont know if its possible to edit that but i couldnt work it out, maybe a moderator might do a quick edit. (Also fix my typo)

[duncan_m]

(and that bloody Dunc) that prompted my comment that a realistic balanced view on investing and life are in short supply here.

I'm really not sure where you get the idea my life/investing balance are out of kilter.. But thanks for at least causing me to take a step back and make sure they arent.

[duncan_m]

I voted 10-20% less than when the market peaked for my area (Woodcroft, Adelaide).

Houses are also staying on the market a LOT longer than 6months ago and I've noted that some places that have gone up for sale have now been withdrawn from sale after 10-12 weeks. I've also been seeing some bargains creeping back into the market at the low end.

[Bill.L]

Hi all,

Back to the original topic of discussion first! The choice for me does not exist in the make-up of the poll, as I will wait for prices to settle, then start to increase before making the decision to act. We have property in 3 different areas and keep an eye on each of them.

The prices may go down or up or sideways, it doesn't matter, when "life" is shown and we can afford to (with regard to the sleep at night factor), then we will purchase further. (of course if the opportunity of a lifetime comes along next tuesday, I reserve the right to change my mind :D ).

OFF TOPIC.
You have to have a thick skin to post on any forum, especially if you have some opinions that are slightly off the popular. I have been told on this forum that it is strongly advised that I NEVER buy a property. I have been told that my opinions are uninformed, and that when I state(with figures to back up what I say) a contrary opinion, be cast as "bashing".

Mcklusky your opinions are valued, and hopefully we will find out more about your investing style. Acey's opinions are also valued. Perhaps we could just put the bad hair day behind us(as we all have them) and move forward.

Hmm,This reminds me, I wonder how long I should wait to open up that can of worms again. ;)

bye

[keithj]

Blue Mountains is down by up to 10%. But mostly houses are just not selling. There's interest from owner occupiers, but they won't buy until they sell theirs (usually in Sydney) first. There hasn't been a sighting of an investors' chequebook in the mountains since November.

Yields are as low as Sydney's and vacancies remain at the same level as last year,so not much chance of putting rents up.

McKlusky, great poll - I have other target property markets but that didn't stop me from voting.

[Andrew_A]

Prices sellers are asking are down slightly from September-October 2003 in the street in which I live, and the places are taking a lot longer to sell as well. There seems to be little pressure on vendors to lower their prices due to the static interest rates and strong economy (my take on the matter). Some local sellers are into their second agent, instead of realising that it might not be the agents fault.

However some parts of the Gold Coast are still doing quite well, especially the areas I'm interested in buying somewhere to live in :(

(off topic flamewar)

This post seemed like a useful one imnsho. No harm in knowing whats happening with peoples property instead of just reading about it in the fish and chips wrapping.

AceyDucey can sometimes be curt with new posters, though the amount of useful and informative posts he makes is quite impressive I think.

Originally posted by Molly

Hi

long time lurker, first time poster

I also agree with Fish we shold all feel ok to start polls and discuss things it seems more often than not Acey jumps down peoples throats and makes them feel second class for not being experienced I think I'll hang out more on the McKnight forum now they seem more tolerant

Molly, How are we supposed to know what we will be missing?

[Aceyducey]

McKlusky,

Well that's the first time Dunc & I have been lumped in the same boat :eek:

Watch how personal you get - you're likely to start having posts pulled or edited.

If you want to rail at me - feel free to give me a call and do it personally.

I am impressed that you did pay enough attention to count my words.

I didn't see anything in your 'reply' that needed a response. I'd love to know about your extensive experience in investing however, it does help me personally form an opinion & I'd love to learn from your experiences in the deals you've done.

Right now I have only your 17 posts to go on. I, like others in this forum, are totally unaware of your experience beyond those posts and so far you've only talked theory....as per my sig.

As I said originally, as I have more than one target area I can't make a generalised response to your poll. I simply can't add up my target areas, divide by the number of areas and provide an average that has any meaning.

If you're expecting to get a lot of responses to your poll, well, about 100 is the most we tend to get in responses to polls on Somersoft, which unfortunately is not a representative sample.

As you've stated elsewhere in this forum that you're expecting an across the board 20% drop in property prices I hope you're not merely seeking reinforcement for your beliefs & will dismiss responses in variance to your views. Challenge your own assumptions!

BTW - my life/investing balance is also fine...in fact I introduced the debate about it to this forum a little while ago.

Cheers,

Aceyducey

[forrestd]

fwiw questioning investment experience/credibility in response to a general poll of this nature is only going to be taken as an antagonistic stab at best, i really dont see the need.

[Corsa]

It is commonly accepted that the property market peaked late last year sometime, probably about November. (I know theres lots of different property markets but we have to generalise here)

What i would like to know is how you think buying now in your target market (the one you live in, keep an eye on or study/research) would compare if you had bought at the peak of the price boom last year.


Hi McKlusky

I have a slightly different point of view, and I will give you an example of what my observations have been.

Two years ago I bought a unit in Adelaide for $57,000 (I know, I know, Adelaide market cheap as!), anyway, I bought this unit and everyone said to me that there was no way that it would increase in value but it would be a good little investment providing good income at $135 a week

At the time, I wanted to buy two, but thought I would wait awhile, see what the market was going to do. So a few months later I started looking again, all of a sudden the units wern't $60k anymore, they were $70k. I was like "I cant buy in at $70k, these units are only worth $60k...I will wait until they drop or they come up for sale at $60k again".. So I kept waiting and waiting, $70k turned into $80k and then $90k and now 2 years on these units are selling $130k to $150k with a willing list of buyers.

So...the lesson I learnt from this, is that even though I was waiting for another $60k unit to come along, it never did, and really I needed to adjust to the market and say well $80k is still a good price for a return of $135 a week. The market thought that these units had peaked at $60k, but they hadnt. Because you never know what the peak is (in real terms until they start going from $130k down to $120k down to $110k as an eg) my opinion now is to buy in "whenever" I can afford it, and the cost of holding is negligible and this applies to whatever target market that I am assessing.

I hope this gives you an insight into my opinion and thanks for creating the poll.

Kind regards

Corsa

[see_change]

I don't really see the need for turning this poll into a general discussion about the pro's and con's about styles of investing etc blah , blah blah .

McKlusky asked a simple question . I answered it as best I could and someother people did as well.

Acey , we agree on much , but I think your initial reply was uncalled for. Sometimes it's best to step back and apologise rather than having to defend every statement. You just dig yourself into a bigger hole . In my job , I'm at my most dangerous if I think I know all the answers. Then I can really stuff up.

See Change

[Aceyducey]

hmmm,

I take See_Change's point, though my point was that no-one knows everything, and people should question their own assumptions, not the reverse :)

McKlusky I'm sorry for saying that I question your experience in investing. You did take it under a different interpretation than I had envisaged.

The rest of my posts I stand by. I gave my simple answer to this poll in my first reply.

Mc Klusky, I am still very interested in learning about your investing experience rather than simply debating how markets are doing enmasse. Regardless of market status it's possible to make money.

For your calculation purposes, I've just put in a neutral vote so I can watch the poll without having to click an extra time.

Cheers,

Aceyducey

[XBenX]

Another one of these entertaining threads.

Im sure we (as a group) would never be this hostile to each other in a face to face meeting.

The markets on my watch lists (sub markets within Sydney) are pretty stable possibly off a few %age points - there is the odd bargain around still

[Les]

G'day XbenX,

Im sure we (as a group) would never be this hostile to each other in a face to face meeting.
Right on, Xbenx !!

I call it the "caveat of the written word". Words are ciphers on paper - can often be ambiguous, mis-interpreted, rhetorical, unchanging, unemotional, etc.

When we're face to face, we have the benefit of - body language, tone of voice, visual stimulus, re-iteration (where one doesn't quite understand the other..), and common courtesy. We're THERE, facing each other - makes a huge difference, and limits the chance of being misunderstood.

And a nice glass of red, or a beer, can help too :D

Regards,

PS and I voted -0 to 10%.....

[Shushar]

Last September I sold my PPOR in Canterbury, NSW.

The house was 3 br, weatherboard/fibro house & I got at auction over $550,000.

I am quite sure if I was trying to sell my home today I would be lucky to get $500,000. for it.

My reasoning;


The overall cooling-off in the Sydney market
The house was targeted at first-home buyers. First home buyers now get concessions on stamp duty for properties up to $500,000.
Mr Egan's new taxes to discourage NSW property investors
Cheers,
Shushar

[ChrisOs]

I live on the coast in Adelaide and have noticed that there appeared to be a peak late last year and prices have been relatively stable since then. What seems to be happening though is that some homes and townhouses are taking longer to sell. My next door neighbours have had their house on the market since early in March, they are now onto their second agent and have not even had a serious offer (and I don't think it's because of their neighbours :D ).

Two other properties that are on the esplanade which would have sold in a few weeks before Christmas are still on the market after 8 weeks or so. This may be a seasonal variation, I'm not sure. None of the three vendors have yet reduced their price, in fact in the first few weeks of my neighbour's house being for sale it went from "$500K + " to "mid $500K". It is now at $550K with the second agent. They have talked to me at length about the issues they had with the first agent, but have not even considered that the price may be an issue.

WaySolid, I guess I am echoing your post here.

Regards,
ChrisOs.

[superted]

The agent will most likely agree with the vendors unrealistic price to get the listing. Then begins the game for the agent.

[McKlusky]

I live on the coast in Adelaide and have noticed that there appeared to be a peak late last year and prices have been relatively stable since then. What seems to be happening though is that some homes and townhouses are taking longer to sell. My next door neighbours have had their house on the market since early in March, they are now onto their second agent and have not even had a serious offer (and I don't think it's because of their neighbours :D ).

Two other properties that are on the esplanade which would have sold in a few weeks before Christmas are still on the market after 8 weeks or so. This may be a seasonal variation, I'm not sure. None of the three vendors have yet reduced their price, in fact in the first few weeks of my neighbour's house being for sale it went from "$500K + " to "mid $500K". It is now at $550K with the second agent. They have talked to me at length about the issues they had with the first agent, but have not even considered that the price may be an issue.

WaySolid, I guess I am echoing your post here.

Regards,
ChrisOs.

Chris,

There is only one reason a property wont sell and thats because its overpriced for the current market. And those 4 respondents who polled their target market has risen since late last year,can you tell the rest of the forum where they are :D

[Thommo]

Chris,

There is only one reason a property wont sell and thats because its overpriced for the current market. And those 4 respondents who polled their target market has risen since late last year,can you tell the rest of the forum where they are :D
Townsville (I'm not scrouge and don't check daily though)

Remember that it is a regional and goto; http://jobs.careerone.com.au/search/act_search_keyword.cfm?CLASSIFICATION_ID=&LOCATION_ID=30&Keywords=%22ernest+henry+mining+pty+ltd%22+or+%22mining%22+or+%22natural%22&VAR_DISPLAY=20&Show_Details=1&Ref=Decideint

[see_change]

Chris,

There is only one reason a property wont sell and thats because its overpriced for the current market. And those 4 respondents who polled their target market has risen since late last year,can you tell the rest of the forum where they are :D

Didn't answer poll as some places I buy have gone down , but most places in N'th Qland are still going up , certainly Rocky and Townsville where I have last bought have, and looking at the forum , so has cairns. BUT these places were the last places to start moving.

See Change

[Aceyducey]

There are also areas of Perth and Adelaide that have continued north...as have several of our properties in the ACT.

And our bits of Sydney are nicely flat.

Cheers,

Aceyducey

[willair]

This is only from the way i look at the real estate market in brisbane,
in the last 8 weeks i have sold 2 properties on the northside of brisbane
part of my fathers estate,i went for 20% on the poll,and imho i think thats
in the price area that i sold the properties for, one the contract fell over 3 times signed a new contract last week on that property that makes 4 contracts on that property alone,real estate sales people must work for there money these days i have sold all those properties by private means.in the areas that we invest in imho i would say that in my eyes last october was the high peak,and as of today some have gone backwards maybe 10 to 12%,but that only normal after so much overvalued properties being sold,anyway that only the way i see the market, and i do think investors attitude
are starting to change with real estate the horizon and crosscurrents are eventually
uncertain..
Good luck
willair

[corey]

Alice Springs is one of the markets that continued to grow after November last year by about 10%. It has levelled out now. An average 3 bed will sell at about $230K return gross 6%, Two bed flat $130K return of 7% and a 1 bed flat $85K return of 9%. Note I wrote average. The market goes from very average to plush. Just to add the towns vacant rate is approx 4%. Well priced rentals will go off within a few days if asking these returns.

Corey.

[kph]

I actually agreed with Acey's original reply...all except the bit questioning the investment credentials.
I personally buy a property, when I spot one that needs to be bought, regardless of the state of the market.
BTW how do you determine that the market has dropped by 'x' or more percent ?
Unless you are comparing the sales history on the same property and note a decrease in the latest selling price, where does this "decrease" in market price come from ??

KPH

[forrestd]

i think most people understand it's not a quantative/statistical survey result yet merely a gut feel after watching a given market for years on end and simply observing and commenting on current trends as they see it for their target market, why does it have to be more precise/scientific, the original question doesnt call for it.

[McKlusky]

i think most people understand it's not a quantative/statistical survey result yet merely a gut feel after watching a given market for years on end and simply observing and commenting on current trends as they see it for their target market, why does it have to be more precise/scientific, the original question doesnt call for it.

This is absolutley correct. Property pricing is not an exact science. You need to have a feel for the market you are concentrating on.

kph, you say you buy a property regardless of the state of the market. Thats crazy as all investors know there are good times and bad times to buy property. At the moment there is low yields and high prices (still), experienced investors know this and stay out of the market, hence the near disapearance of investors in todays market.

Why would you buy a properrty in this market when you can buy one with a much better deal in a couple of years or could have a few years ago.

Dont believe that 'time in the market' is more important than timing the market. Its not better, just a different way of investing in property and the for my style of investing, a much inferior way.

As to the poll. It has panned out pretty predictably. Except for the high percentage of responses stating that property is still rising in price.

I find it wierd that most of the country is stable or falling in price but a few areas are still rising. It could be that some respondents misinterpret their markets or dont have that gut feel mentioned above. Its one thing to say prices are rising but the proof of the pudding is are the properties selling (and quickly)? in this rising market. If they are not then prices arent rising. See the post from ChrisOS for evidence of this.

[Thommo]

I find it wierd that most of the country is stable or falling in price but a few areas are still rising. It could be that some respondents misinterpret their markets or dont have that gut feel. Its one thing to say prices are rising but the proof of the pudding is are the properties selling (and quickly)? in this rising market. If they are not then prices arent rising. See the post from ChrisOS for eveidence of this.
Why did you ask us if you won't believe us?

I apologise if my response did not confirm your bias.

Thommo

[McKlusky]

Why did you ask us if you won't believe us?

I apologise if my response did not confirm your bias.

Thommo

I dont think im biased but do you agree or disagree with my assesment?

[Thommo]

I dont think im biased but do you agree or disagree with my assesment?
I understood the original Q and agree with your assessment.

Properties in my local area have gone up since Sep '03 too.

[Les]

G'day McK,

Thats crazy as all investors know there are good times and bad times to buy property
Does that mean Jan Somers was crazy too when she did just that? If it worked for her, why not buy now?

HOW could that work (I hear you ask.. :D ) Well, how about this:-

Why would you buy a properrty in this market when you can buy one with a much better deal in a couple of years or could have a few years ago.
To me there might be a couple of assumptions there ("...when you can buy one with a much better deal in a couple of years"):-

1. Is the area you are buying in REALLY going to drop in the future? As a broad example, Brisbane has virtually never DROPPED after a boom in recent times (last 25 years). Sometimes it's flat (for years) but negative drops are minimal (with the exception of a few - i.e. not many - areas within the "Brisbane" area).

2. Are Interest rates NOT going to increase over the next two years? Why not buy now, (in an area like 1. above) and fix the current interest rates. Wouldn't kph (or anyone else) be better off that way?

But, of course, I am also assuming here in suggesting that Interest rates WILL rise..... :D

3. As investors have left the market (as you say), won't it affect vacancy rates (and therefore rents) to make your purchase at this time both easier to rent, and return more immediately?

4. If things really are as bad as you seem to think, who's to say that lenders aren't about to drastically tighten their lending requirements - or, in other words, who's to say you'll be able to buy in 2 years time (unless you've got lots of cash...)

I do agree that this may well NOT work in some (most??) areas today - it really is a matter of "knowing YOUR market". But, as with the sharemarket, even when a raging bear is growling, there are some stocks going up.

So, crazy?????? Hmmmm - maybe, maybe not !!!??? To me, it really depends who you are, and where you are....

Dont believe that 'time in the market' is more important than timing the market. Its not better, just a different way of investing in property and the for my style of investing, a much inferior way.
Fair enough, McK - if "timing" suits your style, then that's what you'll use. Good luck with it,

Regards,
Les, with his devil's advocate hat on :D

[abcdiamond]

I find it wierd that most of the country is stable or falling in price but a few areas are still rising. It could be that some respondents misinterpret their markets or dont have that gut feel mentioned above. Its one thing to say prices are rising but the proof of the pudding is are the properties selling (and quickly)? in this rising market. If they are not then prices arent rising. See the post from ChrisOS for evidence of this.
Could it be that some people are going by the median figures produced by organisations such as http://www.homepriceguide.com.au/snapshot/
who have produced figures like this:
Median House Price for Postcode 4165
Feb-04 $329,000
Mar-04 $330,000
Apr-04 $339,500
May-04 $349,500
Jun-04 $354,875

To a lot of people this will indicate an upward trend, with a slight stalling in March.

[Aceyducey]

Why would you buy a properrty in this market when you can buy one with a much better deal in a couple of years or could have a few years ago.
One good reason, you can't buy a property in the past or in the future. The only time you can actually buy a property is in the present. The past is over, the future is a hope or fear (or a gamble).

Another reason, if you're following a long-term buy & hold strategy, the precise portion of the cycle in which you buy a property tends to be averaged out over several cycles. And long term buy & hold isn't an inferior strategy, it's simply a different strategy that suits certain people better than shorter term buy & flips do.

A good comparison I find is looking at the effects of buying shares over a period longer than 20 years. If you buy at the peak vs the trough of prices, it actually makes little difference to your portfolio's value over these longer time periods.

Another good reason: the time value of money. $200K cash today, at 3% inflation, is worth $171K in 5 years, or $147K in 10 years..... at 6% inflation it's worth only $146K in 5 and $107K in 10 years.

If you buy a property that merely grows a few percent ahead of inflation over a 5-10 year period you're still getting ahead.

Best of all, of course, is if you can buy properties with future dollars in today's prices - that's the place of vendor finance :)

At the end of the day everyone chooses the strategy that they feel is best for them.

McKlusky I respect your right to pick the best strategy for you & I hope you equally respect others' choices to follow their own best strategy - even when to the rest of us it mightn't seem the best.

Cheers,

Aceyducey

[kph]

McK,
I stand by what I said.....
You can get too bogged down with over analysing the market and trying to predicting the future.

Whos to say the market will be better in 2 yrs time. How big an assumption is that ??
You can't lump ALL property in the same basket.
There is always a worthwhile property out there that can be bought and sometimes even resold in a short time for a gain.
It depends on what you're buying, where you're buying and what you do with it.

Admittedly,its better during a boom as your gains are greater, but that does not mean there are not gains to be had in the current market, or even under worse market conditions.

Under those conditions building does not come to a grinding halt, neither do property sales. There is underlying demand there, regardless of the state of the market.

That is the basis under which I operate and this has included periods of interest rates at 18% and property market slowdowns including the mid 90s', so my experience to date tells me to buy when I can afford to buy regardless of the state of the market.

BTW, I don't sense any price retreat in the two markets I am interested in.
In fact the feedback I am getting is that there is a chronic shortage of listings and a pent up demand from buyers, especially first home buyers.

Prices are not rising as they were up to the end of last year, but they certainly are not reducing either.

Cheers,
KPH

[Thommo]

It is reported in this morn's Townsville Bulletin that a 2br unit in the new "Urban Quarter" development just completing was bought for$156 off the plan and sold last week for $256.

As I said, my area of interest is increasing.

T