keithj
18-07-2004, 08:00 PM
Ross Gittins in todays Herald interprets the timeliness & accuracy of the 4 organisations (CBA, REIA, APM & ABS) that track property prices.
The full story (http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/07/16/1089694563139.html).
The summary -
Now, when you look at the 24 house price changes for the March quarter produced by the four measures for six capital cities, you observe two things. First, the two more timely indicators (the ones with the higher proportions of March quarter sales) are the ones that most clearly show nationwide prices falling during the quarter. It's the two less timely indicators that have nationwide prices still rising.
Second, the cities where the fall in prices is most clearly indicated are Melbourne, followed by Sydney. It's possible prices were still rising modestly in Adelaide, Perth and Canberra in the March quarter.
Taking account of some highly preliminary figures for the June quarter, the Reserve Bank concludes that "for Australia as a whole, prices for houses and apartments appear to have fallen in 2004, with this result mainly due to developments in the two largest cities".
So there doesn't seem much doubt the turning point has been reached though, thankfully, prices aren't falling at the dramatic rate the Reserve's earlier, preliminary figures were suggesting.
The full story (http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/07/16/1089694563139.html).
The summary -
Now, when you look at the 24 house price changes for the March quarter produced by the four measures for six capital cities, you observe two things. First, the two more timely indicators (the ones with the higher proportions of March quarter sales) are the ones that most clearly show nationwide prices falling during the quarter. It's the two less timely indicators that have nationwide prices still rising.
Second, the cities where the fall in prices is most clearly indicated are Melbourne, followed by Sydney. It's possible prices were still rising modestly in Adelaide, Perth and Canberra in the March quarter.
Taking account of some highly preliminary figures for the June quarter, the Reserve Bank concludes that "for Australia as a whole, prices for houses and apartments appear to have fallen in 2004, with this result mainly due to developments in the two largest cities".
So there doesn't seem much doubt the turning point has been reached though, thankfully, prices aren't falling at the dramatic rate the Reserve's earlier, preliminary figures were suggesting.