A second peak in Sydney housing pricing? What do you think....

[Aceyducey]

With the slowdown & now that tax time is over with, it appears there may be some increased activity in the Sydney market.

With the market slowdown, what do people think is the likelihood of a second peak, or a mini-boom, in Sydney housing prices?

From the SMH today:


Defying talk of a property market slowdown, auctions in Sydney's inner west were buzzing yesterday with many strong sales, large crowds and smashed reserve prices.

From top-end luxury mansions to more modest cottages in the first home owner price range, impressive results were recorded across the region. Across Sydney, the clearance rate was an encouraging 57.3 per cent.

.....

The many first home hunters who attended the Elders Enfield auction said their hopes of being able to buy a home had been raised by the market slowing down.

One hopeful first home hunter, Long Nguyen, attending his first auction, could see the tidy home's potential.

"I have just started looking for a home," Mr Nguyen, 27, said.

"Now that prices have come down, buying a home seems a bit more realistic."

Source: http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/07/17/1089694613402.html?oneclick=true

Cheers,

Aceyducey

[keithj]

See The Australian (http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,10175567%255E16946,00.html) this morning for supporting evidence


.....

Sydney's largest unit developer, Harry Triguboff, says that in the last two months the Sydney unit market has become stronger. In Surfers Paradise and Brisbane the market is even stronger than Sydney.

Just as Triguboff played a big role in curbing rates, he may be the spark that sets them rising again.

Triguboff and other property developers know that if the market gathers momentum, Macfarlane will be forced to lift rates sharply, with disastrous consequences.

But there is a real danger of another boom in the medium term because of a contraction of supply caused by the lack of co-ordination between banks, developers and councils - particularly in Sydney.

According to Triguboff, Sydney rents have been going up for at least six months and are now well above the levels of last December.


.....

[GreatPig]

in the first home owner price range
I've seen places in the $600-$650K price range in western Sydney advertised as being ideal for the first home buyer.

Not sure which first home buyers they're talking about, but somehow I don't think it's the young couples on a combined income of about $50K-$60K a year.

GP

[superted]

I am more interested in what the price (reserve etc) was acheived at auction. The clearance rate may be just that vendors have become more realistic or they have been lured into taking a lower price (well the market dictates this anyway).

A second peak can only occur if the price moves up not the clearance rate percentage.

Trigubof in my mind is the classic ramper as he has the most to gain and loose. If anyone saw him around 3 months ago on Sunday program you could see he had RE agents optimism, which at that time was all fluff.

[thefirstbruce]

re mini boom, I was talking to a Suncorp Metway loans manager the other day about macro stuff. He confirmed many are realizing equities are fully priced now, and are coming back for a sniff around property. That includes me. I am finding most vendors still want last years prices, so I am sticking to value adding.

[Aceyducey]

Ted,

Read the entire article, I only extracted bits. It does talk about prices moving north again.....

Cheers,

Aceyducey

[House_Keeper]

Mini Boom? Mmmm Not in the area where I live (Kingsgrove). I still see the same houses for sale that have been sitting for sale for a while. There wasn't even one auction in the suburb last week, while last year there was a few autions per week.

The SMH article seem to be the usual from the press: attention-grabbing claims backed up by a few anecdotes. It seems far from being a rigourous analysis.

As far as Triguboff is concerned, he has always tried to talk up the market. Nothing new there.

If Sydney was really booming again, I would be really concerned as the rba may then raise rates again, affecting the whole economy.

However, it is not hard to find people who think that because prices are 10% from their peak last year, houses are 'cheap'.

Cheers,