next hot suburb

[alpina]

With 2003 well and truly started, where does everyone think the hot suburb for '03 is going to be and why? Eg, do you see a suburb just waiting to be gentrified or rezoned.

Although, my interest is predominantly in Sydney, it would be interesting to see what's happening around the country.

For me, i've been looking at redfern for ages, but i suspect its 5 to 10 years out still :)

Any cystal ballers present? :)

Julie

[brains]

I would put forward Ettalong on the bottom end of the Cenral Coast NSW, its predominantly a quiet bayside holiday town, but they are now building a mega resort/casino thing, rebuilding the local tile pub to a 4 level palace, have approval for the fast ferry to Circular Quay, Sydney (45 min). If these arent the signs of a place on the move then i'll run naked down the main street. (At 4am):)

The entry price now for a small 2/3 bedder on a 500m block within walking distance of the water is about $350k - $400k
which is pretty low considering its proximity to Sydney and the improvemnts happening.

There are no ultra trendy cafes in the main street yet, so thats a good sign, if i see one opening and i havnt bought a property there yet, i'll know ive missed the boat.

[sanchez]

Hey Brains

How do you think Umina compares to Ettalong? Do you think it has similar prospects?

Sanchez

[alpina]

what do you guys think of wollongong - specifically, the beach strip?

no idea what they sell for, but remember driving along there a few weeks ago and wondering.

julie

[see_change]

Brains

There isn't on in the main street , but there is one in a street on the right side of the mainstreet facing away from Umina . It faces opposite the big hole in the ground with the concrete base...

We went there last easter ( 02) and the food was nice , though the speed of service left a lot to be desired.

I made a list of all the agents in Ettalong and umina , and If I recall correctly , I think there were 13-14 in Ettalong.

I talked to a few , and at that stage they were all amazed by the amount of growth , and expected it to slow down ( but it didn't .... ). They also said the area was now an extension of the Sydney market and took its lead from sydney.

I think that the whole area , including Umina and Woy Woy have to be good long term investments, though Ettalong has already moved significantly in the current cycle. I will be buying there at some stage , probably with the aim to doing a small development., but I think it will be more in mind for the next cycle rather than with expectations of large immediate capital growth.

see change

[brains]

see change

I know the one you mean, thats a nice but standard cafe, i mean the ones similar to say..Terrigal or the inner suburban Sydney types, (trendy focus on the coffee not the food) then you'll know money is moving into the suburb.

I think there is 13-14 real estates in both towns combined, surely not that many in Ettalong...but i could be wrong..i'll check next time im down there.

Sanchez,

I live in Umina Beach, and my house has increased in value at about 15 - 20% compounding for the last 2 years, but im pretty much right on the water, so it might be different to the rest of Umina but wouldnt be much higher.

As for future growth, i dont have a crystal ball but id say there would be a bit, just not as much as the last couple of years. (Residex has a 10% growth rate for Umina Beach for the next 5 years)

[davids]

Hi Alpina,

Wollongong has enjoyed an enourmous growth over the past 3 years. some prices in the northern suburbs actually reflect prices in Sydney

Davids

[JoannaK]

Hi Alpina,

my husband and i have been investing in Wollongong at the moment, particularly in North Wollongong near the beach and in the northern suburbs. We'll be continuing with this for the next 2 to 3 years.

David, you're right....the only difference between the gong, particularly the northern suburbs, and sydney these days is about 45 minutes...prices are very much on par with sydney.

[davids]

Hi Joanna,

I live in the gong and I am very interested as to what you believe is good value at the moment. Living in the area is it easy to see all the sudden rises as 'excessive' and put off buying.

I have concentrated in the southern suburbs which were always considered the poor cousin to the north. However, this region to has experienced significant growth mainly due to FHOG.

Another interesting aside to Wollongong is the proliferation of R/E agencies in the area. I wonder if and when a crunch comes how many will survive.

regards
Davids

[yeslist]

Hi All
I find it an interesting phenomena ie. Investors chasing potential growth areas.
Would it not be a better idea to stay in the tried and true blue chip areas that you are familiar with and sniff out the deals that pop out of the box on a regular basis.
Motivated sellers are everpresent in every area even the blue chippers.
Some people don't like to put all their eggs in one basket but I say "it all depends on how strong your basket is".
Having said that, I think it is fun to speculate on future growth areas whislt waiting for the next real deal to show itself.
Kind regards
Simon

[JoannaK]

Originally posted by davids


I live in the gong and I am very interested as to what you believe is good value at the moment.


I grew up in the gong and moved to Sydney about 11 years ago....when I was living there I always told my dad to invest in Cliff Road. I was a kid and didn't know anything so of course he never listened to me....now who's kicking himself....?

Anyway, back to the point....currently i'm interested in Bulli, Woonona, Towradgi and Corrimal. I've seen enormous rises in Thirroul and Austinmer, but I haven't noticed rises to the same extent in these suburbs, although they have risen. Woonona and Corrimal are both experiencing rises now prompted by new unit development and a new developments currently in the pipeline, that haven't been undertaken in the area for many years. I'm positive you'd get some good deals in these areas, and especially if you're into reno's.

I'd also look at Coniston - it's always been the ugly duckling of the gong.....my grandmother used to live there and i remember hating that area when i was a kid, but I wouldn't look at Mt St Thomas.

Personally I'm not too keen on anything south past Unanderra (or even Figtree most probably)....although.....Shellharbour is a definate goer in my opinion.


Originally posted by davids


Another interesting aside to Wollongong is the proliferation of R/E agencies in the area. I wonder if and when a crunch comes how many will survive.



I have found it extremely frustrating and annoying dealing with agents in the area....their mentality is so BACKWARDS!! They are so not investment savvy....anything outside the square is just unthinkable! I hope a few of them do go out of business, although I won't name names


NOTE: Disclaimer Disclaimer Disclaimer....personal opinions only!!

[ocean view]

Brains is spot on! that market will jump 20-30% this yr. If any one disagrees I will give them odds of 5-1..

2003 won't be it's best year 2004 will be better! As infultructure will take place 2004. But 25% Min growth for two yrs is not a bad thing.

That comment above about Blue chip areas are a better idea & leave speculating to the brave. Well I will take the brave 40% returns per year using common sense seems better than Blue chip to me/

Why don't we have all have a go & pick a post code for the median home price rise for 2003 .. Lets see what type of gurus we are..For the record mine is Banksia Beach Qld 4507.

Last year was Noosaville QLD AROUND 42%


cheers ocean....

[just do it]

Take a look at Forestville in Sydney 2087. Median price 500K beside Roseville median price 850k. Look for the median price at Forestville to go to 625K. Difference between these two suburbs over the past 20 years has been 25%. History repeats itself.

[XBenX]

What about bribie island ?

/me waits for a nibble......

[Jamie]

Thats a well baited hook you have there XBenX :p

[ocean view]

Ben"

I only like fresh bait, & the question on your hook is old .
4 Towns on that island, My choice is one of them.

I 'll just through a line in & look forward to your choice..

Cheers Bribie

[XBenX]

Originally posted by Jamie
Thats a well baited hook you have there XBenX :p

I dont know how to be subtle :P

[XBenX]

Originally posted by ocean view
Ben"

I only like fresh bait, & the question on your hook is old .
4 Towns on that island, My choice is one of them.

I 'll just through a line in & look forward to your choice..

Cheers Bribie

haha I dont expect to catch anything will a flashing neon *bait* sign

how about I sponsor your bribie island self promotion infomercial instead ?

[ocean view]

Ben

No need for your help, but I thank u for your offer anyway.
Hundreds & Hundreds infront of you have the GIG.

They are called retirees.

Maybe My comments seem to have come through a little (say commercial) but I can assure u they are not. I apoligise if this is the case.

If you believe in the comments that you made , well so be it!.
But others who know me may share different opinions. I also have many properties in 4 other states & two other countries. But I will not be working for the advertising agency for those towns either.

I simply have an opinion on that area. It happens to be that island for the best financial gains I believe one can gain for limited outlay. Thats what I was asked in the post & I will continue to offer those type of responses. Why don't you investigate yourself? , u may change your mind & bank balance?

Myself & thousands of people who invested on the north side (noosa) of the sunshine coast QLD last year, are not passing comments similar to yours. My lead source has been looked after & I thank her for the information that led me to that area..

I am going to purchase another 30 to 40 there over the next 3 years. So it would be nice to not cause more interest. But be as it is,, the retiree market controls this market & u & I willl never change that.

Happy fishing!
ocean

[XBenX]

For a neon bait thread Ive got some pretty good bites

Ocean - dont take things too seriously :)

Im not putting your investment choices down - infact my extended family has had some nice returns from Bribie Is.

I was just having some fun regarding your original post about Bribie Is..

Keep smiling :D

[sanchez]

Ocean View

If you don't mind me asking, what's your secret to being able to afford 30-40 properties. Is it simply because you go for positive cash flow, or does it depend on a high income from other sources? I sure wish I could buy 30-40 properties in the next 3 years!!

Sanchez

[ocean view]

Ben no Harm done I guess & I have notice your Humour over the past 3 months. At times I have LOL alot. No problem this end..

And always smiling.

Sanchez..

I only buy properties with a delayed settlement. If I exchange I allow myself at least 6 to 18mth delay to pruchase. In extremely Hot areas it allows my purchase to come in at <80% LVR. Then a low doc loan to finish finance+ 6 to 12 months interest.

But you can not afford any misjudgements in the area of speculating the growth. But practice makes it easier.

When interest on lending is 6-7% & growth factors are 25- 45% it makes it worthwhile.

cheers ocean

[sanchez]

Ocean

Sounds like an excellent system you've got going. As you said, you wouldn't want to make any gross misjudgements, but hell, what's your worst case scenario - you cant rent it out and cover your interest? Then just sell it. It seems like an excellent return for fairly limited risk.

Anyway - I dont want to get too personal, but do you do this full time? By the amount of dealings you do, it seems like a full time job. How do you find so many willing to have a delayed settlement?

Sanchez

[ocean view]

Sanchez it isn't easy I can tell u. fulltime next year.
But takes about 3 hours a day to work on.

Land has been my best returns in the last 12 months. If you can find a developer who needs holding deposits to get his finance approved to develope the subdivision u will get some good results after registration of land. As he or she needs to lower the purchase price at the start of subdivision & only sell half to create interest & prove to the bank that it is a secure venture. Then in the last 50% of the subdivision Developer sells the rest for big mark ups. Which helps the price on yours rise. The developer is in your camp pushing his profit & yours (well thats the plan anyway)

But always go through the negatives first. EG.. Why will that particular subdivision rise in value? Have I a back up plan if growth rate is only 10%?
With experience over time u will know where to invest without concern.

a House & land contruction off the plan. People in general place a hOME & LAND PACKAGE at todays prices without allowing %growth factors(due to not knowing any better). I then purchase it today & not needing to settle for 8- 10 months, until finished (Vendors are happy with $20-$30k profit from the original land purchase)
The agents don't tell them to inflate the price at exchange due to the Buyer making the profit & having a chance to re list the home again with the agent after construction.. Two commissions for agents. I suppose the original vendors also make profit , Just not as much. But cash is cash & it may be needed to go onto something else to continue the cycle.

There are many ways... It is all about DELAY in purchase..Longer the time the more secure & higher return (not all cases!!!) But thats life.


cheers ocean

[Kevmeister]

ocean view:

How do you find these land developments at their inception? Has the developer started advertising and you just get in early, or do you have "advance warning" even before this?

Cheers

[ocean view]

kevmeister

I always pick an area first where I can construct a path towards growth. That is the most important part.
Then within that area look to land releases through council or word of mouth. Prices have to be within the plan to profit. But my stratergy is based on retiree areas only....

Sydney is my only other source of information & buying there at the moment is not an option for those growth rates.(except ettalong,,sorry brains)

If a land developer is selling off land & has sold 50% well that still gives u a little room to move. Anything after 70% WELL lets say your not giving yourself much potential,,

I get in a plane & head off for a week end & just drive, take pictures & repeat the cycle until I can satisfy my rulings. Find a place & make a move. But the whole sunshine coast is riddled with these types. Some better than others for obvious reasons..

cheers ocean

[brains]

Ocean

I agree with you about Sydney, the rent returns make it prohibitive and i think growth will be flat for a while.

I like your concept, there is a small development close to me at the moment that might be worth looking at. (central coast)

pm me if you want to have a chat about it.

I just exchanged on a property in Woy Woy thats a pretty interesting story, (got a great deal) i'll post it next time cause i cant type properly on this laptop:)

My solicitor thinks im crazy cause i just exchanged on a property on the 6th Jan and walk in with another contract on the 15th.

[XBenX]

good stuff brains :)

thats what I like to hear

[NIF]

Regarding previous posts about Wollongong, I have been interested in Bulli for some time. It seems to have most things the neighbouring suburb of Thirroul has (beaches, good train & road links to Sydney) yet is considerably cheaper.

An agent I spoke to said prices just jump up on the North side of Bulli Pass (the highway dividing the suburbs). Do any Gong locals know if there's a material reason for this eg housing commission, crime etc or is just that Thirroul is more prestigious.

I am particularly interested because I believe the new "Point" land release there on the beach overlooking Sandon Point will allow back street access between the 2 suburbs (at present the only link is along a busy highway).

Perhaps this link as well as the prestigious nature of the new development will cause Thirroul prices to spill into Bulli in the near future ?

Any opinions/local knowledge on this ?