The Coming Property Crash

[yee3890]

I have see the news from Jenman websites states that the property crash will be coming??? see articles below

THE COMING PROPERTY CRASH
The property tip of the year

“The real estate market will crash. It always does. And the bigger the boom, the bigger the bust. Anyone who says real estate always goes up and it's the world's best investment does not know much about real estate.”

So we wrote near the end of 2001 in a series of four articles called Boom & Bust.

Since then the real estate market has continued to boom. Our real estate critics have laughed. “You were wrong. The prices are still going up.” Really? Then go back and read what we said. You’ll realise that it’s more dangerous than ever to be investing in real estate today. In most areas today – especially Sydney and Melbourne – property is overpriced. Its peak will probably turn out to be late 2001 to mid 2002, around the time we issued our first warnings.

Gertrude Stein said, “Everybody gets so much information every day that they lose their common sense.” And that’s what’s been happening in real estate over the past year. In many areas, the real estate boom has been maintained by massive amounts of misinformation, self-interest, cover-ups (yes, that’s right cover-ups), greed, ignorance, naivety and stupidity. The social consequences are frightening.

It might be called ‘The Real Estate Game’ but what’s happening in real estate today is not a game. Not at all. It’s a serious social issue that involves the financial and emotional well-being of hundreds of thousands of good people, many of whom are being (or have been) duped into buying the wrong real estate at the wrong time.

Primarily, there are two types of real estate – the family home and investment real estate. The major consideration when buying either must always be SAFETY.

If you’re buying a family home today, make sure you can handle the payments. If you intend to live in it for many years and you can comfortably make those repayments, go ahead. If not, DON’T BUY.

If you’re investing in real estate today, you are almost certainly taking an enormous risk. It takes little skill to buy property. And sometimes, especially in times of a rapidly rising market, it takes little skill to profit from property. In most areas, these are not those times.

Here’s the best real estate tip at the moment:

If you plan to invest in real estate, go to your newsagent and buy The Economist (May 31 – June 6 issue). It may be the best eight dollars you’ve spent for a long time

[Aceyducey]

Originally posted by yee3890
If you’re investing in real estate today, you are almost certainly taking an enormous risk. It takes little skill to buy property. And sometimes, especially in times of a rapidly rising market, it takes little skill to profit from property. In most areas, these are not those times.



I would call this entire article sensationalism, particularly the extract above.

I do read all the articles on Jenman's site as he has an interesting opinion on what is happening on the market, however I tend not to give them much weight. They are targetted at the lowest common denominator & are highly risk-adverse.

Let's face it - very few people become wealthy without taking risks - calculated ones.

And any risk can be managed provided you do your research, understand your capabilities & have a good support network.

I wonder, is Neil Jenman still buying property?

Cheers,

Aceyducey

[yee3890]

Hi Aceyducey,

You are right!!However, what if the most people predict the trend of the propert market will down, do you think u need to take this one as consideration when u purchase new propert??:D

[always_learning]

I agree with Acey�fs comments about taking calculated risks.

From my research true investors (real investors, in which I mean successful investors measured over many years of ongoing success) are more risk adverse than normal people.

As investors we should all be Seeking Opportunities whilst considering and putting into effect plans to minimize all reasonable risks.

Investors are not risk takers but opportunity seekers.

Successful investing is not about taking risks to generate potential rewards, that is called gambling or speculation. Successful investing is about seeking out exceptional opportunities and then taking every reasonable steps towards minimizing the risk in pursuing that exceptional opportunity.

Another wonderful �gtheory�h from Always_Learning�cjust don�ft ask me how I am going in real life.

Happy investing!

[see_change]

Few doubt there will be a correction at some stage . Matter of debate is when.

In Mr Jenman keeps repeating this , sooner or later he will be correct.

Then he can say I told you so.

If I had paid attention to his advise at the end of 2001, my assett base would be considerably smaller than it is now.

The question for me at the moment is, How will the market go over the next two years. I don't know that and neither does Mr Jenman, BUT I'm not going to sit on the sidelines waiting for the sky to fall in. That is my decision based on my circumstances.

see change

[Garry K]

I agree with Acey's sentiments.

Property does go in cycles and you need to be aware of where the market is. Each state is usually different - eg Brisbane lagged Melbourne, which lagged Sydney.

Using the Median House Price as published by the Real Estate Institute, for Melbourne, I calculated the following:

From 1982 to 1990 the Median moved from $50,500 to $141,500 -equivalent to a compounding rate of 13.7%. Pretty impressive.
Then, it stalled, burst, collapsed (or what adjective you wish to use). In 1995, the Median had struggled to $144,500, equivalent to a compounding rate of 0.4%. Not so good!

If you bought at the peak, say 1990, you're not a happy camper in 1995.
Hopefully you don't sell, as the Median moved from $144,500 in 1995 to $327,500 in 2002, an equivalent compounding rate of 12.7%.

So, even if you did by at the last peak, 1990 for $141,500, in 2002 the property was "valued" at $327,500 - which is a 7.2% compounding rate. Not too bad a result.

The 21 year compounding equivalent from 1981 to 2002 is 10%. But don't forget about inflation - not sure of average, but now around 3%.


Is now the equivalent to 1990?

I think it's shaping up that way.

Geekay

[Aceyducey]

Originally posted by yee3890
Hi Aceyducey,

You are right!!However, what if the most people predict the trend of the propert market will down, do you think u need to take this one as consideration when u purchase new property?

Yee,

Firstly - who are 'most people'? And do they buy property regularly?

In any case, I don't believe that the majority sentiment is that property prices will fall.

I do believe that media & expert opinion is that property prices will stop going up at the rate they have been in major cities over the last 24 months. Whether prices stabilise, fall or rise slowly is still a matter of considerable debate & there are likely to be significant variations in every suburb & town across the country.

I don't weigh opinions highly when I purchase property. I take into account the facts & figures & then get a feel for population & fashion movements. To outperform the market you must outthink the market.

Anyone who invests in line with market sentiment & opinions is not an investor, they're a gambler :)

As a famous politician didn't say: 'property investing is the art of the real'.

Cheers,

Aceyducey

[brains]

Acey wrote:


"I don't weigh opinions highly when I purchase property. I take into account the facts & figures & then get a feel for population & fashion movements. To outperform the market you must outthink the market."


Im not sure if youre correct. What about the saying "the trend is your friend" dont go against the trend or you will lose, which means you cant out think or second guess the market.



"Anyone who invests in line with market sentiment & opinions is not an investor, they're a gambler "

Have you got this one backwards?

[adaran01]

"All doomsday cults are correct, the world will end, its only the timing they get wrong"

When property does not increase in value (1990s), these people tell us 'its no use theres no money in property any more, technology stocks thats the way to go, they go on and tell us how wrong we have managed our finances, and seem to enjoy rubbing our noses in the fact that property is such a poor performer.

Then when property finally catches up in price after remaining stagnent for 6 or 7 years, all of a sudden we are all fools for investing in property.

All I can say is that I have been a property investor for 8 years, and this is my first boom, Ive done very well out of it. Regardless of wether I buy tomorrow or another 2 years time, all I know is that as long as I keep buying, use common sense, coupled with the experience I have gained, when the next boom comes in 10 or 15 years time, I will never have to work again, which is a choice most people do not have, and I won't even be 40 when that happens.

Of course I could take the other path, and be scared of my own shadow, never take a calculated risk. Some of the points mentioned are quite valid, I think that the house prices will not increase much more, and could well fall short term (not as much as my superannuation of course -25%). I personally think city units are overpriced and oversupplied, but then most property investors can see that.

I am looking forward to a time when rents will catch up to the price of houses, I have not bought any property for the last 3 years (in hindsight a mistake), simply because I don't think the rental yeild is high enough.

regards Adam

[sbe]

Hmmm..

But Brains, what about those who invest against market trends (contrarian investors), and end up in front?


At any rate, sensationalist "the sky is falling", "pending doom", "market crashes" are all much more exiting than "slowing down of market","market flattens out" that is much more likely. And it sells more papers / magazines....

Of course, economists always get these things right too......;)

Mind you, if enough people chant this, it will become a self fulfilling prohesy - people will become scared, then spend like they're scared, panic and sell of IP's cheaply dropping the market etc etc.

Me - If the numbers work (with some safety margin - lower rent, higher rates), go for it.

Cheerio

Simon.

[brains]

sbe wrote:

"But Brains, what about those who invest against market trends (contrarian investors), and end up in front??

I know some contrarian investors do well, and its a valid investing philosophy but isnt that a different thing to saying that people who invest in line with market trends are gambling, no?

[Aceyducey]

Originally posted by brains
Acey wrote:

"Anyone who invests in line with market sentiment & opinions is not an investor, they're a gambler "

Have you got this one backwards?

Brains,

Notice I mentioned market sentiment & opinions, not trends.

Trends to me are figures-based, not opinion-based.

As I said in my last post, I look at the figures first & that's how I determine where the market is & is probably heading - ie: the trend :)

I'll phrase it differently (if less elegantly):

Anyone who forms their IP purchase & sales decisions based on what they hear in the media and from friends without placing due weight on the figures is a gambler.

Also, bear in mind that the trend is generally drawn along the average line. The average is around the middle result you would expect. In property this is equivalent to people who simply buy & live in property.

Anyone who can't do better than the market averages, is probably in the wrong game & should find one where they can outperform the market.


Cheers,

Aceyducey

[Ross Sneddon]

Hi

Like others, I read "Henny Penny Jenman's" website and interpret most of what he says and writes as sensationalism. I think most investors agree that the market is overheated, but that is not a boom nor will it be necessarily be followed by a bust.

It is simply an overheated market and it will flatten, or already has done so, and will wait for the rental market to catch up, supply and demand to sort itself out, a few other economic factors to have their effect and then move ahead again.

Some parts of the market may ease back a little, some just simply flatten and wait for time to pass and everything catch up, but, when Henny Penny flaps his wings and makes a lot of noise, the sky is really not falling, just take it for what it is, a sensationalist trying hard to keep his name and face before the public.

I will also study the facts and figures, listen but not be heavily swayed by the talk of "most people" who don't back the talk with facts and reality.

We all know that the market will rise, plateau and perhaps fall from time to time but in the long term (5 or 10 years or more), there will be a steady and progressive increase in our net portfolio wealth.

Regards

Ross

[yee3890]

Hi all,

Please have a look for the following link for the prediction for the future popert market of Australia.


http://www.economist.com/surveys/di...tory_id=1794873

:D

[sanchez]

Does everyone remember how property prices were going to drop 25% as soon as the olympics were over? What about how the world was going to go into chaos when the y2k bug hit?

In my limited experience as an amateur phsychologist, there will always be people who enjoy telling you how many problems you are going to have, what a mistake you have made and how bad things are going to get (usually not for them though, because they saw it coming). Sometimes, just sometimes, you start to fall for their hype, and as soon as they see you getting drawn in or starting to become unsure, they are satisfied. That's what these people are all about - getting a high from unsettling others because it makes them feel powerful. Or sometimes its simply because they haven't gone ahead and done things for themselves and they need to convince themselves that everybody else is making a mistake. Often these people don't even know that they are doing it, its just part of human nature.

Sure, maybe the prices will stop rising, maybe they will even fall a bit, but we knew that when we went into it didn't we. If you were given a gold plated guarantee that everything would go to plan then everybody would be a property investor. This does not mean that you throw caution to the wind, just that you look at the trends, know the upside and downside and be prepeared for all (or most) of the possible scenarios, and for heavens sake, don't buy into the hype of the naysayers. As I once heard the great philosopher Rene Rivkin say, some people will tell you the worst case scenario is going to happen, some people will tell you that the best case scenario is, but what usually happens is something in between.

Sanchez

[brains]

Ross,

Responding to the first part of your post

Im sure there are plenty of companys willing to take your money for an inner city apartment in Sydney and/or Melbourne.

With your view on the current state of the market im sure you would be up for a few.:D

The way Jenman thinks in his conservative way is safe and correct and will protect and save a lot more people (read ameuter property investors and those sucked in by scams) than those that are talking up the market (encouraging people to keep buying) with an ulterior motive ever will.

No one knows what will happen at the end of this property bull market. All the signs are there for a fair size correction, so what is your opinion based on?

Originally posted by Ross Sneddon
Hi

Like others, I read "Henny Penny Jenman's" website and interpret most of what he says and writes as sensationalism. I think most investors agree that the market is overheated, but that is not a boom nor will it be necessarily be followed by a bust.

It is simply an overheated market and it will flatten, or already has done so, and will wait for the rental market to catch up, supply and demand to sort itself out, a few other economic factors to have their effect and then move ahead again.

Some parts of the market may ease back a little, some just simply flatten and wait for time to pass and everything catch up, but, when Henny Penny flaps his wings and makes a lot of noise, the sky is really not falling, just take it for what it is, a sensationalist trying hard to keep his name and face before the public.

I will also study the facts and figures, listen but not be heavily swayed by the talk of "most people" who don't back the talk with facts and reality.

We all know that the market will rise, plateau and perhaps fall from time to time but in the long term (5 or 10 years or more), there will be a steady and progressive increase in our net portfolio wealth.

Regards

Ross

[Aceyducey]

Originally posted by yee3890
Hi all,

Please have a look for the following link for the prediction for the future popert market of Australia.


http://www.economist.com/surveys/di...tory_id=1794873

:D

Yee,

This link doesn't work...

Can you pub the article if it's premium content.

Cheers,

Aceyducey

[mmerlin]

Originally posted by Aceyducey
Yee,

This link doesn't work...

Can you pub the article if it's premium content.

Cheers,

Aceyducey

Judging by the number at the end of the URL, I'd say Yee was trying to post a link to the Economist article everyone is talking about in another thread

http://www.economist.com/surveys/displayStory.cfm?story_id=1794873

Yee, a tip for future posts: use the preview button, and check links before posting. You can also edit posts afterwards if you see a mistake needing correction.

:) MM

[Ross Sneddon]

Hi Brains

Your thinking has galloped away with you again. I made no reference to inner city, CBD apartments in Melbourne or Sydney, none at all. Nor have I suggested that apartments were a good investment. Indeed I have stated many times in the last few years that I don’t recommend CBD apartments but I acknowledge others may have a different viewpoint. Where you get the idea I have suggested something else is only in your mind.

My comment is that the property market has overheated. In most areas it has reached a plateau and in some areas it may fall a little or rise a little further but essentially it has reached a point where it will now commence to stabilise and rents will catch up over time. Natural inflation will also have an effect.

I don’t see a crash occurring but a steady stabilising of the market back to a state of normalcy, whatever interpretation you wish to use to apply to the term normalcy.

I have reread my comments and don’t intend to suggest any changes to what I have already stated.

Regards

Ross

[rambada]

The link doesn't work and neither does your logic. Dooms sayers are always correct - eventually.
Supply and demand rule, thats as hard as it gets. Make the numbers and dollars work for you and commit to knowledge and due dilligince. It doesn't matter if its shares or property or anything, same rules apply to rising and falling markets. I just think thats its easier to specialise in one area and become an expert in that field. For me that has been and will always be property.
When I first started buying IP's they said I was mad, when I developed they said I was mad, when I spent money and time on education they said I was mad - well I like being mad, beats the hell out of working for a living.

[sheryl_anne]

Dearest Sanchez,

Is that the same infamous Rene Rivkin that I am currently watching on TV trying to worm his way out of insider trading????

regards
Sheryl-anne


:rolleyes:

[Crystal]

For your information...

TREVOR SYKES, 'AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW': It's the smallest criminal conviction I've ever seen in the financial world, in dollar terms.
I mean, I don't think I've ever been to a lunch with Rene that cost less than he's alleged to have taken here, which amounted to the grand sum of $340.00

ANDREW GEOGHEGAN: Rene Rivkin looks to have made a serious error of judgment when he decided to trade Qantas shares for a personal profit of just $346.

MARK WESTFIELD: What, I suppose, disturbs me about this policy of chasing high profile miscreants, is that a huge number of people are walking around after having inside traded and earnt and made many, many times more than Rivkin, and ASIC won't touch them.


I think it's criminal for ASIC to spend huge sums of money to put Rene in jail for making $346!!!!

Regards,
Crystal

[brains]

Ross, I love how you cover all your bases (most - some - plateau -fall - rise) You cant lose there mate:D

Is not inner city apartments a significant part of real estate? You say you didnt mention them but you didnt discount them either.

In my opinion the only way this property boom wont end in a crash is with government intervention to provide a soft landing.
They have already taken steps to implement this, what does that tell you?



Originally posted by Ross Sneddon
Hi Brains

Your thinking has galloped away with you again. I made no reference to inner city, CBD apartments in Melbourne or Sydney, none at all. Nor have I suggested that apartments were a good investment. Indeed I have stated many times in the last few years that I don’t recommend CBD apartments but I acknowledge others may have a different viewpoint. Where you get the idea I have suggested something else is only in your mind.

My comment is that the property market has overheated. In most areas it has reached a plateau and in some areas it may fall a little or rise a little further but essentially it has reached a point where it will now commence to stabilise and rents will catch up over time. Natural inflation will also have an effect.

I don’t see a crash occurring but a steady stabilising of the market back to a state of normalcy, whatever interpretation you wish to use to apply to the term normalcy.

I have reread my comments and don’t intend to suggest any changes to what I have already stated.

Regards

Ross

[Mikhaila]

Originally posted by yee3890
Hi all,

Please have a look for the following link for the prediction for the future popert market of Australia.


http://www.economist.com/surveys/di...tory_id=1794873

:D

Here is The Age article Just to balance the Economist essay.
http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2003/06/02/1054406130670.html

[Bill.L]

Hi all,

I love the doomsayers, they're usually soooo wrong.
To take one area of investing and say it is going to crash, shows a total lack of understanding of the investment class, and history.
If property was all the same then perhaps it could crash, but the different types ranging from CBD apartments, to suburban townhouses, to 3bdr BV on 1/4 acre, to beachfront mansions, to, to ,to.. means that the cycle of boom to bust just happens in different areas at different times.

If Jenman was a little more specific in what was going to crash then perhaps he would have more creditability, especially after the event, if he was correct.

I'll make my prediction, but remember it's worth the paper it's written on, that inner city apartments will crash ala the townhouses and units that were built in Logan around the late 80's early 90's. Median priced freestanding houses that are located close to schools, transport, shopping centres will continue to rise in price.
No prizes for guessing where our money is.

Looking at reasons why some experts think prices will crash has to come back to supply and demand. Inner city apartments have been hyped as where people wish to live, but I just don't see the demand. Whereas suburban housing with a larger percentage of owner occupiers is where the demand is at. Yields in terms of cashflow on investment were never as good in the 80's as they are today and any further lowering of interest rates could see an acceleration of price increases.

The trend for house prices has been up for years, the trend for interest rates has been down for years. Those who would stand in front of the trend and say your going the wrong way, usually get run over.

bye

[Aceyducey]

Mikhaila,

Good article - balanced & looks at the big picture. Well worth reading.

Cheers,

Aceyducey

[Gotham]

Everybody should read the May 31st - June 6th "The Economist". It has a very informative 14 page survey on the property market.

I agree with most, prudent purchasing should yield excellent returns. You have to keep reminding yourself RE is a business and you should carefully examine your investment and returns. If we are all running out buying property purely on the speculation that it will go up in value we are gamblers not investors.

Lastly we should all be happy with the doom and gloom talk as the market needs to calm down a little for everybodies sake.

[brains]

Bill

I suppose its the definition of a "crash". What do you call what happened after the 88-89 boom when ALL property decreased in price in a matter of a year or two.

Didnt stay flat, didnt increase slightly but decreased.

I know the economic situation was different then (i was extended owning a Leichhardt terrace at 18% interest rates) but its all relative.

And for those who stand in front of a trend and usually get run over by it, im sure those people are still standing in Hong Kong, Japan and Canada where the property market is or has crashed, burnt and busted big time and is beginning to happen in Britian anecdotally.

[Bill.L]

Brains,

"ALL property decreased in price in a matter of a year or two". There is an ignorant statement.

I purchased a rural block of land in 1988 for $15,000 and the one next door sold for $25,000 in 1992 then $45,000 in 1998. Both blocks were esentially the same. I think this constitutes part of "ALL property"

In Japan the trend in property prices has been DOWN for years, standing in front of that trend you would have been buying for years and losing money. Speaking of losing money, how are your AMP shares going that you bought, by going against the trend??

I don't say that trends don't change, they do. But predicting when it will change is a losing strategy as trends often go much further than people count on, ie the dotcom bubble.

bye

[brains]

Bill

Love that insecure dig re the AMP shares. They are a spec of my total asetts and as i have said previously i will make money on them, if you dont think i will id love to have a wager with you.


2 blocks of land in WOOP WOOP do not constitute zip, but if memory serves me the bottom of the price correction was in 91 -92 and property has been risng since.


Originally posted by Bill.L
Brains,

"ALL property decreased in price in a matter of a year or two". There is an ignorant statement.

I purchased a rural block of land in 1988 for $15,000 and the one next door sold for $25,000 in 1992 then $45,000 in 1998. Both blocks were esentially the same. I think this constitutes part of "ALL property"

In Japan the trend in property prices has been DOWN for years, standing in front of that trend you would have been buying for years and losing money. Speaking of losing money, how are your AMP shares going that you bought, by going against the trend??

I don't say that trends don't change, they do. But predicting when it will change is a losing strategy as trends often go much further than people count on, ie the dotcom bubble.

bye

[astroboy]

C'mon play nice now boys.
astroboy

[brains]

Im always nice Astro but slightly less so when provoked:D :D

btw: heres the link for the article on the plans the government are implementing for when people are doing it tough due to the upcoming property/interest rate crunch. This might sound tacky but there will be less foreclosures for those hoping to pick up a bargain.


http://smh.com.au/articles/2003/05/31/1054177765823.html

[Bill.L]

OK Brains,

Sorry about the dig on AMP shares, I was just highlighting it to point out the fallacy of predicting against the trend. If something is a great buy because it has gone down in price then when it goes to an even lower price it must be a better buy. Well according to your logic.

Back to property.
If someone else makes a profit that doesn't fit your statement then the obvious thing to do is say it doesn't count. You couldn't entertain the possibility that you were wrong and that different sectors of the market were doing different things at different times???

We sold a house in Melbourne in 1990 that we could have bought back for about the same price at any time up to 1996. So for that period obviously prices hadn't gone up. Had it been purchased by an investor they would have lost because of the negative gearing required. Yields were around a third of the interest payments in 1990 whereas now yields are a much higher percentage of interest payments. But remember in the longer time frame the trend was up, and if you had bought in the mid 80's then the short term correction due to the recession we had to have, was that, only a correction in the TREND of higher prices.

bye

[Michael Croft]

Hi,

To quote the age; "The Economist said that Australian house prices rose 83 per cent on average between 1995 and 2002, with an 18.4 per cent increase last year alone. It said prices were at least 30 per cent too high, and forecast a 20 per cent fall over the next four years." Don't you just love rubbery figures as put out by the sensationalist press (including The Economist)!

A twenty percent fall over four years, hmmm........ did they mean a fall in relative or real terms? If you pay the same price in four to five years time that will equal a 20% fall in value won't it? Will inflation cease to exist or go into reverse?

A purchase price in four to five years time of 20% less than today will be a 40% fall in value, true or false?

Fools and their money are soon parted and the authors know two/fifths of three/eights of stuff/all about property and values; except in a less than well thought out, generalised, semi literate, diratribe designed to sell papers/magazines :rolleyes:

Yes their ignorance pees me off because they profess to be otherwise.

regards, MC

[brains]

This will go some way to answering your question:


" This time, however, with inflation so low, house prices will fall more sharply in money terms than they did in the past. In Britain as a whole, for example, average nominal house prices are likely to drop by 20-25%, and in London by much more. Significant numbers of owners may be left with homes worth less than their mortgages—especially as the proportion of owner-occupiers with mortgages exceeding 80% of the value of their homes is higher now than it was in the previous bust in the early 1990s. "

[multi]

[i]
Im always nice Astro but slightly less so when provoked

You are from Central Coast, aren't you?

Why don't you stop sniffing mass media bulldust for a while, get outside and try to find 3bed house around Gosford for less than $300K (even rundown fibro will do - but no structural faults please).

Just 2 weeks ago you could snap one (if you are quick) for as "low" as $270K, but now - He-he-he.

Property market crash and Iraq's Weapons of Mass Deception are things of the same kind.

[brains]

and your point is??

Originally posted by multi
You are from Central Coast, aren't you?

Why don't you stop sniffing mass media bulldust for a while, get outside and try to find 3bed house around Gosford for less than $300K (even rundown fibro will do - but no structural faults please).

Just 2 weeks ago you could snap one (if you are quick) for as "low" as $270K, but now - He-he-he.

Property market crash and Iraq's Weapons of Mass Deception are things of the same kind.

[astroboy]

Currently banks are getting edgy about property developement and are starting to change the rules. They are more comfortable with developments of 3 or less units or borrowings of less than $1,000,000. For these they do not usually ask for outside valuations or a QS.

And ppl are looking for signs ? Micheal Yardneys post from the development recipe thread. Just reading the signs....
astro

[XBenX]

well banks tightening lending policies on developments must mean and end to the market !!!!

its not like they have been doing this (tightening lending policies in certain areas) for 12+ months

funnily enough the boom has continued.

now Im not saying a correction is not coming... infact I think it is... but lets not get carried away at the indicators

[astroboy]

C'mon I thought I'd get a better bite than that !:D
astroboy

[XBenX]

hehe im guilty of it myself but usually when fishing

you bait.....

:fishing: :P etc

that way you cant withdraw your comments as fishing when they are legitmately proved invalid

[astroboy]

sorry xbenx, you lost me there, comments weren't mine to be proven invalid, M.Y's post and someones (can't remember) on reading the signs... I ain't withdrawing anything:o
just stirring the crappy hype pot,, don't u reckon the thread title reeks of doomsayers ?
astroboy

[XBenX]

again, along with the fishing notes it is probably wise to indicate you are quoting someone in the second half of your post

I understood the first part in bold was a quote....yet the "reading the signs" seemed like your original thought

quite easy to keep your distance from it now :)

i dont understand why you are asking if this thread is full of doomsdayers when your post is one of them....

that would be hardly stirring the pot w/ ambigous and incorrect posts that arent original to start with

/me sits back, closes his eyes and waits for the whizz of the line..

[astroboy]

astro eyes the bait, decides the presentation doesn't appeal and thinks,,, whatever !