All Ords hit 5000...... What now?
- Thread starter RichardC
- Start date
Barracuda said:
It's funny - one month everyone is questioning the Navra fund and how it's underperforming the index but in rough times it has really come good.
oc1 said:
You are a brave man OC1
I calculate that the market is now cheaper than it was in March 2003. That's good yes?
On the downside the US CPI just released, and it was bad. That's bad yes?
I still find it hard to believe that on a property forum, full of property investors, Very experienced ones at that, and no one relates whats happening here to the property market.
I still think it's a glitch. The stockmarket has has it's medicine. The result is now known. The uncertainty is now out there. Uncertainty is worse than the known. The markets have corrected the 10% that was needed to compensate for higher interest rates and inflation. lets get on with it. And remember this, this is no 1987. No stockmarket has ever crashed when average earnings yields were the same as risk free interest yields like now.
See ya's.
On the downside the US CPI just released, and it was bad. That's bad yes?
I still find it hard to believe that on a property forum, full of property investors, Very experienced ones at that, and no one relates whats happening here to the property market.
I still think it's a glitch. The stockmarket has has it's medicine. The result is now known. The uncertainty is now out there. Uncertainty is worse than the known. The markets have corrected the 10% that was needed to compensate for higher interest rates and inflation. lets get on with it. And remember this, this is no 1987. No stockmarket has ever crashed when average earnings yields were the same as risk free interest yields like now.
See ya's.
oc1 said:
Short term low based on yesterdays Price action , I'd agree , on the balance of probabilities , looking at both sides of the story , it's a reasonable assumption.....
See Change
I'm going to top up on some things today. Buying quality companies for the long term. I rant and rave about PE's, and they look cheap enough for me, even if interest rates are going up.
Stop loses, and even worse, auto stop loses have devastated some peoples share holdings in the last few days. Panic selling was rife. Good little lesson, and I would never use a stop loss. Sometimes it pays to just go away and forget things for a while. If you know the value of a company, why be conned by a stop loss?
I think some smart 'Old Geesers' bought yesterday. Old retired investors who don't give a stuff about short term crap. They know that a quality company paying a 5% fully franked dividend is way better than getting cash from interest and having to pay tax on it. Then the growth is just a bonus. Next years div is 5.5%, the next 6%.
See ya's.
Stop loses, and even worse, auto stop loses have devastated some peoples share holdings in the last few days. Panic selling was rife. Good little lesson, and I would never use a stop loss. Sometimes it pays to just go away and forget things for a while. If you know the value of a company, why be conned by a stop loss?
I think some smart 'Old Geesers' bought yesterday. Old retired investors who don't give a stuff about short term crap. They know that a quality company paying a 5% fully franked dividend is way better than getting cash from interest and having to pay tax on it. Then the growth is just a bonus. Next years div is 5.5%, the next 6%.
See ya's.
MJK said:Steady rent and tax deductions I would think. But low yeilding properties could be a bit of a stress.
MJK
Exactly right. Even if the market is down (it's not as in your face as shares are though) the rents are still being paid. As long as you haven't overcomitted.
geoffw said:
My inference was that there is too much uncertainty to call a bottom in this glitch, and probably will be for several months. I am not implying PS's dep/rec-ession has arrived early.
I also think there are many variables that confound comparing todays' markets with previous. Trading is now predominately real time electronic with higher participation of amateur traders, derivative arbitragers and hedge funds profit from 'creating' volatility, auto stop losses are sitting ducks for exploitation, enormous cash reserves with capacity to manipulate markets are more concentrated with larger funds, banks, Saudi, & China, leverage into shares and derivatives is more available then ever before.
Hanging on for the long term
I reckon the all ords index will move back above 5000 when the reporting season starts in late Aug/Sept.
BHP and RIO Tinto would be reporting new record profits, for sure, given that commodity prices did remain high for the respective periods and iron ore pricing did get another 19% increase effective from 1/4/06 to 31/3/07. Their latest production reports due next month will provide some guidance.
Woolworths (not affected much at all in this correction) has recently confirmed earnings guidance of double digit EPS rise.
I know that the markets are worried about 2007 and beyond. This latest correction (not as mild as the two corrections in 2005) will once again, either be a buying opportunity or it will not, but only time will tell.
Still, it has been a fantastic 3 years and if it ends, well, it was good while it lasted.
In any asset boom (property or shares), early entrants win the most. Very late entrants might get burnt.
Never easy. If it was easy, there might not be any workers left. Even now, the number of day traders are estimated by CommSec and E-Trade to be around 10,000 people in Oz. If the stockmarket stalls and moves sideways for a year, these people might not have anything to trade!
I reckon the all ords index will move back above 5000 when the reporting season starts in late Aug/Sept.
BHP and RIO Tinto would be reporting new record profits, for sure, given that commodity prices did remain high for the respective periods and iron ore pricing did get another 19% increase effective from 1/4/06 to 31/3/07. Their latest production reports due next month will provide some guidance.
Woolworths (not affected much at all in this correction) has recently confirmed earnings guidance of double digit EPS rise.
I know that the markets are worried about 2007 and beyond. This latest correction (not as mild as the two corrections in 2005) will once again, either be a buying opportunity or it will not, but only time will tell.
Still, it has been a fantastic 3 years and if it ends, well, it was good while it lasted.
In any asset boom (property or shares), early entrants win the most. Very late entrants might get burnt.
Never easy. If it was easy, there might not be any workers left. Even now, the number of day traders are estimated by CommSec and E-Trade to be around 10,000 people in Oz. If the stockmarket stalls and moves sideways for a year, these people might not have anything to trade!
MJK said:Hey Top C,
What looks good to you? BHP and what else?
What are the best fully franked yeilding shares?
MJK
G'day MJK
I bought BHP for $26.16 today. Finished a bit behind that. Also bought 4 other companies. A mid sized oiler. A small IT company that pays a great dividend with low PE. A mid sized mining service company, and a metal miner. All were top ups. I would rather not go into specifics of companies, as someone complained a while ago about getting bad advice about shares. PM me if you really want to know. This is a property forum after all.
The best shares that pay fully franked dividends are the big blue chips. They are big because they are successful. I have a core portfolio of these companies that I have owned for many years. I just hold these ones for the long term. The dividends pay the interest bill for my gearing.
See ya's.
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Bottom might be over
BHP is now up 4.86% in London. The bottom in this correction might be behind us now (no pun intended), ...... but time will tell.
I am one of those very long term holders who do not bother with short term volatility. I take my punts based on years or decades. An advantage with BHP is that it is highly unlikely to totally collapse the way some other companies have done, but please do your own research as I am merely chatting and no more.
BHP is now up 4.86% in London. The bottom in this correction might be behind us now (no pun intended), ...... but time will tell.
I am one of those very long term holders who do not bother with short term volatility. I take my punts based on years or decades. An advantage with BHP is that it is highly unlikely to totally collapse the way some other companies have done, but please do your own research as I am merely chatting and no more.