Peak Oil, Oops Missed It

alexlee said:
There was a Forbes article arguing the other side:
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That article certainly confirmed non-OPEC production is falling, and fast, which is what I said when referring to Nth Sea and Cantrell.

Their contention is that the Saudis can turn on the taps and solve the problem while Matt Simmons, who has done an awful lot of research thinks they are telling porkies. Either way, this is a short term, price referenced article which does not address PO.

Let the debate continue. :D
 
Assuming we've passed peak oil, would it be the case that growth in oil production slows instead of one minute there's oil, one minute there isn't?

In the sense of, new fields will be found, but smaller ones, so as the big fields slow new but smaller fields come on line. If that's the case, supply GROWTH slows (total production still increases), and oil prices go up. As oil prices go up (with negative economic effect such as inflation), more money goes into alternative energy (more use of natural gas, especially), more efficient use (the technological solution: more efficient solar cells, hybrid engines, etc) and other oil sources that were previously too expensive to extract are used (Canadian oil sands, for example, or Alaska). The US has improved it's petroleum usage efficiency since the 60s and 70s, right? That's why $100 oil isn't hitting as hard as the previous oil crises.

Thinking of a more optimistic scenario, is it possible that oil prices just move up to the point where we have the incentive to find alternative sources and more efficient of energy? And that current oil supplies last long enough for us to have time to develop those solutions and techologies? I'm not saying we'll give up cars, but cars will become more efficient, and governments put in more incentives for energy research (such as increasing the tax on SUVs and using that for research)?

I'm not saying it's going to happen, but isn't that also a credible scenario? The world doesn't HAVE to end in cold and darkness.
Alex
 
alexlee said:
but isn't that also a credible scenario? The world doesn't HAVE to end in cold and darkness.
Alex
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Yep.

No one here is saying oil will run out. They are saying cheap oil is finished [maybe]. It will just getter harder to find, pump, and more expensive.

That's how I see it anyway.

See ya's.
 
My generation is often accused of expecting technology to solve all our problems, but technology IS advancing. I rented a Prius (with a push-button start and everything) in Japan and drove 1200km+ before the gauge dipped anywhere near empty.
Alex
 
I have been aware of peak oil for years now (Acey and I were discussing it here in '03 I think) and it is now hard wired in my brain so it would be unreasonable to expect me to present a "balanced" argument. I will always try to present a fair and factual one though. :) BS only works for a short time.

Part of my thinking is that I now consider the cost of anything new, not in dollars but in the amount of energy and resources required to roll out the technology under consideration. For example: Should I trade my perfectly good V6 for a hybrid tomorrow? My conclusion is "No" I would be kinder to the environment by NOT having this intermediate technology vehicle made for me. New cars use up a lot of energy and plastics to manufacture so I will wait for the next gen cars. But will we have enough energy left to replace the whole fleet of cars while building the windmills, nuclear plants and millions of other things that need to be done?

And there is certainly not enough lead, cadmium, lithium and other exotic metals for wholesale roll out of electric vehicles.

Tinkering by banning incandescent bulbs and hauling recycled products the length and breadth of this country is worse than useless. It makes people think that these things will actually solve the problem. Nothing short of vision and leadership will do that. :(
 
Dazzling said:
You really need to do far more reading on the subject before commenting further.

Passing yourself off as some expert in the production and reserves forecasting business after having read a few wiki sites does the people of this forum no good at all.

What companies release to the media and general public for common knowledge bears little resemblance to the true position.

Your comments thus far are misleading at best.
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Leave it out Dazzling.....

If you are so concerned about people being misled, and the forum being done good, put up your impartial recommended reading list for us misled folk....

Gee, go and edit wiki's articles on the subject if you are concerned people are being misled.
 
Wiki boy back with two interesting links.

Net oil exports from Cantarell

Cuba and peak energy

The second link is worth a read I think, PO from my understanding isn't about lights out for the world but rather the challenges of dislocations caused by cheap as chips energy drying up. Maybe it's an entirely cureable malady but based on my read of human history I'm betting on significant dislocation before the cure becomes apparent, should all be much clearer in the next few years anyhow.

I think what's going on in Mexico is the biggest world story not being well reported at the moment in the press, not sure exactly why other than it's a known thing that we overweight the noisy and immediate (smaller) threats and underweight the longer range (but much more serious) threats due to the way our brains and political systems are wired.

Not trying to present a paper for peer review, just thought those two links were very interesting, least I found them that way.
 
The Cuban story is interesting.

I've been hearing for years how they have beaten PO. I've wondered how it's been possible, but I've never gone into it. The permaculture certainly reduces dependance on fossil fuels, that's while humans are using a hoe to cultivate, but I notice they mention that Oxen and other draught animals are being used. Draught animals are the most inefficient of all, and eat one quarter of the grain produced. The claim is also made that oxen don't compact the soil? Well just think what a hoof will do on an animal that weighs nearly a tonne. An oxen will compact the soil worse than any tire.

A quick google, [I googled Cuba grain imports] turns out they are importing 2 million tonnes a year of wheat, corn and rice, and the imports are increasing. The best page is a PDF, and I don't know how to turn it into a link, other wise I would post the link.

So that is the secret. Much of the grain is probably being fed to animals, and the manure would be supplying the nutrients for the permaculture plots.

Organic farming works very well with most agricultural production, especially small scale vegetable and fruit, but it falls in a heap with grain production because of the huge amount of nutrients needed, and the much lower value of production per tonne. The fact is, the worlds grain production provides the nutrients for a lot of organic farming.

It also turns out that Cuba has very fertile soil, and nearly half the land is arable. Most countries only have a very small percentage of arable land, and so does Australia.

I wonder how they would go without grain imports? I think it would not be pretty.

See ya's.



ps. Here is a link to Cubas food imports,....
http://www.grandcaribecommodities.com/selling_in_Cuba.html

*In 2006 Cuba was the 33rd largest market for U.S. agricultural exports, ranking ahead of countries like Morocco, Brazil, Sweden and Denmark. U.S. agricultural exports to Cuba have grown significantly since trade was authorized in 2000.

*The United States now is Cuba’s largest supplier of agricultural products, supplying approximately 96 percent of Cuba’s rice imports and 70 percent of their poultry meat imports.

*Cuba imports about $1 billion in agricultural products overall. Basic food products and commodities such as rice, wheat, poultry, corn, soybeans, and soybean products have dominated U.S. sales to Cuba. Although minimal seafood is exported to Cuba, U.S. wood product exports to Cuba now exceed $7 million.

*Major competitors include Argentina, Brazil, the EU, New Zealand, Canada and China.
Cuba is the largest single grain market in 6 in the Caribbean taking on average 40% of the region’s grain imports and is forecast to remain dependent on foreign grain supplies for two reasons. First, no wheat is produced, and corn and rice production are shrinking. Second, consumption is rising on both population and income growth.


Hmm. This raises the question, exactly what is Cuba producing besides organic vegetables and fruit? Not much by the look of it. I should have guessed that the Cuban story was too good to be true.

The Cuban peak oil story is a load of greenie organic manure fertilizer propaganda. And it's starting to stink.


Holly cow! I love discussing this subject.
 
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topcropper said:
Organic farming works very well with most agricultural production, especially small scale vegetable and fruit, but it falls in a heap with grain production because of the huge amount of nutrients needed, and the much lower value of production. The fact is, the worlds grain production provides the nutrients for a lot of organic farming.


See ya's.
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I'd agree with this.

Fibrous carbs are no match for grains. They have 10-25% of the Calorie concentration per edible gram.

Even with 1 cup of grain in their diet, Cubans would still need over 50 cups of fruit, vege, and salad to get their daily Calorie requirements, on top of protein and fat.
 
WinstonWolfe said:
Leave it out Dazzling.....
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No problems Mr Wolfe. I can oblige that request.

WinstonWolfe said:
If you are so concerned about people being misled, and the forum being done good, put up your impartial recommended reading list for us misled folk....
Click to expand...

No thanks - I'm not concerned at all. I'm far too busy making money out of the oil industry to be feeding you free literature for you to tear apart. Thing is Winny, most of the "experts" in our industry that write these articles you lap up wouldn't know if they were Authur or Martha, and definitely don't cut it in the industry. They choose to interact with laymen who wouldn't know one end of a well from the other.

WinstonWolfe said:
Gee, go and edit wiki's articles on the subject if you are concerned people are being misled.
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Well gee whizzy Winny....Another complete waste of time.

I get the feeling you guys aren't interested in the nuts and bolts of the industry, down where 99% of the industry professionals interact. There's nothing in it for you down there where we interact. It seems you're more interested in the high level waffle economics that traders in NY feed off and manipulate oil prices for their own benefit.

Trouble is, this is where real life on-the-ground fact, and fairyland inextricably merge, in a heady mixture, trumped by politics and big economic interest.

I have no comment on any of that stuff, as it's all fluff and wind.....both sides of any argument you wish to debate could argue 'til they were both blue in the face and there would be absolutely no definitive resolution. Those type of discussions I find completely pointless.
 
Dazzling said:
I get the feeling you guys aren't interested in the nuts and bolts of the industry, down where 99% of the industry professionals interact. There's nothing in it for you down there where we interact. It seems you're more interested in the high level waffle economics that traders in NY feed off and manipulate oil prices for their own benefit.

.
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Your probably right Dazz.

But as far as traders and waffle and wall St and arabs blowing themselves up and all that other crap is concerned, all that noise just makes the line on the chart go all squiggly.

True supply and demand sets the long term trend of the chart.

That's just how I see things.

See ya's.
 
The problem isn't not being interested in the "nuts and bolts of the industry", its being able to access it.

In the absence of that opportunity, punters do the best they can and comment the best they can. Do you have a suggestion for the 99% of people that dont have the access you do but are still interested in making money and/or making comment?

I don't sit in the boardrooms of RIO, BHP, Leightons or Jubilee Mines etc etc but man have i made some money from them.

And mostly thats from studying "the high level waffle economics" of those companies.

Dazzling said:
I get the feeling you guys aren't interested in the nuts and bolts of the industry, down where 99% of the industry professionals interact. There's nothing in it for you down there where we interact. It seems you're more interested in the high level waffle economics that traders in NY feed off and manipulate oil prices for their own benefit.

Trouble is, this is where real life on-the-ground fact, and fairyland inextricably merge, in a heady mixture, trumped by politics and big economic interest.
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Well said Evand.

Matt Simmons is one who has been calling for data reform in the industry, seems with the state owned companies it's all considered a state secret exactly what's left in the ground.

TC, interesting points, good time to be a farmer in the future I predict :) Maybe we will all need to brush up on our skills so that we can grow our own 'victory gardens'
 
Andrew_A said:
TC, interesting points,
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No worries mate.

I'm glad you mentioned Cuba, as I was under the impression that they had beaten oil dependance. Cuba is the model that is supposed to show how peak oil will not mean everything turns pear shaped. That was the consensus from the greens and the no peak oil mob.

Goodness Gracious, they are importing more food than they produce themselves. About ten minutes of googling blew that myth to where the sun don't shine.

As they say,......"Myth busted".

See ya's.
 
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Dazzling said:
I get the feeling you guys aren't interested in the nuts and bolts of the industry, down where 99% of the industry professionals interact. There's nothing in it for you down there where we interact. It seems you're more interested in the high level waffle economics that traders in NY feed off and manipulate oil prices for their own benefit.
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Daz, I respect what you have done with property, and the bulk of your informative and rational posts.

But there's no point coming into a thread with a slamming attitude (I've been bailed by moderators for less) and denigrating anyone who reads multiple sources of published info by unvested interests, and saying you know better, then not backing it up with something accessible. Am sure you realize that's a hollow rant....

Sure, 99% of the oil industry might interact down in the engine room....even to the point of collusion....but if you can't talk about it either, then it is ridiculous to expect the masses to see beyond this conspiracy of silence and/or misinformation.....and makes your denigrating comments to anyone who write about the subject all the more pointless.
 
Dazza: POO is US$98.45.

What price do you believe will prompt the oil squatters to open the taps and meet demand? (The only explanation for the rise so far is squatters, if your contention of plentiful oil is correct and yes I am aware there are capped "producers" in outback Oz)

If you can't give a figure does that mean we can expect $200 oil but how could a plentiful resource rise that far?

It is time you demonstrated your bona fides.

BTW. If BHP (or any other publicly listed company) knows it owns a proven oil field, potentially capable of producing enough oil to effect it's share price the directors face severe sanctions for not meeting continuous disclosure mandates including jail terms should they "sit" on such data.
 
Sunfish said:
If you can't give a figure does that mean we can expect $200 oil but how could a plentiful resource rise that far?
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data



Nov. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose above $98 a barrel for the first time in New York as the dollar tumbled to a record low against the euro and producers evacuated platforms in the North Sea, evading a storm forecast to bring waves as high as 36 feet.
BP Plc and ConocoPhillips evacuated oilrig workers yesterday, adding to supply concerns before a U.S. Energy Department report today that may show inventories fell for a third week. The dollar slumped, pushing up prices of commodities denominated in the currency, on expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve may cut interest rates.
``One-hundred-dollar oil is the big benchmark and the factors driving crude towards that are in force,'' said Dariusz Kowalczyk, chief investment strategist at CFC Seymour Ltd. in Hong Kong. ``The supply disruption in the North Sea has given further impetus'' to prices.
Crude oil for December delivery gained as much as $1.99, or 2 percent, to $98.58 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest since trading began in 1983. It was at $98.25 at 9:51 a.m. in London. Futures have climbed 67 percent in the past year.
Yesterday, oil rose $2.72, or 2.9 percent, to settle at $96.70 a barrel, a record close.
Brent crude oil for December settlement rose as much as $1.93, or 2.1 percent, to a record $95.19 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. It was last at $94.89.
Conoco, BP
Workers on ConocoPhillips's Ekofisk A, B and C platforms, as well as Eldfisk A and B, were being moved to land or to safer North Sea sites yesterday, said Kurt Mikkelsen, a ConocoPhillips spokesman. BP is moving 150 workers from its Valhall field and expects the platform's 80,000 barrel-a-day oil and gas output to come to a halt later today, spokesman Jan Erik Geirmo said.
``The $100 jackpot is imminent now, despite the fact there aren't really oil fundamentals that can justify such a level,'' said Kamel al-Harami, an independent oil analyst in Kuwait City. ``It is only a matter of time for both consumers and producers to be hurt.''
Prices have passed the previous all-time inflation-adjusted record reached in 1981, when Iran cut exports. The cost of oil used by U.S. refiners averaged $37.48 a barrel in March 1981, the Energy Department said, or $84.73 in today's money.
Oil has risen 60 percent in U.S. dollars this year compared with 44 percent in euros, 53 percent in yen and 50 percent in British pounds.
``The weakness in the dollar is giving investors the chance to buy oil at a cheaper price,'' said Tetsu Emori, a fund manager at Astmax Futures Ltd. in Tokyo. ``Any further declines will only push oil higher.''
Stockpile Fall
Today's Energy Department report will probably show U.S. oil stockpiles fell 1.5 million barrels last week, based on the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 16 analysts. Inventories held 312.7 million barrels on Oct. 26, the Energy Department reported last week.
Gold reached a 27-year high and silver rose to the most in 26 years as rising oil prices and a slumping dollar deepened concern that inflation will accelerate. Wheat, corn, soybeans and palm oil also gained.
Refiners probably used 86.8 percent of their plant capacity, 0.6 percentage points more than a week earlier, and the first increase in four weeks, according to the survey.
``Expectations of an inventory drawdown and the North Sea supply disruption are the major drivers now,'' Astmax's Emori said. ``That's prompting investors to chase up the price.''
Last Updated: November 7, 2007 04:52 EST
 
Not directly related but,

Can I ask probably what is a stupid question?

If oil is going up so high, then why aren't we seeing it at the bowser?

I know the dollars up, and we base our stuff on the that Singapore benchmark........which doesn't seem to have moved much.

Or is this just a US issue given that they are heading into a peak demand period (winter)??

Can't talk much about Peak Oil........If someone mentioned Peak Iron Ore that would probably be another story........:rolleyes:

ciao

Nor
 
You have pretty much answered your own question. Our "gate" prices, even of refined product, are (really) set in Singapore. The big refineries there send their motor spirit, avgas, avtur, diesel etc to the highest priced market so they limit our refiners ability to gouge.

When Caltex floated on the ASX it was @ $4/sh. I finally sold near $2. Why the drop? Singapore refiners were crucifying them and we (Oz drivers) were enjoying cheap petrol. :D We really were!

Today the Yanks can't refine all their own finished product so the Singaporians have a ready market into California. This allows our refiners some extra margin but I won't get drawn into how much extra is too much. There is some justice though if refiners can make up a little from the bad times. I will only say that Caltex does a lot more work for it's few cents/l than our banks do for their outlandish fees and charges.

Oh! You mentioned the appreciating Oz$. Don't underestimate the effect of that. Go to Kitco.com, scroll down the home page to where the gold price is quoted in other currencies and click on the A$POG. There are charts available which show how gold has performed in both currencies and it is reasonable to assume that while the lumps and bumps will be different, relatively the charts (oil/gold) would be similar.

Edit: If, somehow, Howard forced some form of price control of "gate" prices, there is no law to say Caltex can't export into the same West Coast market. Our ULP is crap but our diesel is good stuff.
 
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