I take it you've never studies statistics at all then?
graph theory and statistics and the university of sydney, what about you?
I would say that if prices were $250k today they would be more likely to rise to $500k in a decade than prices at $420k today are to rise to $840k in a decade. That makes sense to me.
This makes absolutely no sense. You are basing your analysis on "feelings". Your feeling is that 250k is "cheap" and therefore its more likely to rise whereas your feeling that 500k is "expensive" and is more likely to fall or not to rise by as much in percentage terms.
Your comment here is completely wrong and irrelevant.
Before replying, do me a favor don't reply with a post that takes your argument in a new direction because that tactic is why this thread never dies. i.e. you post a half baked response, get a post like mine to refute it and then you reply with something completely different yet again.
Your "feelings" about prices and what they should do have no place in statistical analysis. Read up the definition of a trend. - seriously.