Global warming threatens ski resorts
16:25 02 December 03
NewScientist.com news service
Hundreds of ski resorts will go out of business because of global warming, according to research published by the United Nations Environment Program on Tuesday.
In the coming decades, the report says, rising temperatures will steadily push the snowline up to higher altitudes - leaving many resorts below without reliable piste. In some countries such as Austria the snowline will rise by as much as 300 metres over the next 30 to 50 years. And in a worst case scenario not one of Australia's nine ski resorts will be viable by 2070.
The research, carried out by Rolf Bürki and colleagues at the University of Zurich, Switzerland, also shows that the rising snowline will increase the pressure on environmentally sensitive high-altitude resorts as more skiers flock to them.
Klaus Toepfer, UNEP's Executive Director, says the greatest impact of global warming will still come from extreme weather, such as droughts, hurricanes and floods, and will still have the largest effect on those people in the poorest nations. "But this study shows even rich nations are facing potentially massive upheavals with significant economic, social and cultural implications," he says.
Temperature forecasts
To predict the fate of the ski resorts, Bürki's team used temperature forecasts produced by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which represents the view of 2000 of the world's climate scientists.
A ski resort was considered "snow reliable" if, in seven out of 10 winters, it received at least 30 to 50 centimetres of snow on at least 100 days between December and mid-April.
In Switzerland, 85 per cent of its 230 resorts are currently classed as snow reliable. But in one IPCC scenario this could drop to as low as 44 per cent. Germany and Italy, where many resorts are at relatively low altitudes, may also suffer badly. However, American resorts, the majority of which are situated high in the Rockies, could escape the worst impacts.
"Of course, there are a lot of uncertainties and the range of scenarios of the future warming is quite big," says Bürki. The IPCC estimates predict a temperature increase of between 1.4 and 5.8 °C by 2100 unless carbon dioxide emissions are dramatically reduced.
The report was published at the Fifth World Conference on Sport and the Environment in Turin, Italy.
