This thread was getting far too long. Time to start a new one.
Perth Madness- new thread
- Thread starter geoffw
- Start date
Jamie,
First, I do not care the spelling as long as people understand. I am not educated in English language.
Second, I have a Bachlor and a Master Degree in Engineering. I am very good at mathimatics. I used to analyse a largue amount of data for a larget organisation.
Third, I have dared to quit my good pay permanent job 3 years ago and made over $1m over last few years.
The fourth, I do not have the whole data, otherwise, I will tell you what it is.
The last, I do not like your iroxxx (do not know how to spell) way to express your opinion on me. You are not good enough to do so.
First, I do not care the spelling as long as people understand. I am not educated in English language.
Second, I have a Bachlor and a Master Degree in Engineering. I am very good at mathimatics. I used to analyse a largue amount of data for a larget organisation.
Third, I have dared to quit my good pay permanent job 3 years ago and made over $1m over last few years.
The fourth, I do not have the whole data, otherwise, I will tell you what it is.
The last, I do not like your iroxxx (do not know how to spell) way to express your opinion on me. You are not good enough to do so.
Good idea - why not start a special thread for all the people who thrive on abusing each other and the rest of us can stay out of it, you could move the abusive comments in and let them all abuse each other whilst the rest of us read and discuss like the grown up property investors that most of us are!!!!
Sparky
Sparky
Not sure why people above felt the need to reply - I asked serious questions, and was told I wasn't good enough for a reply. Always good to see people jumping on the criticism wagon without all the details.
I have a keen interest in statistics and demography. In many posts in the original Perth thread, such as this one here by Pete, statistics and references are quoted.
"The Analyst" then responded with (emphasis mine):
The Analyst said:
I simply asked:
Jamie said:
My post was straightforward and simple to understand. If the Analyst disagrees with the figures posted, thinks they are flawed or havent been "analysed" properly, I merely asked what figures / publications / research does he use to back up his assertions
The Analyst disagreed with published figures posted by Pete - I simply asked what publications he used to decide the published figures were wrong.
The answer was:
(a) He wasn't basing his figures on any hard data or research - he didn't have any; and
(b) If he did, Im not worth giving them to.
Im very interested in the Perth market, and I think what happens in the West has huge ramifications for the rest of the country. I've seen the huge surge in prices, and think the magnitude of whats happening in the west is something we aren't going to see again in our lifetimes. If someone posts stats that can be verified and used to make informed decisions, then great. If someone disagrees with published statistics and offers another viewpoint, my curious nature makes me ask how they arrived at their perspective.
I like to base my opinions and decisions on fact. Pete posted some figures and backed them up - The Analyst posted a divergent opinion and I simply asked how he arrived at that opinion.
Not quite sure where the vitriol came from.
Jamie.
Last edited:
Jamie,
I get the feeling those posts were in reference to the second post of this thread, and not your comments made earlier.
I can't see anything wrong with your request - after all, we are on this board to share knowledge and discuss opinions... if people dont want to share, why bother reading.
I get the feeling those posts were in reference to the second post of this thread, and not your comments made earlier.
I can't see anything wrong with your request - after all, we are on this board to share knowledge and discuss opinions... if people dont want to share, why bother reading.
Spelling doesn't matter as much as long as people know what you're saying, but I always balk at your term 'medium price'. I never know what you're actually referring to.
If you're going to refute something based on statistics with anecdotal evidence (nothing wrong with that, since statistics can be interpreted in all sorts of ways) at least say that.
Alex
I give my view on this forum based on my hard work and experience over past years. If you do not view my opinion as a view, just do not bother to read and "laugh at" me. Those do care will understand what I say.
I do not like writing a lengthy post to justify my opinion. I give my view based on my understanding of the market, investigation, and my way of thinking from analytical (wrong spelling) point of view ( I used to do these analysis for Auditor General to audit).
I do not like writing a lengthy post to justify my opinion. I give my view based on my understanding of the market, investigation, and my way of thinking from analytical (wrong spelling) point of view ( I used to do these analysis for Auditor General to audit).
To be honest, I do not read all of these lengthy posts. I think they waste people's time. When i read the whole post, I do not really remember what they talk about.
I tend to agree with you Analyst. I find "short and sweet" much easier to follow. I really don't think anyone intended to offend you earlier in the thread. Sometimes its easy to misinterpret the written word and we need reminding every now and then that not everyone here was born using English as a first language. In fact, this is a very multi cultural forum!!! Thats the bewdy of being in Australia 
.
I'm a bit suprised that there haven't been more comments on the current state of the Perth market given the reports over the past couple of days coming through thick and fast on my google alerts.
here's a couple I haven't deleted yet.....
http://www.skynews.com.au/story.asp?id=140142
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,20816581-2,00.html
Certainly not thrilling news. But its not unexpected by most informed investors either. After all, isn't one of the basic principles of sound property investing to ensure that you buy in an area with good CG prospects? I guess now some of us are going to see how well we have judged what is "a good deal".
Interesting times
Tiz
. I'm a bit suprised that there haven't been more comments on the current state of the Perth market given the reports over the past couple of days coming through thick and fast on my google alerts.
here's a couple I haven't deleted yet.....
http://www.skynews.com.au/story.asp?id=140142
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,20816581-2,00.html
Certainly not thrilling news. But its not unexpected by most informed investors either. After all, isn't one of the basic principles of sound property investing to ensure that you buy in an area with good CG prospects? I guess now some of us are going to see how well we have judged what is "a good deal".
Interesting times
Tiz
I would be very interested to know from the investors that hold properties in
Perth what is the difference in the number of listings of properties both inner city units and Residential houses in inner growth suburbs from one year ago up to today is the number higher and the sales volumes starting to slow....good luck willair.....
Perth what is the difference in the number of listings of properties both inner city units and Residential houses in inner growth suburbs from one year ago up to today is the number higher and the sales volumes starting to slow....good luck willair.....
Just finished today's Property REport (the west), it has proved my comments. The median price in Perth is about $430k NOT $490 which was reported ---- 14% difference. Those iresponsible people who produced their report should feel shamed. For the same period, same data source, 14% difference. I believe $430 is reasonable.
Why I was saying those people did not validate their figures. For example, from todays Property Report, Surburb Ashby, over the past 5 years, the median price has gone down by 7.8% annually ----- could this have happened? NO --- Everyone know Perth properties have doubleed over last 5 years. These reporters do not ask check and ask WHY?
From the readig of the analysis by Gavin Hedney, Rob Drbitt and John Garmony, I blieve Perth will have solid growth in next 2-3 years.
Why I was saying those people did not validate their figures. For example, from todays Property Report, Surburb Ashby, over the past 5 years, the median price has gone down by 7.8% annually ----- could this have happened? NO --- Everyone know Perth properties have doubleed over last 5 years. These reporters do not ask check and ask WHY?
From the readig of the analysis by Gavin Hedney, Rob Drbitt and John Garmony, I blieve Perth will have solid growth in next 2-3 years.
Hi The Analyst
The difference in Median Prices between REIWA and APM have always been there and the newspapers have quoted both teams ($490K + looks much better than $430K when reporting a boom )
APM think we're at around $490K, REIWA say $430K , they both have different ways of setting this price and interpreting the figures I guess..
I know the current prices of my properties so the above doesnt faze me too much, I base my yield on the loan as well, so again doesnt faze me..rents are still rising and the market seems to be returning to normality in general (great).
The difference in Median Prices between REIWA and APM have always been there and the newspapers have quoted both teams ($490K + looks much better than $430K when reporting a boom
)APM think we're at around $490K, REIWA say $430K , they both have different ways of setting this price and interpreting the figures I guess..
I know the current prices of my properties so the above doesnt faze me too much, I base my yield on the loan as well, so again doesnt faze me..rents are still rising and the market seems to be returning to normality in general (great).
6.2% growth in the Perth median price for the quarter (ending Sept). The housing demand seems to still be strong. It seems the super-strong economy will support house prices for some time yet. And, I suspect, if there is little capital growth (due to affordability limits) that rents will rise strongly.
I wonder how much of a boost the Perth-Mandurah rail link will make to house prices next year? The line is due to open ~mid year...
I wonder how much of a boost the Perth-Mandurah rail link will make to house prices next year? The line is due to open ~mid year...
Hi all,
If everyone is expecting Perth's growth to "return to normal", then can I suggest we consider what is normal for Perth.
The graph below, that I posted on another thread, shows the cap growth for Perth, Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane after subtracting the official CPI for that year. (the CPI rate for each year is also included)
My suggestion is that "normal" for Perth after a boom is flat to slightly negative after the effect of inflation. Since we are in a period of low inflation, I would be very surprised if the growth rate was much above 3% PA for a few years.
Of course this time it could be different.
bye
If everyone is expecting Perth's growth to "return to normal", then can I suggest we consider what is normal for Perth.
The graph below, that I posted on another thread, shows the cap growth for Perth, Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane after subtracting the official CPI for that year. (the CPI rate for each year is also included)
My suggestion is that "normal" for Perth after a boom is flat to slightly negative after the effect of inflation. Since we are in a period of low inflation, I would be very surprised if the growth rate was much above 3% PA for a few years.
Of course this time it could be different.
bye
Attachments
Hi all
I posted some real time figures for Perth in the old thread.
To show exactly what type of movement has happened in the average suburb.
Here it is
Hi all
Interesting thread.
Here is some exact figures on my local area in Perth which I know well:
Ok we purchased 3 x 1 house 730sq block in Bullcreek (10-15k from city - well established 30yr old suburb - pretty much your average perth suburb) in april 2004 for 210k (pretty much block value) - bulldozed built lovely new PPOR, thru builder 178K as displayed.
OK now we are at june 2006 - identical house / block, 4 houses away sold for 460k - the price for the same house as displayed now 260k
That's 250k increase on block in 2 yrs / 90k on the price to build.
Our old house in Willetton - 2 suburbs away, same type of suburb.
I had it valued in 2004 at 225 - 245k sold july 2005 320k
2 houses up the street in willetton comparable house to ours sold in dec 05 for 380k the new owners put it back on the market 6 months later and sold for 430k.
around the corner in bullcreek - 2 house bulldozed - subdivided into 3 blocks of approx. 500sqm each - auctioned mid 2005 sold for average of 325k each.
Our Bullcreek PPOR now valued at a conservative 700k
I have a girl friend who buys land builds, lives in them and then sells and does it all again she is on to no.6. She made 200k on the last one - the buyers have just had finance approval last week - she's already purchased a new block and is waiting on title.
So I would believe the stats for block increases. I haven't seen a block advertised for under 250k in Perth for quite a while now.
Mind I have not seen the actual sales figures on the new suburb releases, only what I have heard from those that have purchased there, none have purchased for under 250k.
Also you can get sale figures from www.dli.wa.gov.au - for a price (department of land information) used to be DOLA.
Happy pondering Perth.
Celeste
I posted some real time figures for Perth in the old thread.
To show exactly what type of movement has happened in the average suburb.
Here it is
Hi all
Interesting thread.
Here is some exact figures on my local area in Perth which I know well:
Ok we purchased 3 x 1 house 730sq block in Bullcreek (10-15k from city - well established 30yr old suburb - pretty much your average perth suburb) in april 2004 for 210k (pretty much block value) - bulldozed built lovely new PPOR, thru builder 178K as displayed.
OK now we are at june 2006 - identical house / block, 4 houses away sold for 460k - the price for the same house as displayed now 260k
That's 250k increase on block in 2 yrs / 90k on the price to build.
Our old house in Willetton - 2 suburbs away, same type of suburb.
I had it valued in 2004 at 225 - 245k sold july 2005 320k
2 houses up the street in willetton comparable house to ours sold in dec 05 for 380k the new owners put it back on the market 6 months later and sold for 430k.
around the corner in bullcreek - 2 house bulldozed - subdivided into 3 blocks of approx. 500sqm each - auctioned mid 2005 sold for average of 325k each.
Our Bullcreek PPOR now valued at a conservative 700k
I have a girl friend who buys land builds, lives in them and then sells and does it all again she is on to no.6. She made 200k on the last one - the buyers have just had finance approval last week - she's already purchased a new block and is waiting on title.
So I would believe the stats for block increases. I haven't seen a block advertised for under 250k in Perth for quite a while now.
Mind I have not seen the actual sales figures on the new suburb releases, only what I have heard from those that have purchased there, none have purchased for under 250k.
Also you can get sale figures from www.dli.wa.gov.au - for a price (department of land information) used to be DOLA.
Happy pondering Perth.
Celeste
Similar threads
