To everything , turn , turn ,turn. There is a season ......

I heard the classic Byrds song "Turn , Turn , Turn" on the radio today and it made me crystalise some of my thoughts about property investing .

For those of you who arn't familiar with the song the first verse and chorus go like this

To everything turn, turn, turn
There is a season turn, turn, turn
And a time to every purpose
Under heaven

A time to be born, a time to die
A time to plant, a time to reap
A time to kill, a time to heal
A time to laugh, a time to wep

As has been said in another recent post there are lots of different ways to invest in property , but one thing people seem to ignore , is that in different parts of the cycle , maybe there are better ways of optimising your return....

We've just been through the period of maximal growth ( still there if you're in rockhampton ... :) ) but for most areas that phase is over.

So what would be the best way to make money during that period?

To my way of thinking the best thing to do is to gear up as far as you feel comfortable and go along with the ride. At this stage of the market prices are going up overnight , and to spend time organising reno's , developments could have the potential of distracting you from the main way that money will be made at this stage. Obviously if you don't have enough funds to do this to a level you feel happy with , then reno's , flipping , trades maybe a way of generating money to help your cause.

Ok , so once the market slows down , what should be your priority ? We gone through a phase of rapid capital growth, so we're unlikely to have any major systemic capital growth , to my way of thinking at this stage I'd be aiming to maximise my cash flow.

I'd be putting my time toward getting the maximal return from the properties I have. I'd be organising reno's , maybe even selling a couple of properties in areas that I thought were prone to falling donw, or getting rid of the one that had turned out to be a lemon in terms of not attracting good tenants to cut down by monthly repayements. I'd also be revaluing my properties so i have as much equity available as possible.

The main thing I'd be aiming is to get some serious cash flow out of my portfolio.

Why ?

Well sooner or later property investing is not going to be the flavour of the month. Interest rates have gone up , and the people who bought at the peak of the market are getting frustrated at paying out each month for their negatively geared properties that arn't going up in value ( and heaven forbid, may have actually gone done in value ...).

At this stage you go back to where the cycle all begins . The centre of sydney. Yo may pick up some distressed inner city unit sales which, with you cash flow you can afford to hold until the market picks up. With your new found negotiating skills you can look around for the bargains ( if acey , or investor havn't got thier first..:) ) or a unit in the Cross ( if Paul Zag hasn't beaten you to that ..) . You might buy a semi in mosman and then do a reno and get the place revalued and buy another using your new equity and existing cash flow to pay for them.

Once these start picking up then its off in to the main part of the cycle. Watching as areas start moving, buying, revaluing and then buying more. While the market is moving slowly it could be the time to do more renovations, subdivisions and developments.

All these generate more equity so when you get to the stage of rapid growth , you're ready to gear up and go along for the ride again.

I'm not saying this is "the way " , but it's a few thoughts that have occured to me over the last couple of years.

Now, how would you guys approach the property market from a "seasonal " approach ??

See Change
 
Great Post Dr Cliff !

Hi Sea Change.

Great post . You always were on the ball.

As mentioned in my previous post I think the train has arrived at the top of the hill.

Like any boom. The proffessionals feel the ground starting to move at the start. They see the properties that they may have held for 8 years finally moving upwards. Then as the media gets on the band waggon all the Mums & Dads from employment think that a quick $$$ can be made. And yes in the first year or two the mums & dads do make a killing. Overnight proffessional investors.

So everyone else attending a BBQ or party starts doing the same. Only problem is . Most do not want to do boring investigating of areas. Or source out what is really happening on the street. Or note that there are 50+ units of the same style about to come on line in 3 months around the corner.

In relation to one of your former posts Sea Change.

Friends that 2 or 10 years ago were not interested in investing suddenly turn up on your door, phone you or email wanting to get a foothold in the musical cahirs event.

(I have a mate I went to school with. In 1979 i told him to buy a old house at around $20k. Too risky.

In 1987 told him to buy a old house at around $60k. Too risky.

In 2000 told him to buy a old house in good location at $150k. Too risky.

He came around last week & said he was finally sick of working shift work 7 days a week now he is in hi 40's and wanted to buy a old house for $330k.

Told him at this point of time on Boom / Bust Cycle, TOO Risky!
 
SC,

You've echoed my own thoughts. the inner suburbs have been langisung for longer than anywhere else and where the first to take off last time.

I think its closer to surfing. Catch the wave early and you'll have a lovely ride. Catch it too late, and all it'll do is come crashing down on you. Either way, the next step is to paddle out and get ready for the next one.

Jas
 
I understand your message see_change and it is one that all of us should pay particular attention to.

Sure as Autumn follows summer, and then Winter follows Autumn, the property market, too, has seasons.

But just because summer ends and the days become cooler and shorter does not mean that you take your bat and ball, pull up stumps and "go home".

As Winter approaches you pull on your jumper and your boots and grab your Soccer / AFL / Rugby League / Rugby Union ball and head down to the park for some serious "lets get covered in dirt" fun.

The game is different and the rules have changed, but the overall philisophy remains - you have got to be in it to win it.

For some the winter becomes too cold. They do not last.

But for those who are fit and patient, in time, the days begin to lengthen and the air begins to warm.

You can dust off your cricket bat, put on your cap and go out in the sun. Those who are out on the field practising first will do best in any hot season.

Soon the crowds will come and the whole place becomes very congested - and some people will pay too much for their seat. Invariably those who have not prepared for the journey may get sunburnt.

In time the season ends and the days become shorter and the temperature cools.

And then we do it all over again.

MB
 
SC - heartily agree!

I've been having similar thoughts.

Go for yield when city prices are up (and yields down) and go for growth when things are flat.

The results will be higher average yields.

An alternative way of saying this is only buy growth-type properties when their yields >5% and no less than 8-12% when you're leaning towards cashflow.

No one rings a bell when you're at the bottom or top, so there's a risk in mistiming. And if a good deal comes along, then I wouldn't want to be too doctrinaire about buying or not buying (provided you can afford it).

I can visualise a big board game with some other intermediate squares, like 'sell underperforming proeprties' or 'reno' or 'retire debt', etc around the track. Then there are the little things that can be done (but we procrastinate on) eg QS reports or income tax payment variations to improve cashflow.

My own procedure has been to buy an IP for yield and then one with moderate yield but more growth potential. Then I'll swing back to yield, then to growth.

Regards,

Peter
 
Good post See change!.
I started to gear up a bit some time ago, which to my mind is, buy a place where I wanted to be, and get the mortgage down!.
Too many are getting overexcited by the boom and money they made.
To enter the property market now is a little late imo.
Rocky may go up a bit, maybe even a lot but if I was a newbie investor I wouldn`t risk my dollars buying multiple properties there or anywhere else.
One or two good location, tenanted, decent cheapies tops, in a place like Rocky could be a great way of entering the market right now, you may not make a fortune but chances are you`ll make something and move up the ladder a little!. :)
 
Keep moving forward

Yes the market in whatever will always keep moving through cycles that have occured over & over again.

Just gotto be smart enough & not too emotional. Then access the point in time.

Move forward , step backwards. Sit , wait, move forward again.

But always use caution in every step.

Comfort zone of different people will play at what you will do.

But who wants to risk it all for one deal?

Prepare, Study , do it. Sit back, study . Start again.


Use the Cycle


Gee Cee
 
Local cycles

Replying to LPlate's post re PPOR's reminded me about another cyclical event that I've noticed over the last couple of years.

Even within individual suburbs there can be a cyclical nature to which properties start moving first or maybe the furthest.

My observation ( sorry no stats to back this up ) is that during a slump the more expensive properties tend to drop the most, but also in some places the cheaper ones take a hammering . For those who crave long term stability , this would give credence to Jan's proposition about buying median priced properties . They're less volotile.

If you're approaching property with an element of trading in mind, IT IS THE VOLITILITY , that creates the opportunity for greater profits ( and losses if you stuffup ... :rolleyes: ).

Within different areas different sectors of the market will move first. Again as a rule of thumb in most areas I've seen, it tends to be the cheaper places that move first , though in some areas the more expensive houses move first. This actually happened in Rocky as locals started upgrading their PPOR's before the investor hoard decended on the cheapies.

My last observation on this theme is that generally , houses move before units. Again this isn't always the case but occasionally local or outside factors can influence this. In Mt Druitt in the current cycle , units had hardly moved while houses had moved by a significant percentage.

See Change
 
Yes, I agree things are quieter now, at last.

I am currently improving and repairing my current ips. It is amazing that some of these were bought from investors who never spent a cent on repairs.

Improving the ips means a better rental income, not only with higher rents, but with few vacancies.

Research wise I am trying to compile something which may tell me "when" exactly I should I jump back in the investment pond and buy, buy, buy. :)
 
The Plan we have is to refinance and build a new PPOR,
then convert old PPOR to an IP.

But I find it tempting to forget the new PPOR idea
and buy my next IP instead (when I see a bargain calling me.....) ;)

Anyone knows of a way to convince the mrs that this is actually
a good idea and that we don't really need a new house? :D
 
Hi GeoffW and Seechange,

just did a search on Google. Seechange is correct. The Byrds originally sang "For everything Turn Turn, Turn". It was number one in the US in December 1965. The Byrds also had a hit in the UK that year with "Mr Tambourine Man".

Have a look at the top songs for 1965...some absolute classics- Beatles/Rolling Stones/Easybeats/Elvis/Tom Jones

http://svc403.bne025u.server-web.com/number_1_hits/1965.htm

Ajax
 
Ajax said:
Hi GeoffW and Seechange,

just did a search on Google. Seechange is correct. The Byrds originally sang "For everything Turn Turn, Turn". It was number one in the US in December 1965. The Byrds also had a hit in the UK that year with "Mr Tambourine Man".

Have a look at the top songs for 1965...some absolute classics- Beatles/Rolling Stones/Easybeats/Elvis/Tom Jones

http://svc403.bne025u.server-web.com/number_1_hits/1965.htm

Ajax
"Turn turn turn" is early 60. But "A time to be born, a time to die" is slightly older :D
 
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