Climate Change - your views?

Hey,

I have discussed this topic before in the thread: http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11103

However it's a topic I'm very interested in and seems to be turning some new heads in the US at the moment due to a leaked Pentagon report stating that climate change is a bigger risk than terrorism.

As reported in the Sydney Morning Herald today (http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/02/23/1077497512448.html):

A secret report prepared by the Pentagon warns that climate change may lead to global catastrophe costing millions of lives and is a far greater risk than terrorism, a British weekly has said.

The report was ordered by an influential US Pentagon adviser but was covered up by "US defence chiefs" for four months, until it was "obtained" by The Observer.

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Some of the comments in the article:

Britain will have winters similar to those in Siberia as European temperatures drop off radically by 2020.

By 2007, violent storms will make large parts of the Netherlands uninhabitable and lead to a breach in the aqueduct system in California that supplies all water to densely populated southern California.

"Catastrophic" shortages of potable water and energy will lead to widespread war by 2020.

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Food for thought

Cheers,

Aceyducey

I find one comment from the report interesting:

"Catastrophic" shortages of potable water and energy will lead to widespread war by 2020.

Given the water shortages much of Aus is having at the present, that's interesting. Imagine Mad Max - but with Water being the treasured item !

On an aside, I recall reading about an agreement made some years ago (probably 1980's or thereabout...) where the signatories (including the US) agreed amongst other things to not interfere with the weather - perhaps indicating that they have previously......

Mind you dunno about global warming. This summer isn't exactly cooking.....occasional blasts, then cools off.


Cheerio

Simon.

Interesting that it seems to be creating colder climate now. I thought the world was going to heat up ...

Some interesting information that I have come across in relation to climate change (and I have no desire to start a great argument on it)

Satalite measurments of atmospheric temperatures have been recorded for over 30 years and there has been no significant change in these atmospheric temperatures (I know I should include a source, and if I had the time to find it again I would).

Climate models are extremely difficult to create, and small changes in some of the assumptions can lead to large variations in the results. The science of it is very imprecise.

The models used in the meetings (like Tokyo etc) change the timeframes for the disasters every time there is a meeting (There is a website that the UN has that tracks these meetings, outcomes etc ..http://unfccc.int/ ) which has a lot of interesting information.

Despite dire predictions, Pacific island nations still exist and ocean levels are the same. Most evidence for climate change seems to be circumstancial, in that whenever an unexpected event occurs climate change is blamed. Remember we are coming out of an El Nino (Which have occured periodically for the last 10000 years), and this itself results in unsettled weather, without the help of human development.

We are living in an era of Ice Ages, which have occured roughly every 10000 years, and the last one was 10000 years ago, so we are probably due for one - which might count for the claims of Siberian winters in Britain.

Some positives out of the climate change movement have been a reduction in pollution, and a greater concern for the effect of our development on the environment.

The main problem I have with the whole argument is that it is presented that everything the first world does is bad, destroys the world for everyone etc etc.

Remember that one of the greatest movements in the 20th century for the environment was the Nazi Germany (not implying that environmentalists are Nazis, but extremists).

There was some time ago a series on the ABC that screened the problems with the Green movement, including blocking the World bank from dam construction in third world countries in dire need of fresh water supply. I wish I had video taped it, it was eye opening.

I wonder how California would go if the aqueduct system fails.

Apparently the next Ice Age will begin on May 20, 2004

The Day After Tomorrow

Kind of corny, but may provide an evenings entertainment...

Woo hoo, Ski fields on Mt Coot-tha

Simon,

Keep in mind that the term 'global warming' while often used by the media, is not the scientific term.

Cause the effects of the changes is to make some places get hotter, some places get colder & many places to have more unstable weather.

And as the trend is towards instability it's harder to see the trend

Cheers,

Aceyducey

PS2 said:

Woo hoo, Ski fields on Mt Coot-tha

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Actually, many of the world's ski fields - including Australia's - may vanish See the previous thread (as referenced in my original post) for more info....

That's why I'm going skiing this year - want to learn how to do it before it's too late

Cheers,

Aceyducey

Aceyducey said:

Simon,

Keep in mind that the term 'global warming' while often used by the media, is not the scientific term.

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It was more a joke about Melbourne's summer (or lack thereof).

I've lived here all my life (and love the place), but winter really isn't these days, and neither is Summer.......Autumn and Spring still seem to work though

Cheerio!

Love your quote Acey. As a practical, tradesman type, it suits me well.
Another is "I used to be indecisive, now I'm not so sure!" And this fits when global warming, coming ice age and the greater depression are discussed. I know great changes are coming, I just don't know when or in what form.

The truth is, the second half of the last centuary was not typical of life on Earth. It was too benign and we did exactly what rats and lemmings would do: Gorge ourselves and overpopulate until there is nothing left. We will do as the rats do and turn on each other, not as the lemmings do and run over the cliff.

I would never say this at a BBQ but you did ask........ Thommo

More in keeping with your original Q, I read last year that the Gulf Stream, which begins in the Gulf of Mex and travels clockwise around the Nth Atlantic, is in danger of going sub-surface. This could happen quicker than you would assume qlobal changes occur.

Should this happen UK and West Europe (kept mild and humid by it) would become as cold as Siberia and Canada. They believe it has happened before during Homo Sapien's walk on Earth with devestating affect.

http://www.doc.mmu.ac.uk/aric/eae/Climate/Older/Gulf_Stream.html

Aiming high

Talking about skiing fields being affected.

One place that would benefit from this would be many of the USA fields which are often at higher altitudes.

So instead of buying an apartment in Perisher , maybe colorado would be a better idea . Set up a conference room , and you can have the AGM 's of all of your family trusts over there ....

See Change

Here is somthing else we can all worry about

http://www.somagardens.com/billions/

Interesting read
not sure if i believe all of this apparently many people around the world do and its gaining momentom and distrust of how world economics really work.

very interesting

Hi all,

As per my views previously, I thought I would add the link below from Ian Plimer.

http://www.ipa.org.au/pubs/special/climate/plimerpaper.html

Hopefully that will give "the believers" a bit of food for thought.

I especially like the bit about daylength change in 76-77.

bye

I feel sooooooo insignificant!

Bill.L said:

Hopefully that will give "the believers" a bit of food for thought.

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Bill,

Have known all of this for a number of years. In fact I presented several papers on the topic in the early 1990s, including one that ended up in a report tabled at the UN (via the AIESEC Global Seminar Series Conference in Japan on Sustainable Development in 1991).

If your point is that climate change is inevitable - I agree with you.
If your point is that it's largely beyond human control I agree with you.

If it's that people are focused on the climate remaining the same & are not thinking about the climate being highly variable, I also agree with you.

Which is why I think it's important that people think about this topic. Climatic change will influence our lives, is already influencing our lives, it shouldn't be feared or ignored - as much as possible we need to look at what the potential changes will encompass and shape our decisions accordingly

Cheers,

Aceyducey

Try this one on for size!

Hi All

Us Humans seem to believe we can control nature, probably just like the Dinosaurs did. (Assume Dino voice....Oh look Bert, a giant flaming ball in the sky, wonder what that means? BANG! Bert, talk to me! Bert!!.... BERT!!!!)

But like the Dinosaurs who (some say) evolved into birds so shall we, if IT (generic for all disasters from now on in this post) comes.

But overall one it boils down to one Question that answers it all... Is there a God?

For if there is a God (non secular entity, Friendly Aliens, Jesus, Mohamed, big giant head, whatever, from now on in this post) then:

A. Humans either evolved though God’s grace and support to be the master species in God’s image. Bit like a science project.

B. Humans have evolved by being hidden behind God’s Fridge (like some mould) and God has not found us or cannot be bothered to clean us up, yet.

So if it B we end up with OUTCOME 1 We are stuffed.

But if it is Point A, we have OUTCOME 2 God wants us and provided we stay wanted, we are OK.

BUT…..

If there is NO God then we have all been very lucky so far and should kick back and enjoy our moment in the sun until:

A. Another mass extinction in which Homo Computus evolves and makes us Sapiens into energy sources (ala Matrix)

B. Aliens fly by and turn us in alien dog food or their pets or give us “shiny beads” so we sell them Earth to turn it into a giant Alien Resort (think SE Qld… in fact some would say this has already happened)

C. Being Animals means we blow each other up Nuclear , fight over Water and it all becomes Mad Max however this one been around for a while and the mutual destruction bit seems to stop it.

D. We ALL evolve to a point that we ALL turn into Homo Computus and we can travel space and maybe time (Earth becomes the Mother Planet) before a comet gives us the big King Hit. Effectively we become GOD like!

So if it is Box A, B or C refer to OUTCOME 1 above. STUFFED

If it is D bring on OUTCOME 2. NOT STUFFED

Note that both scenarios for Outcome 2 either involves having a GOD, being GOD like or being so lucky someone got to pulling the strings? Hello are you there God?

So in summary….. Don’t Worry, Be Happy!!

We either have an God and goind to become Godlike and it’s AOK or......

we just animals who learnt to type and like the Household Dog should live life to the fullest, eat, drink, procreate, chase that ball (property) and never see the Truck coming the other way.

Regards, Peter 147

PS2 said:

Remember we are coming out of an El Nino (Which have occured periodically for the last 10000 years), and this itself results in unsettled weather, without the help of human development.

We are living in an era of Ice Ages, which have occured roughly every 10000 years, and the last one was 10000 years ago, so we are probably due for one - which might count for the claims of Siberian winters in Britain.

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I like the idea of weather cycles, we are coming out of an ice age therefore the temperature should be rising slowly, it will peek and then slowly decline until the next ice age is apon us! The 10000 year cycle might be out by a bit or more.

Still it doesn't hurt to do your bit recylce and try to reduce pollution, we are baby sitting this world for our childrens children.

cheers
quoll

Peter 147
I like your thinking, I'll raise my glass to you tonight while eating, drinking and being merry.

Cheers
quoll

Off topic a bit, but in response to the "billions" link....

In 1867 the Fathers of Confederation gave the federal government (under Section 91 of the British North America Act) the right to create Canada's money supply. However, our federal government has given this right to the private chartered banks. Instead of getting our money supply for the cost of printing, our federal government now borrows the money from the chartered banks and pays over $40 billion per year interest. Payment of this interest took 33% of all the taxes collected in the last fiscal year. This means all businesses, farmers and individuals also have to borrow our money supply. Because money to pay this interest is never issued, we have to borrow the money to pay the interest. Thus borrowing drives all of us, including our governments, deeper and deeper into debt.

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Anyone who's done economics knows this simplistic arguement doesn't stack up. Simply printing more money devalues the currency.

Actually, most of the arguments fall into the "average joe" category. Things that the average joe will accept as truth without delving deeper, and things that affect Joe and explain why he cant have everything......

The only scarey thing is, the masses may actually buy into it.....

The only scarey thing is, the masses may actually buy into it.....

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Well, from this and back to the original topic, I think it is somewhat hazardous to openly accept 'leaked' information, particularly from Defence sources.

I know about the so called quality of certain information released from so called reputable sources, that have appeared in the media lately. It is difficult to interpret info, unless the whole context of that info is known. This can be related to 'intelligence' advice and actions of late, as has been portrayed in the media and parliament.

As for global warming and the effects, as sourced from leaked Pentagon documents, I have a few questions of The Observer (that could never be disclosed - even if they did have the answers). I don't 'trust' these type of newspaper articles due to not knowing the context - this is more important than a lot of people would probably realise.

But, this is a very valid thought provoking topic and it is very real. As for the context of the conclusions presented by The Observer article - I can only frown and ponder many questions...

I do believe my children will live in different climatic conditions to those of which we have become acustomed.