XBenX said:HEY! Youngster - turn down the volume on your X Box - get off that skateboard and get a job...Peter Spann said:We, the younger generations (if you allow me to include myself in that)
You can make young at heart Peter =)
But you are going to have to miss out on fitting into the younger generation
Oh, you're in IT? And being paid $10,000 a minute as a code monkey.
Well, get a haircut anyway.
Mumble, mumble. Youth of today - no respect!
Peter Spann's new book title
- Thread starter qaz
- Start date
Nah
Anyway I am a card holding member of the baby Ferrari fan club.
Nah, I won't drive a car I can't pronounce!Baloo said:
Anyway I am a card holding member of the baby Ferrari fan club.
Hi all,
Good one Peter, try to shoot the messenger by ignoring the message. You think my numbers(actually your numbers, I just filled in the gaps) are wrong because of history.
Please show which ones in my example are wrong.
You have no idea of my beliefs. My example based on your numbers leads to a situation of incredibly high asset values relative to extremely low interest rates and yields, can you not see the parallels with Japan in the bubble period? No we are NOT there in 2004 but we could get there in the future. It is a possibility, and the numbers you flippantly used are getting nearer to that situation.
My beliefs include that we are about to have a situation where the percentage of the population in retirement grows faster than at ANY time in the last 130 years, therefore we should expect the unexpected to happen.
Can you identify ONE 15 -20 year period in the last 130 years that was the same as the 15-20 year period preceeding it??
I am not "married" to any one belief. I think in terms of probabilities of what will happen. The following are the 3 most likely in my eyes.
1/ A period of much higher inflation than anyone expects, which naturally leads to higher interest rates. It also destroys the value of savings(a la superannuation accumulations), leading to the retired being much worse off than they expected a la the 1970's.(There is a wonderful example in Jan Somers book Story by Story)
2/ A continuation of the falling interest rates and rising asset prices that leads to the Japanese bubble experience, and the following crash.
3/ The "popular" opinion of the future where inflation stays at current low levels, interest rates and yields slowly rise while cap growth stays low for the next few years, followed by another boom in x years time as yields again come down to current levels.
Given history, number 3 is least likely to happen. Also the numbers you used are much more part of 2/ than 3/. Do you disagree?? How??
So why do I hold property?? If 2/ happens then prices are likely to go much higher before any collapse. If 1/ happens, provided you are conservatively geared and can hold on during the rapid rise in interest rates, then being a borrower allows you to pay off debt with deflated dollars.
Also as you like to be influenced Graham and Dodd, how does their "value investing with a margin of safety" style fit into current investment into "growth" properties with low yields??
bye
Good one Peter, try to shoot the messenger by ignoring the message. You think my numbers(actually your numbers, I just filled in the gaps) are wrong because of history.
Please show which ones in my example are wrong.
You have no idea of my beliefs. My example based on your numbers leads to a situation of incredibly high asset values relative to extremely low interest rates and yields, can you not see the parallels with Japan in the bubble period? No we are NOT there in 2004 but we could get there in the future. It is a possibility, and the numbers you flippantly used are getting nearer to that situation.
My beliefs include that we are about to have a situation where the percentage of the population in retirement grows faster than at ANY time in the last 130 years, therefore we should expect the unexpected to happen.
Can you identify ONE 15 -20 year period in the last 130 years that was the same as the 15-20 year period preceeding it??
I am not "married" to any one belief. I think in terms of probabilities of what will happen. The following are the 3 most likely in my eyes.
1/ A period of much higher inflation than anyone expects, which naturally leads to higher interest rates. It also destroys the value of savings(a la superannuation accumulations), leading to the retired being much worse off than they expected a la the 1970's.(There is a wonderful example in Jan Somers book Story by Story)
2/ A continuation of the falling interest rates and rising asset prices that leads to the Japanese bubble experience, and the following crash.
3/ The "popular" opinion of the future where inflation stays at current low levels, interest rates and yields slowly rise while cap growth stays low for the next few years, followed by another boom in x years time as yields again come down to current levels.
Given history, number 3 is least likely to happen. Also the numbers you used are much more part of 2/ than 3/. Do you disagree?? How??
So why do I hold property?? If 2/ happens then prices are likely to go much higher before any collapse. If 1/ happens, provided you are conservatively geared and can hold on during the rapid rise in interest rates, then being a borrower allows you to pay off debt with deflated dollars.
Also as you like to be influenced Graham and Dodd, how does their "value investing with a margin of safety" style fit into current investment into "growth" properties with low yields??
bye
Misunderstanding
Bill, I am sorry you misunderstood where I was heading. In my view I wasn't shooting you as a messenger - I was asking you questions to give you an opportunity to explain rather than just criticise.
And if anything encouraging you to continue. I you want to come out punching that’s OK, but my model of the world requires me to contribute not just criticise.
(By the way:
1. I haven't ignored your message - I just disagree with it but can't see the point of going around in circles on argument, counter argument with no winners as you drew me into last time you criticised my view.
2. And I actually want to know how you would deal with these scenarios. We've all heard them before but I'd like to know what alternative strategy you would offer.
3. With due respect, I don't think you understand what my strategy is (as some of your arguments seem to support my overall strategy not counter it.)
You seem happy to poke holes in my argument but when pushed offer no alternative of your own.
You ask for examples, but I believe that examples do not build an argument they just illustrate one (and by the way every time I have used an example you have shot it down in flames).
Nobody has to agree with my point of view and I respect your alternative opinion but I not just don’t want to open myself up to casual pot shots.
So, if you don’t agree with me that’s OK, but may I ask for you to…
State an opinion.
Make a stand.
Put something on the line.
Suggest a strategy.
Then we all learn.
Bill, I am sorry you misunderstood where I was heading. In my view I wasn't shooting you as a messenger - I was asking you questions to give you an opportunity to explain rather than just criticise.
And if anything encouraging you to continue. I you want to come out punching that’s OK, but my model of the world requires me to contribute not just criticise.
(By the way:
1. I haven't ignored your message - I just disagree with it but can't see the point of going around in circles on argument, counter argument with no winners as you drew me into last time you criticised my view.
2. And I actually want to know how you would deal with these scenarios. We've all heard them before but I'd like to know what alternative strategy you would offer.
3. With due respect, I don't think you understand what my strategy is (as some of your arguments seem to support my overall strategy not counter it.)
You seem happy to poke holes in my argument but when pushed offer no alternative of your own.
You ask for examples, but I believe that examples do not build an argument they just illustrate one (and by the way every time I have used an example you have shot it down in flames).
Nobody has to agree with my point of view and I respect your alternative opinion but I not just don’t want to open myself up to casual pot shots.
So, if you don’t agree with me that’s OK, but may I ask for you to…
State an opinion.
Make a stand.
Put something on the line.
Suggest a strategy.
Then we all learn.
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Bill, Your post somewhat disturbs me. I get the feeling that you are implying that when property investing takes a dive, ALL properties take a dive. I cannot envision it myself. When some share trading values drop, do they ALL drop across the board?
From what I have read from more seasoned investors activities, if SOME share markets drop, those investors have already made their money and gotten out. If SOME property markets drop, the investors have already made their money and gotten out, or are prepared to sit it out.
Ultimately, the final decision of risk assessment is up to the investor. No one has a chrystal ball, however some seem to have an uncanny knack of choosing the best decision.
From what I have read from more seasoned investors activities, if SOME share markets drop, those investors have already made their money and gotten out. If SOME property markets drop, the investors have already made their money and gotten out, or are prepared to sit it out.
Ultimately, the final decision of risk assessment is up to the investor. No one has a chrystal ball, however some seem to have an uncanny knack of choosing the best decision.
Hi Bill, I have some difficulties in following your reasoning / predictions, but let me tell you something from my own experience.
I once lived in Never-Never land, ( I call it so because I will never go back).
In a period of 30 years we went trough some 10 or 15 "revolutions", two civil wars, about 30 massive devaluation of the currency, inflation averaging 6 to 8 % A MONTH with one year reaching 400%.
Who can make money in such environment right? How can one ever predict what to do? Well that was what 99.99 % of the population did. Complain and protest was a popular sport. Yet some of us made money. How?
First by expecting a good outcome, a good deal a good idea to come to us and putting it in action.
In a high inflation environment I made money by manufacturing a product that cost me 10 to produce and that sold at 9.
I paid my suppliers at 90 days and collected my sales payment at 30 days. The money earned I invested in car loans at an astronomical interest.
I did this for some 4 years. After a year of 400% inflation the currency was pinned to the US dollar and inflation ceased to exist for 9 years in a row.
Why am I telling you this? The future is unpredictable, we can have educated guesses and we may even believe what we say. The fact remains that no one knows what will happen. The only thing we take with us in the future that is predictable is ourselves.
I rather have with me a tool (brain) that is loaded with the capacity of manifesting good outcomes in poor situations and the ability to see opportunity where others see disaster and adapt to what will certainly be a changing environment than a dogmatic brain that wants to predict the worst in order to have better chances to be right.
Entrepreneurs to be successful must be by definition inventors, lateral thinkers, astute, unique, bold, risk takers, but most of all see themselves as artist, producing something that works for them. If I had a quarter of the economic knowledge you seem to have, I would be busy devising a unique strategy to make even more money and have even more fun doing it.
I once lived in Never-Never land, ( I call it so because I will never go back).
In a period of 30 years we went trough some 10 or 15 "revolutions", two civil wars, about 30 massive devaluation of the currency, inflation averaging 6 to 8 % A MONTH with one year reaching 400%.
Who can make money in such environment right? How can one ever predict what to do? Well that was what 99.99 % of the population did. Complain and protest was a popular sport. Yet some of us made money. How?
First by expecting a good outcome, a good deal a good idea to come to us and putting it in action.
In a high inflation environment I made money by manufacturing a product that cost me 10 to produce and that sold at 9.
I paid my suppliers at 90 days and collected my sales payment at 30 days. The money earned I invested in car loans at an astronomical interest.
I did this for some 4 years. After a year of 400% inflation the currency was pinned to the US dollar and inflation ceased to exist for 9 years in a row.
Why am I telling you this? The future is unpredictable, we can have educated guesses and we may even believe what we say. The fact remains that no one knows what will happen. The only thing we take with us in the future that is predictable is ourselves.
I rather have with me a tool (brain) that is loaded with the capacity of manifesting good outcomes in poor situations and the ability to see opportunity where others see disaster and adapt to what will certainly be a changing environment than a dogmatic brain that wants to predict the worst in order to have better chances to be right.
Entrepreneurs to be successful must be by definition inventors, lateral thinkers, astute, unique, bold, risk takers, but most of all see themselves as artist, producing something that works for them. If I had a quarter of the economic knowledge you seem to have, I would be busy devising a unique strategy to make even more money and have even more fun doing it.
Bill,Bill.L said:
You're long on opinion but short on facts.
I suggest you - and everyone reading the thread - review my post on what happened during the Japanese bubble (http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=17563&highlight=Japan)
We don't have anywhere near the same situation in Australia, nor are we at the start of a run-up like that.
Supply some SOLID FACTS so the rest of us can understand where you're coming from - don't just talk about how the situation 'could' become.
And I agree with Peter's point about don't come to the table with problems unless you're prepared to also offer some solutions (a rule I learnt ery early on in business).
Cheers,
Aceyducey
Hi, anyone:
I always give my best respect to Bill L who have abilities to challenge the big name. I would like to give my opinions.
Someone asks Bill to give his strategy. Well, I search Bill's posts and give this one in case the guru is too busy:
http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?p=109917#post109917
Well, I am not as good as the average Joe who can make 10 Millions within 10 years. Can I ask those Gurus to give some examples of such successful stories - average joe to make 10 millions in 10 years.
This is a public forum. Bill, please, we need your valid inputs to turn all other newbies such as myself into true millionaires.
Cheers
TGP
I always give my best respect to Bill L who have abilities to challenge the big name. I would like to give my opinions.
Well, I don't feel Bill's posts have any indication of that.Brenda Irwin said:
You feel difficulties to follow Bill, but I feel very easy to follow him. You have your successful experiences. I can give you my experiences of following him in this forum only, not by attending Bill's seminar, that I make more than 1 millions dollars in last few years in IPs.marc1 said:
What fact you need Ace? Can you give some? It may need 10 GB storage of computer memory to hold all those facts.Aceyducey said:
Someone asks Bill to give his strategy. Well, I search Bill's posts and give this one in case the guru is too busy:
http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?p=109917#post109917
Well, I am not as good as the average Joe who can make 10 Millions within 10 years. Can I ask those Gurus to give some examples of such successful stories - average joe to make 10 millions in 10 years.
This is a public forum. Bill, please, we need your valid inputs to turn all other newbies such as myself into true millionaires.
Cheers
TGP
Bill.L,
*sigh* I see a typical -ve post from you. You want to challenge someone who has dared to dream and been very successful at doing just that. Yet where are you with your negative thoughts along that same path Bill.L ?
TGP if you feel Bill.L is a guru and model your success on his formula then, I am afraid my friend, you are doomed to failure. Sorry...
ab
*sigh* I see a typical -ve post from you. You want to challenge someone who has dared to dream and been very successful at doing just that. Yet where are you with your negative thoughts along that same path Bill.L ?
TGP if you feel Bill.L is a guru and model your success on his formula then, I am afraid my friend, you are doomed to failure. Sorry...
ab
Great Post
In the end my view is that I am smart enough or willing enough to learn to adapt to any situation that the economy throws at me, BUT if I do nothing now I will miss the opportunites that are presented to me. And if I fail to act becuase of fear, especially if that fear turns out not to be correct then I will for ever miss the opportunites that could have been there if I acted.
Great communication.marc1 said:
In the end my view is that I am smart enough or willing enough to learn to adapt to any situation that the economy throws at me, BUT if I do nothing now I will miss the opportunites that are presented to me. And if I fail to act becuase of fear, especially if that fear turns out not to be correct then I will for ever miss the opportunites that could have been there if I acted.
All good things must end
Hello again everybody
The moderators have asked for this thread to come to a natural conclusion, and I believe their wisdom is correct.
All good things must come to an end. I just wanted to thank everybody for their input, praise and support, constructive criticism, debate and dialogue. It is these factors that make this forum the valuable resource it is.
Congratulations to everybody involved!
Hello again everybody
The moderators have asked for this thread to come to a natural conclusion, and I believe their wisdom is correct.
All good things must come to an end.
I just wanted to thank everybody for their input, praise and support, constructive criticism, debate and dialogue. It is these factors that make this forum the valuable resource it is.Congratulations to everybody involved!
