Opinions in Investment

TryHard · 15th Mar, 2005

Thanks

Off topic or not (and I think not), fantastic post Bill

As a relative newbie in the sharemarket, I would love to see some sample trades using your suggested system versus NavTrade, it might help us all understand the advantages and disadvantages of going it alone versus placing the job in someone else's hands.

Cheers
TryHard

Sultan of Swing · 15th Mar, 2005

Bill.L said:
Actually I think I've gone "offtopic" in my own thread.

Hi Bill

Quite the opposite, I think you're right on topic.

IMHO, as far as posting goes, you've come back with a winner. This is the sort of post I love because of the 'meat' you've put into it.

I'm not saying I agree or disagree, but what you've done is shared YOUR methods and given us and insight into what YOU do.

Thanks again Bill

Cheers

Sunfish · 15th Mar, 2005

Quote:
If the topic is shares, then my approach is to buy what is rising in price, and to have a stoploss point where I get out if I am wrong.

What's got into you Les?

What Bill said is a simple statement on share trading. If you want more detail go a shares forum or ask here, (politely) and one the many knowledgeable traders will help.

I think it's time you (a general you) stopped slagging off on BillL because he dares to question the "keep buying, never sell" philosophy of most here.

Brains/Likewow and I also used to try bringing some caution into the debate but it is a thankless task and we gave it up. Newbe forum members will be the losers because there will be nobody telling them of risks and alternatives.

Back to share trading, obviously you buy that which you think is going up. The Navra approach is to stay in blue chips, sell (he doesn't say all or part) when they have done a run and buy back later after they drop. Saying this is just like saying driving's easy, "Stay on the black stuff and don't hit anything".

I don't work that way but I've only doubled my portfolio since Jul 1 so what do I know. I just buy what's going up. Don't use rigid stoplosses tho.

Regards Thommo

In case anyone's wondering this is in reply to Les's post on page 1. I missed the fact that was a second page.

T

TryHard · 15th Mar, 2005

Dare to Compare

Thommo

With my limited number of posts I reckon I'd rank as a "newbie forum member" you described and I feel I am missing out only because the risks and alternatives in Bill's suggested approach were not clear, nor were the results I could expect (versus the NavTrade system being attacked, which I know, so far for me, works, and needs no management time from me).

I'm a novice in equities and my direct investment share portfolio has more than doubled in the last 12 months too, so I don't know your result necessarily proves any more than "I bought a house 3 years ago and made money therefore I must be a property guru". Yes my results were better than NavTrade, but the risks, IMHO, meant I should expect far better results.

From my own selfish point of view I would really like more informed investors to show how they have used share trading to complement their growth.

Hope to learn more

Cheers
TryHard

PS BTW actually Navra does says whether he sells in whole or in part, you simply need to go to one of his seminars to have the NavTrade system explained

topcropper · 15th Mar, 2005

Keep up the good work Bill.

We may have had our differences, but it's good that you have a differing opinion to me. That's one reason why I'm here. If I was on a shares forum at the moment, everyone would just agree, because everyone is bullish now. I enjoy talking shares on a property forum.

And if I ever say that I'm selling my PPOR, to put the whole lot, plus borrowed money into a single share fund, that buys shares when they drop, I would hope that you would tell me to have a long hard look at my self.

While I use mainly fundamentals to pick a share, once in, I like to only average up. Buying on dips is risky. I agree with you there.

See ya.

Bill.L · 15th Mar, 2005

Hi all,

Tryhard,
The last 2 years is hardly typical market action, that could be expected to continue indefinately.
What do you see as the down side risks in the NavTrade system??
With a long slow decline in stock prices, I would be out of the market ( The stocks declining anyway).
Just looking at a couple of banks, if the price declined 20% from where you bought, would you still hold it?? What about 30%, how about 50%?? Would you average in as the price declines because they are safe bluechip??

bye

willair · 15th Mar, 2005

Bill.L said:
Hi all,

Just looking at a couple of banks, if the price declined 20% from where you bought, would you still hold it?? What about 30%, how about 50%?? Would you average in as the price declines because they are safe bluech,

Bill L.
just a simple question?,i watch the banks every day and have several
holdings in the various big 5 banks in this country,i think they are well set up to take a 20% down track,but anything larger than that would worry
everything and everybody in the investment world,imho i still think
CBA will break the $40. mark within 5 weeks,do you know something
about banks?..
good luck
willair..

TryHard · 15th Mar, 2005

Risks ?

Bill.L said:
What do you see as the down side risks in the NavTrade system??

Hi Bill

To try to answer your question, in my case, I have concentrated more on the risks of NOT using the Navra fund to do something with my lazy equity. I mean I could leave it in the bank, or stick some in direct shares. On your example, actually yes I did hold shares in NAB from their $30 days through the last 12 months. I didn't say I was smart, just happy to learn

I have had mixed success and to put too much of my available equity in direct investment would be like sticking 3 bullets in a sixgun pointed at my head and pulling the trigger.

I have a certain goal to reach that I believe will be helped with the income from the NavraInvest fund, and I believe based on its past performance and my understanding of the strategies and fundamentals used, the risks associated are acceptable. I understand the last 2 years are not typical, but given that much of the NavTrade system arises out of volatility, are you saying that there would be zero volatility in blue chip hand picked stocks in the market situation you're describing ?

I know the fund can still generate a return in a downward-heading market, and I know so far I am better off having been in the fund. (ADDED : sorry I mean better off compared to the options I had available to me that I felt comfortable trying to manage)

Its all fun
Cheers
TryHard

Sunfish · 15th Mar, 2005

TryHard said:
I know the fund can still generate a return in a downward-heading market, and I know so far I am better off having been in the fund.

Its all fun
Cheers
TryHard

Standard funds, long on blue chips would have great difficulty profiting during a long term bull market. Everybody I spoke lost money in their super funds in 2002.

In the US they have specific "bear" funds and sector funds but there is little on offer here so I'll paddle my own canoe.

Thommo

topcropper · 15th Mar, 2005

The simple fact of the matter is that in the last 2 years, every method has worked. Thats because the market is up by over 50% across the board, over 60% including dividends.

When the tide goes out, we will all see who has no pants on.

See ya's.

Corsa · 15th Mar, 2005

Dear Bill and Somersoft Forum Members

Thank-you Bill for giving us an opportunity to try and communicate some of the perceived issues that some people may be experiencing over the past few weeks of posting.

My response is not necessarily directed to you but to everyone who participates in this forum.

I believe that as part of this forum we need to:

Respect - appreciate the differences that make each of us unique and actively show respect to one another through our interactions. Be polite, courteous, show empathy and understanding for each other.

Listen - take on board what people are saying but continue to exercise your own due diligence. We are still dealing with unknown persons over the internet so people should not just blindly follow what any one person has to say. Over time, peoples reputations precede them and ultimately this will effect people's decisions to rely more significantly on what they are saying over others.

Integrity - at the end of the day if you believe in yourself and what your point of view is then that is all that matters. If the rest of the world doesnt agree or take on board your advice then so be it. Sometimes people just have to let it go when others don't agree with them.

I am an optimist by nature and I believe that the fact that I have not personally experienced several booms or busts does not put me in any better or worser position than others who have been around the traps longer. I take on board the level of risk I personally feel comfortable with and I live and die by my own decision making.

I personally truly appreciate the varied members that make up this forum and I believe that we can all learn something from each other whether that be in various methods or dealing with specific issues, the Somersoft Forum is a wonderful place.

There is no need for anyone to leave to the extent that we can continue to respect and listen to each other moving forward.

Best Wishes

Corsa

TryHard · 15th Mar, 2005

Surfs Up!

topcropper said:
When the tide goes out, we will all see who has no pants on.

I bet when the tide goes out, Paris Hilton will have no pants on, but her nett worth will still be looking ok

Ecogirl · 15th Mar, 2005

TryHard said:
I bet when the tide goes out, Paris Hilton will have no pants on, but her nett worth will still be looking ok

I believe that that statement deserves a yellow card TryHard

Next time try harder

Ecogirl

geoffw · 15th Mar, 2005

TryHard said:
I bet when the tide goes out, Paris Hilton will have no pants on, but her nett worth will still be looking ok

When the tide goes out, the waves will be a lot flatter

quiggles · 15th Mar, 2005

I wouldn't mind getting back to BillL.'s topic, guys.

That was a top post by Corsa, with the properly made point that it was a call to everyone, not anyone in particular.

Les · 15th Mar, 2005

G'day Thommo,

If the topic is shares, then my approach is to buy what is rising in price, and to have a stoploss point where I get out if I am wrong.

What's got into you Les?

What Bill said is a simple statement on share trading. If you want more detail go a shares forum or ask here, (politely) and one the many knowledgeable traders will help.

Thommo, I certainly didn't try to ask any other way than politely - but, if it came out wrong, my apologies ..... I also understand that the written word has it's short-comings, so I might have seemed (to you, at least - maybe others too), that I was "picking on Bill" - this was never my intent.

I was hoping to draw Bill.L out a bit more - and he has obliged (thanks, Bill). What I saw was a minimum of detail, which I tried to show. My thought was to allow others to "pick the brains" of another successful share trader by having Bill post more detail. It seems to have worked

Anyway, this thread is good value - keep it coming, all,

Regards,

Sunfish · 15th Mar, 2005

Les said:
G'day Thommo,

Thommo, I certainly didn't try to ask any other way than politely - but, if it came out wrong, my apologies ..... I also understand that the written word has it's short-comings, so I might have seemed (to you, at least - maybe others too), that I was "picking on Bill" - this was never my intent.

I was hoping to draw Bill.L out a bit more - and he has obliged (thanks, Bill). What I saw was a minimum of detail, which I tried to show. My thought was to allow others to "pick the brains" of another successful share trader by having Bill post more detail. It seems to have worked

Anyway, this thread is good value - keep it coming, all,

Regards,

Les, Those of us not directly involved read the relevent threads in a disjointed manner and skimmed some long posts (at least I assume I wasn't the only one) but I put you firmly in the "Kill Bill" camp. Am I mistaken? (Note; A question)

As I am also a Bill I know how it feels to be the Bill in regular members sights.

SommerSoft Forum is a fraud when you say you welcome dissenting opinion. I know from bitter experience that it is not so.

Regards Bill Thommo

Les · 15th Mar, 2005

G'day again, Thommo - or is that Bill

(your words...)

Les, Those of us not directly involved read the relevent threads in a disjointed manner and skimmed some long posts (at least I assume I wasn't the only one) but I put you firmly in the "Kill Bill" camp. Am I mistaken?

From where I sit, Thommo, yes, you are mistaken. I DO welcome diverse opinion, so long as it all remains respectful.

In Bill's case, his posts NEVER use bad language (that I recall), and the only reason I tended to show any negativity toward Bill was that (in the Navra thread) Bill did (in my eyes) tend to state "this won't work" rather than "HOW COULD this work". And a few of my posts do use examples to show this is the way I felt. But, again, maybe the written word didn't quite convey what I was trying to say. Obviously, Steve DID get quite upset ...... and I wondered why Bill didn't "get it" - but then, it's that written word again.

In THIS thread, I attempted to draw Bill out - so that we could all see "the other side" of someone who appears to have been successful in the sharemarket. In a way, I was attempting to have Bill provide some useful info relating to his OWN endeavours, rather than just remaining a foil (or is that a "prickle") to Steve Navra.

I have nothing against either of these two people. I've met Steve, but haven't (to my knowledge) got to meet Bill as yet. But I'd like to - there is obvious knowledge there, and I'd like to get some more of that.

And, re Bill's (and yours, and others) wanting to provide balance, I say "Cool!" and "Thank you". By all means do it, but, please, in a way that questions others, rather than stating your opinions of someone else's operation as fact. In so doing, it PROMOTES discussion without creating tension.

SommerSoft Forum is a fraud when you say you welcome dissenting opinion

You're not stating that as a fact, are you Thommo

Mate, I can't (and won't) answer for the forum - I've answered for ME above ......

Regards,

Bill.L · 15th Mar, 2005

Hi all,

Les,Thommo,

I did not think that Les was in the "Kill Bill" camp, but did think that he had not understood what I was trying to get at in that thread.

However there are one or two in the "Kill Bill" camp. I just wonder what I have ever done to them??

bye

Bill.L · 16th Mar, 2005

Hi all,

Corsa,

You make some very valid points, we should all treat each other with respect at all times. If this was so "flame" wars (is that the correct terminology ?) would not occur.

I have never started a "flame" war, with derogatory comments to anyone. I may have questioned a little too hard on a methodology (or part of).

A while ago someone (was it you?) gave a list of my coments in a thread stating that it showed I did "flame" people. There was only one personal attack in that list. (That attack was me quoting a "flame" that had been directed at myself, it did not come from me.)
Again a misunderstanding because of typed words.

We all are optimists in this forum, no-one would invest in the future if they were not. In the investment world far too many mistakes are made by being too optimistic. In the real world markets change character, what once went up, can later tumble. What didn't move for 10 years, can suddenly skyrocket. What works brilliantly most of the time, can suddenly go flat.
In a group investment situation, the psychology of the investors (some of)can change, right at the moment where they shouldn't.

I will not change my opinion on wether the negatives should be discussed. There is all too often an abundance of the optimists "you can't lose" by doing.....

Conversly, when the tone is too negative (ie house prices are oing too crash 60% in 6 months), I will become one who tries to show why that attitude is too pessimistic.

bye

Opinions in Investment

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TryHard

Sultan of Swing

Sunfish

TryHard

topcropper

Bill.L

willair

TryHard

Sunfish

topcropper

Corsa

TryHard

Ecogirl

geoffw

quiggles

Les

Sunfish

Les

Bill.L

Bill.L

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