The Beach-Price gradient

Material on property investing frequenly shows that capital growth, and thus land prices, decline with distance from the CBD (refer Wakelin et al).

We are also aware that beachfront properties with views command high prices. If it's across the road from the beach but there no views, the price is lower, but still high.

Walking distance from the beach is pretty good also (especially if there is no highway or railway in between), so you can expect better than average prices in these areas as well.

Assuming they have no special features, the inland suburbs are cheaper still.

Note though that 3km from the beach would be an inland suburb for a regional city, whereas for a large capital, it is closer than most suburbs to it, and agents can still reasonably advertise 'handy to beach'.

Has anyone actually done an analysis of the extent to which land values fall away as you get further from the beach? Do such patterns tend to be linear, logarithmic or inverse-logarithmic progression?

For instance, a beachfront house with views might be $X, one across the road from a beach is 0.7 $X, one a few streets back is 0.5 $X and one inland may sell for 0.3 $X. Note though that the houses may be different, so there is a need to calculate on land values only.

Put distance across the x axis and price for the y axis.

I haven't done this exercise myself, so I don't know if the shape and steepness of the gradient varies between regional and metropolitan coastal areas.

Obviously more people want waterfront views in Brighton than Carnarvon (to pick a random example), so the houses with waterfront view will be dearer in the former.

However a house 3km inland from Brighton Beach would still attract a 'coastal' premium, so it would also be expensive. In contrast, a house 3km inland from somewhere like Carnarvon would attract no coast premium at all as almost all houses in town are no further than this inland. So the price ratio between coast views and non-coast houses (or more precisely their land component) might not necessarily be that different, even though the locations couldn't be more different.

It could be another story again with an outer suburb not considered as desirable as Brighton; Frankston for instance. Waterfront houses there are dear, but inland are much cheaper. Therefore the gradient could be quite steep.

Such graphs could be made every few kilometres along the coast, (eg Mentone, Mordialloc, Chelsea, Carrum, Seaford, Frankston, Frankston South etc), so you get results in two, not just one, 'dimensions'.

Taking into account future developments, projected demand and local amenity, could such Beach-Price gradient graphing be a useful tool in identifying potentially underpriced areas, much as people now do this with distance from the CBD maps?

For instance, if a graph is particularly steep or has a flat spot (eg no price difference between 0.5 and 3 km back from the beach), then wouldn't the area at 0.5km distance be worth investigating further as an 'up and coming' locality?

Rgds, Peter
 
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Just a guess but the value of property might be a mutliple regression - the factors might be something like, distance from beach, distance from Melbourne (or major satellite of Melb eg Ballarat/Bendigo/Geelong), size of land, view etc.

gniks :))
 
Interesting topic Spiderman!

You might also want to include some socio-economic data in there as well.

- median household income

- percentage of unemployed

- crime rate per capita

Are there any intangibles you can think of that could be reduced down to some kind of weighted number in a fuzzy logic kind of way.

Obviously you'd need access to lots of data sources.

Sounds like a fun project!

(I love databases ;))
 
mmerlin said:
Interesting topic Spiderman!

You might also want to include some socio-economic data in there as well.

- median household income
- percentage of unemployed
- crime rate per capita

I'd add education (trade, uni or none) as well.

Sounds like a fun project!

As much as I respect intellectual rigour, and feel that this is sorely lacking amongst even some otherwise well-regarded property advisers, there is a risk that spending too much time on refining a model (which might not necessarily work in all markets at all times) might lead to opportunities missed.

For instance, if a good suburb in a growing coastal town has beachfront houses around 400k, more 'normal' 3/4br houses at $150 - $250k, then an $80k 2br semi-detached a couple of streets back from the beach in that suburb is probably fair buying without too much further analysis.

Rgds, Peter
 
Don't forget property condition, neighbouring property condition, land size, area demographics & the irrational factor.... :)

Cheers,

Aceyducey
 
I remember reading a Residex report 5 years ago where they looked at capital gain vs proximity to cdb, and capital gain vs proximity to beach/coast.

What had the greatest gain? The ones with the proximity to the coast.
 
G'day Spiderman

My observations.

Adelaide, southern beachs. 10yrs ago the wife and I went looking for 1st PPOR, had a look at beachside suburbs, SEAFORD, PORT NOARLUNGA SOUTH, MOANA which are about 30-40 minutes from Adelaide, small suburbs that stretch along the coast so only 1-1.5km from beach at the most. We could have bought for $65-$80k for a cheap 3broom 1960/70 average house instead bought a 3broom house about 10 minutes away, inland for $80k it had rumpus room and study, 2 toilets, little bit bigger than the coastal stuff. Sold this place 5years later for $85k at that time the coastal stuff had gone to $100k. Bought vacant land on esplanade for $80k stuff 1 street back was $45k and futher back was $38k.

5years pass..

Land is now $450k on esplanade, $125-150k 1km back, $250-300k 1 street back. Full blocks are 700-800sqm (lots of divided blocks 330-400sqm) old suburbs surveyed around 1950/60 mark, still got some fibro beach shacks but also some nice new townhouses and big houses. Little blocks aren't much different price wise than the big blocks.

Average 1960/70 3broom house is now $200-250k, new houses are $300k.

The old suburb that we used to live in, the average houses are $150-180k.

Hope that helps.

cheers
quoll
 
Beach Prices

Hi For your info

Bought in to Dalyellup (Bunbury WA) 2 years ago for 85K
block 200 meters from the beach
Smaller block next door currently on the maket for $220K. :)

This area is still releasing blocks at about 30 at a time with an average increase of 20K per release (Up to 200K per block 400 meters from the beach). I would guess there to be approx of about 400 lots left to develope over the next 18 months.

It has one access rd to the beach division area and is very close to a lot of facilities.

It will be interesting when they run out of blocks. I know that for developments approvals near the beach these days its getting harder. :mad:

Cheers
 
Quoll,

you have provided some interesting information about historical pricing. What I find interesting is that while the "close to beach" prices seem on first appearance to have increased signficantly more than inland prices, the pricing ratio itself appears to have stayed very similar (based loosely on your figures provided).

I have also noted this to be the case in other situations, such as units/houses ratios, and cheaper/expensive homes.

From memory I think it was in one of the Somersoft books that they compared over 20 years all capital cities, and the purchase of cheaper rentals in HObart compared to Sydney or Melbourne ended up being about the same in the long run, based on cheaper purchase price, and higher yields etc

All interesting stuff,

Tim
 
Tim said:
you have provided some interesting information about historical pricing. What I find interesting is that while the "close to beach" prices seem on first appearance to have increased signficantly more than inland prices, the pricing ratio itself appears to have stayed very similar (based loosely on your figures provided).

When I looked at a 1979 Perth newspaper a few days ago, I noted that Rockingham prices were around the metropolitan average. Then in the late 90s they were mostly a bit below (maybe by 20-25%).

In the last few years, encouraged by urban expansion and new infrastructure they seem to have caught up so they are now near the metropolitan average again.

Being 'close to the beach' is regarded as desirable today. But is there any evidence that it was any less desirable 30-40 years ago? Or is it just growing urban pressure causing beachside property to be relatively more scarce than it was?

I suspect that this would depend on the city and if the main urban growth corridors are coastal or inland. Two of Perth's five major growth corridors are coastal, whereas I don't think any of Melbourne's are apart from a bit of infill here and there.

Rgds, Peter
 
Beach culture really took off 40-50 years ago. Before that beaches were not regarded with anywhere near the same popularity. It was related to cultural taboos on nudity and behaviour which lightened significantly post-WWII (yes you can thank the Nazis for bikinis...or at least the French)

Could we go back to having official representatives measuring the length of swimsuits on beaches (both women's and men's and in my parent's memory, not so long ago)?

Yup we could, but the cultural swing would take some time.....maybe we could even swing the pendulum back to 'bathing frequently in water makes you weak, womanly and sick' - hmmmmm, good for us inland property holders!

BTW beaches are significantly more influential on property prices where the weather is more beach-friendly. Hence you'll find some natural discrepencies between Perth and Melbourne. There's not that high a demand for beach property in Tasmania either for example.

Technically there is greater scarsity for land within Xm of a decent beach with decent infrastructure in the area, so while beaches are desirable places to be - or to say you live nearby for prestige reasons even if you never go there - there will be a naturally higher demand for prime beachside land.

However you'll find very few serious mathematicians who would take the risk of investing in coastal land.....coastlines are technically virtually infinite in length :D

And events such as more tsunamis through the earth entering a more tectonically active period, rising water levels through ice cap melt-off, tidal surges through variations in orbital movement (such as either Ming's or the Cybermen's planets) or mysterious aliens who prefer high pressure living at the bottom of our oceans and creep onshore to grab terrified beach goers and devour them, or, perhaps less farfetched, genetically mutated sharks created by a terrorist bioengineer determined to protect earth from the wages of sin, small bikinis and their own adolescent failure to succeed with women, could all have some very interesting effects on beach prices.

As could a hyperspace bypass....but that would also get rid of all that worthless land in the middle of continents as well - after all, you shoud always look on the bright side of life.

Cheers,

Aceyducey
 
beachside RE

And events such as more tsunamis through the earth entering a more tectonically active period, rising water levels through ice cap melt-off, tidal surges through variations in orbital movement (such as either Ming's or the Cybermen's planets) or mysterious aliens who prefer high pressure living at the bottom of our oceans and creep onshore to grab terrified beach goers and devour them, or, perhaps less farfetched, genetically mutated sharks created by a terrorist bioengineer determined to protect earth from the wages of sin, small bikinis and their own adolescent failure to succeed with women, could all have some very interesting effects on beach prices.

:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:

Hey Ace

You have me worried.... do I sell all my IP's now? :confused:


cheers
Tim
 
Aceyducey said:
However you'll find very few serious mathematicians who would take the risk of investing in coastal land.....coastlines are technically virtually infinite in length :D

And events such as more tsunamis through the earth entering a more tectonically active period, rising water levels through ice cap melt-off, tidal surges through variations in orbital movement (such as either Ming's or the Cybermen's planets) or mysterious aliens who prefer high pressure living at the bottom of our oceans and creep onshore to grab terrified beach goers and devour them, or, perhaps less farfetched, genetically mutated sharks created by a terrorist bioengineer determined to protect earth from the wages of sin, small bikinis and their own adolescent failure to succeed with women, could all have some very interesting effects on beach prices.

As could a hyperspace bypass....but that would also get rid of all that worthless land in the middle of continents as well - after all, you shoud always look on the bright side of life.

Cheers,

Aceyducey

Hehe AC - there are very few real mathematicians who invest, or go outdoors!!!

The risks!!!! :p
 
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