Deer Park or Point Cook?

Gday Guys

Just want some melbournian's opinions, or people that are familiar with Melbourne's western suburbs:

Just wondering what area you think may experience the most capital growth in the next 5 years or so - "Point Cook" or the "Deer Park/Brimbank" area.

Some positives i know of about in both areas:

Brinkank / Deer Park - Obviously the Deer Park Bypass going ahead soon, close proximity to the city( 15mns non peak) the likelyhood of the Deer Park railway station being made electric within 5 - 7 years, brand new gold course in area soon, high growth area for commercial properties and businesses which should increase rental demands.

Point Cook - Close proximity to the city ( 20 mns) , Old RAAF base right next door being done up as a commercial, retail and residential area which includes a brand new railway station between Hoppers Crossing and Laverton, Sanctury Lakes Golf Course and estate, a good rental demand in area

Just wondering what your thoughts are - they would be greatly appreciated

Cheers

Lozza

Deer Park, flat alluvial clay pan lands requiring deep foundations, pretty stable ground, but BORING, good shopping centers, say Hi to my mum.

Point Cook: salt flats, requiring really really (really[sup]2[/sup]) deep foundations.
When the Sanctuary lakes estates were being built the ground level was raised above low tide line by the expedient of dumping the rubble from the demolition of the corner of spring and latrobe street government buildings into the mud.
I drove one of the fleet of semi trailer dumpers running 24/6 (1 day off) down princess highway full of rubble. The ground is full of broken concrete and asbestos wall insulation steel rebar bricks chipboard topped with 12-18 inches of the original topsoil scraped of and dumped back on top of the fill.
The buildings for cheatham salt works are still on site, the ground below the fill is salted and as soon as trees get their roots down they die.
When the slab for the Sanctuary lakes welcome center, now a restaurant, was poured it was in the wrong place. They pushed two jcv bulldozers up against the edge of the slab and slid it into the right place through the soup. The ground is really unstable, all those expensive GregNormanGolfCourse houses are very short lived
There are several large metal frame boxes around the new point Cook estates. They are the covers over the sump pumps. Each one covers a 12 foot deep pit with two 30inch diameter pumps in it hooked up to pipelines out to the bay to try and keep the salt water table out of the houses. Dont take my word for it 30yards inside the gate on Sanctuary boulevard Right hand side, read the label on the box. If the power fails for any length of time it will flood, the lakes are NOT decorative.
The older parts of Point Cook, Closer to RAAF point Cook, and Closer to McDonalds/princes hwy are nearly 10 feet higher above sea level than the newer estates in the middle of the road and a much better deal. There were a number of ex-RAAF married quarters around Strezlecki Rd that would be great IPs, older properties but the maintainence contracts on DHA houses were great.
The really new estates olong the East-West roads between point Cook Rd and the highway are on the higher ground and should be really stable, there are fish in the Skeleton Creek, only carp but its clean enough for them to live.
There are beaches in the area that only very local people know about, completely clean unspoiled, as the access ways look wrong.
I liked Point Cook. I lived in Strezlecki rd in a RAAF house, I lived in Laverton in an ex-housing commission house I bought for 90K and sold for 158K two years later, paint and plants no major reno needed

Hi AlmostBob,

VERY interesting post!! Thanks! We've got a few friends who are looking around Sanctuary Lakes, Point Cook area for PPOR, I'll show them your post.

Cheers,
Jen

lozza said:

Point Cook - Close proximity to the city ( 20 mns) , Old RAAF base right next door being done up as a commercial, retail and residential area which includes a brand new railway station between Hoppers Crossing and Laverton, Sanctury Lakes Golf Course and estate, a good rental demand in area

Click to expand...

It's true that a station is proposed for Pt Cook. It was even in the government's Transport & Liveability Statement out last week.

However the Bracks/Batchelor government is notorious for breaking its written promises on transport, so any purchase on the basis of the station going ahead would be highly speculative. It's not like WA where if Gallop/Carpenter/McTiernan promised anything it normally got built.

There are parts of Pt Cook that are quite close to the unattended Aircraft Station (which also has an active shopping strip). However since it (and the the proposed Point Cook Station) is in Zone 2, most people will drive to the existing manned zone 1 station at Laverton (which features a largely abandoned shopping strip).

Peter

On the south side of the highway, the traffic is REALLY bad, and it might be a turnoff for a lot of people, particularly for such a new area.

Also, consider the amount of open land still available around Point Cook, and whether your IP will have a scarcity factor any time soon.

Tubs

north side of westgate highway - laverton?

tubs said:

On the south side of the highway, the traffic is REALLY bad, and it might be a turnoff for a lot of people, particularly for such a new area.

Also, consider the amount of open land still available around Point Cook, and whether your IP will have a scarcity factor any time soon.

Tubs

Click to expand...

I looked at map and it seems Laverton is just north of Point Cook and not far from Dear Park. Also checked out realestate.com.au and property is around $200k .... big blocks, crap houses it seems. Not bad for a joint less than 20km from CDB. Is there a nuclear waste dump nearby???

jonny

I lived at the RAAF base in Laverton for about 6 before my parents moved to Werribee. One of my sisters just sold her house at the Broadwalk, not far from Pointcook. It was a 2 storey house, 3 bdr, ensuite and large backyard for 240k about 4 years ago and sold it a few months ago for 320k. Another sister has just bought a house in Seabrook which is also a stones throw from Pointcook. Its a 3bdr, ensuite, ducted heating, lock-up garage and large backyard for 270k.

I like both those areas but personally think Laverton is the way to go for investment. The houses are cheap, its not far from the city and even though it had a bad reputation when I was growing up thats all slowley starting to change as people come in and snap up the cheap houses & renovate them. With the new plans they are looking at doing to the RAAF base and also the new marina they are building at Werribee Sth I think Laverton will come into its own with the next 4 years. It would also be interesting to keep your eyes out on Werribee Sth and the farm land around there. My brother is a market gardener on one of the farms and he says that in 4+ years time more and more land will be up for sale as the farmers will sell/ sub-divide and move to the outskirts of Melb and set up out there because the land is relatively cheap.

Just my thoughts.

Kate

joncornia said:

I looked at map and it seems Laverton is just north of Point Cook and not far from Dear Park. Also checked out realestate.com.au and property is around $200k .... big blocks, crap houses it seems. Not bad for a joint less than 20km from CDB. Is there a nuclear waste dump nearby???

Click to expand...

No.

But maximum security Port Phillip Prison is in that nothing territory between Laverton and Deer Park.

The connection between Laverton and the prison is particularly strong given that there is a free prison bus that leaves Laverton Station every hour. Hence the area attracts many people who are 'just visiting'.

I agree that long-term Laverton should do well, though the local shopping strip is all but abandoned apart from the op-shop.

Peter

AlmostBob said:

D
There are several large metal frame boxes around the new point Cook estates. They are the covers over the sump pumps. Each one covers a 12 foot deep pit with two 30inch diameter pumps in it hooked up to pipelines out to the bay to try and keep the salt water table out of the houses. Dont take my word for it 30yards inside the gate on Sanctuary boulevard Right hand side, read the label on the box. If the power fails for any length of time it will flood, the lakes are NOT decorative.

Click to expand...

Geez. New Orleans anyone?

barracuda2 said:

Geez. New Orleans anyone?

Click to expand...

But the socio-economics will be reversed.

The yuppies at Pt Cook will be underwater, whereas the plebs at Werribee or Laverton will be high and dry. Maybe boat ownership should be made a condition of moving in

Peter

Ex-Laverton pleb here
lived in 12 Hickey street, when there was the op shop, cop shop, fish shop, pizza shop, chinese restaurant, bank, post office, bottle shop, laundromat,
$2 shop, till the bank closed and everything else evaporated

bought for 90K
sold for 158K 19 months later, without really trying, bugger all reno done, wanted to leave she was in Canada

5 Cynthia Crt, 13 Strezlecki Ave, 284 Victoria Altona meadows not richmond
really good capital growth
returns in the area were huge, (are huge ?)
there are large demands for labor intensive industries, the banks say are casual employment and the 60K incomes arent guaranteed, so the labor force cant get easy loans and give up trying, so fall into rentals rental demand is large. I worked as a shift hand at one of the warehouses and there were always coworkers leaving me their contact details for when any tenant moved out.

Shh its a secret
Travel down Point Cook Rd
Last road left before the Airbase
First Right into Regional Park gate
Follow the drive bearing left at each fork in the road (I think 2 but its been a few years, 2-3km to the last unspoiled beaches in Melb.
please take your bloody rubbish home with you

Or second right to the Pt Cook Homestead, the Carlton United Horses live in the barns and are a lot of fun

Hey Guys,
That "secret" beach that AlmostBob's talking about played a big part in the wife and i deciding to buy land in point cook 4 years ago, i was surprised at the massive stretch of deserted coastline that you could almost feel like it was all yours!

Have a look in a melways on map 199 and you can see the size of the point cook coastal park and youll see what i mean.

Now that they have new barbecues, play equipment etc down there it really has become a place for family get togethers, kick the footy, play cricket etc.

In terms of traffic in the area, i saw a proposal for a sayers road extension about 3 years ago that would join up to Dunnings road and give another freeway access. Not sure how far down the track it will happen though.
I think i got it off the Wynham council website.

I loved living in the area while we did, just too far from the inlaws,(Aspendale) and when the little woman started thinkin babies, we shifted closer to them just over a year ago.

Getting a decent rent for our house in point cook though,i guess it sort of pushed us to become investors a liitle quicker than planned, which was fine with me

Cheers

Paranoia check

AlmostBob said:

There are several large metal frame boxes around the new point Cook estates. They are the covers over the sump pumps. Each one covers a 12 foot deep pit with two 30inch diameter pumps in it hooked up to pipelines out to the bay to try and keep the salt water table out of the houses. Dont take my word for it 30yards inside the gate on Sanctuary boulevard Right hand side, read the label on the box. If the power fails for any length of time it will flood, the lakes are NOT decorative.

Click to expand...

Did the bold bit seem a little paranoid, it does to me, I just meant that the evidence was visible

I have friends who bought in Sanctuary Lakes, when like me they had been driving the dumpers full of landfill,
I have always always wondered ...........
why, anyone bought there
why, the sales agents promoting the place didnt getting sued,
how, did anyone's due diligence let them even consider buying there

Even Just before I left Melb, nearly 10 years after the demo of the green boxes at Spring and Latrobe. If you stood anywhere in Sanctuary Lakes you have to look UP to see across Skeleton Creek to Altona Green

And another thing to ponder, in the same general area, Rifle Range estate Williamstown
for 70 years more than three hundred men per day, fired 237 rounds each in qualifying shoots for 303, SLR, F1 and other small arms when it was a rifle range
237 * 300 * about 100 days/year *70 years
497700000 rounds
55g lead per round

27,373.5 tonnes of lead
punched up to 3m deep in the soil
lead poisoning is slow and irreversible, and works best(? worst) in children,
raise a family there, I'd rather not.

A reply to a pers msg that I thought was good for this thread,

rodimus said:

HI almostbob,
thanks for your message.

In Laverton is there a housing commission?

Also, are there many new land releases there?
I am always weary of places where new land release is abundant..

Click to expand...

Laverton was a housing commission suburb, veterans homes post wwii, dole bludgers homes later than that, but like homesglen Ashburton Heidelberg Fairfield it has been sold to private people and is upscaling, very steadily upscaling. In laverton itself there is little room for new releases, but it is surrounded by expanding suburbs. There will be a demand for Laverton as people realise how close it is to the CBD, good beaches, shopping centers,and that there are established gardens and trees, parks on every block, and notice that the 'bad elements' dont live there any more, they can't afford it. Heaps of people told me I was stupid to move there, but it was like a little country town, very friendly, no crime ( the police station shut at 8pm ), clean, good services. and best part

Average 18% capital growth for 9 years
1996 40K
2000 90K buy
2002 158K sell, I think I could have got higher if I werent leaving the country, time pressures
2006 225K selling prices, for very similar row houses in the same row

Of course that wont/cant continue forever
Bob

AlmostBob said:

Laverton was a housing commission suburb, veterans homes post wwii, dole bludgers homes later than that, but like homesglen Ashburton Heidelberg Fairfield it has been sold to private people and is upscaling, very steadily upscaling.

Click to expand...

I agree that Laverton will do well long-term, but of all the suburbs in Melbourne I've visited, Laverton has the most derelict and empty shopping strip bar the one at Albion Station where not one business continues to operate. Laverton rivals Braybrook whose two shopping strips are more derelict but much less empty (noting that bigger centres have opened down the road).

If anything local commerce in Laverton has gone downhill in the last 3 years and the op-shop is about the only substantial business left. Hey, Laverton can't even sustain a two-dollar shop and a Tatts outlet, both of which are the archetype low income suburb shops (as Lonsdale St Dandenong confirms).

In contrast, the area near Aircraft station is doing much better, but it's very small and hemmed in by the freeway so has limited expansion room, unless it takes over houses to the east, south of the railway. The main problem is that Aircraft is in Zone 2 for the train. Thus people will need to leave their car at Laverton Station and go from there.

If Laverton does well and the shops remain as derelict as they are then this means that 'spot the cafes' is not always a reliable indicator of an up and coming suburb.

Peter

Spiderman said:

I agree that Laverton will do well long-term, but of all the suburbs in Melbourne I've visited, Laverton has the most derelict and empty shopping strip bar the one at Albion Station where not one business continues to operate. Laverton rivals Braybrook whose two shopping strips are more derelict but much less empty (noting that bigger centres have opened down the road).

If anything local commerce in Laverton has gone downhill in the last 3 years and the op-shop is about the only substantial business left. Hey, Laverton can't even sustain a two-dollar shop and a Tatts outlet, both of which are the archetype low income suburb shops (as Lonsdale St Dandenong confirms).

In contrast, the area near Aircraft station is doing much better, but it's very small and hemmed in by the freeway so has limited expansion room, unless it takes over houses to the east, south of the railway. The main problem is that Aircraft is in Zone 2 for the train. Thus people will need to leave their car at Laverton Station and go from there.

If Laverton does well and the shops remain as derelict as they are then this means that 'spot the cafes' is not always a reliable indicator of an up and coming suburb.

Peter

Click to expand...

Purchase residential investment properties or shopping centers? 40K to 250k in 10 years, plus whatever it is doing now. Local shops are irrelevant for a suburb with 2 freeway exits, 2 large malls, commuters who shop elsewhere. one of the strangest property barometers I have heard of, does it generally work?. because all the new subdivisions, and suburbs are entirely vehicle centered and dont have any local shops at all.

Werribee South

I have have been informed that the 'Werribee South Marina Project' is taking shape and seems to be gathering government support. I think that this would add enhance the area and help raise property values.

Spiderman said:

If anything local commerce in Laverton has gone downhill in the last 3 years and the op-shop is about the only substantial business left. Hey, Laverton can't even sustain a two-dollar shop and a Tatts outlet, both of which are the archetype low income suburb shops (as Lonsdale St Dandenong confirms).

Click to expand...

Having returned from Laverton today, I can confirm that there are signs of life that weren't there during my last expedition.

1. There is now not one but two shops trading in the shopping strip. Joining the op-shop is a 'community support' shop. This is half op-shop and half $2 shop and half cheap hardware. Dark with stuff everwhere.

Both shopkeepers gave me a friendly welcome - there is no one on the streets, and I suspect that I was the first customer anyone had seen this morning.

2. There are big earthworks in the street outside the shops. It's a mess but some good could come out of it when it's finished.

3. More public transport. I mentioned the unmarked bus to Port Phillip max security Prison and that Laverton was a popular spot for those 'just visiting'. Last week the prison bus was joined by a new 7-day service. This serves three correctional facilities (incl PP & a remand centre) and links Laverton to Deer Park and Sunshine.

4. The beginnings of a community garden.

Peter

Spiderman said:

2. There are big earthworks in the street outside the shops. It's a mess but some good could come out of it when it's finished.


Peter

Click to expand...

You mean they are going to start mining now? Watch out! Resource based boom about to happen in Laverton....

Cheers,

The Y-man