Michael Yardneys last great property Boom

Hi All,

Went to MY's Perth seminar last week.
Just a question maybe others far wiser than me maybe could explain.

MY talked about the next property boom coming as need for a lot more housing is coming up in the next decade - which all makes sense.
But then he said after this boom all the baby boomers die off - but as us Aussies dont create enough babies anymore (not sure what the problem is here - Ive got 3 so Im doing my bit...) our population will then rapidly decline.
He even showed us one of those scary curves which slope down of the bottom of the page...
Im sure u Sydneyites are experts in those sorts of curves.
But us here WAites prefer the curves that go up and up and up of the top of the page.
Now Although we import lots of non-Aussies apparently there just aint enough imports to fill the gap so our population is gonna go down and down leaving to oversupply of houses blah blah which the old supply and demand means prices go down and stay down ... forever.
Now I must have missed something here because the good Mr Yardney took my money (not very much though - it was a fair price) to tell me what a wonderful investment vehichle property is. But then he revealed this doom & gloom future which is imminent in my lifetime. So he got me wondering why am I so busy building this big asset base if its all gonna decrease in value.
For that case why also is Mr Yardney building his base. Unless of course he's in the 'baby boomer' category so hes thinking it doesnt really matter by then!!

Any comments / solutions please.

As for my solution - think I'll go see the wife now and try to do my bit at increasing the Aussie portion..
BTW if u dont have a few kids your missing out - there way more fun than houses!!

Dear GrantC,

1. Perhaps, you could have followed-up this with Michael Yardney during the seminar itself for the audience sake then.

2. Alternatively, you may want to invite him to clarify his views in this forum as a fellow forumite so that the other members are able to follow the discussion subsequently. Nothing's better in this forum than to hear directly from the horses' mouth i.e to hear the views from Michael Yardney himself.

3. For your kind update, please.

4. Thank you.

regards,
Kenneth KOH

from what i have read as predicitions for the "experts", yes micheal is correct in that the population will decline - however, single person household are predicted to rise significantly. so the final wash is that there will be an increase in household numbers, but of a smaller size.

taking this view we are currently investing in buying land and building 2 bed/2bath townhouses to hold. this would suit two single people living together or a single parent, or retired couple etc ... remembering that even people living alone like an extra bedroom for office or visitors or storage.

however, as michael said - there is an expected boom in the meantime, so why not buy up now, ride the boom and cash up near the peak? ... then you'll be cashed up ready for anything that should happen the other side.

And I think that the thing to realise is that the current stock of houses that are being built and/or owned will be snapped up by current and future demand. If you buy 100 houses before the market falls then yes you will have vacant homes. But the likely hood of bulk buying on this scale would be slim. (for me anyway)
My thoughts are to go like mad now, build a balanced portfolio, then near to the crash, decrease LVR, increase cash flow. And you dont have to pick the top, just be aware of the imminent change - dont get caught up in a boom/herd mentality.

As the baby boomers die off through next decade, wouldn't the Howard government simply allow more immigration? I can't see the government allowing the population to decrease as that would lead to decreasing GDP and that gets governments voted out.

mdk92 said:

As the baby boomers die off through next decade, wouldn't the Howard government simply allow more immigration? I can't see the government allowing the population to decrease as that would lead to decreasing GDP and that gets governments voted out.

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Sounds right to me . I think there are plenty of people who would only be too happy to come over here and work hard in return for an opportunity.

See Change

A long time ago, I read Robert Kiyosaki's Prophecy which predicted a similar problem for the US stock market when baby boomers will be forced by ERISA ([SIZE=-1]Employee Retirement Income Security Act) [/SIZE]legislation to withdraw all their money from 401(K) by age 70. Based on the "bulge", most of the BB will pass that mark in 2017.

If a similar problem for property may happen, then there has to be a plan for it. Both government will want to ensure the population does not stagnate. Immigration is a big lever for that. I'm sure the discussion will pick up here slowly, slowly.

Jireh

I can't see how people can believe the population will decrease? Medical developments mean people live longer and the birth success rate has increased. Other countries are defently increasing in population and I'm sure we will continue to increase immigration.

wouldn't get too caught up in long term graphs and things - just take on board key points such as the increase in the single person household etc and work towards that. otherwise you will sit around all day stressing about who said what will happen in 2035 and the reality is anything could happen.

Gurus are predicting depression, property booms, final booms, etc, etc.
You name it someone is predicting it. Data can be used by anyone to justify just about anything.
Why do gurus do this ? Why are there such variations ?

Gurus have to do this to maintain their high profile and cashflow, end of story.
Imagine if a guru said "there is nothing new in finance that hasn't been seen before, follow long term history, the known basics and you'll be right". they'd be right. But if a newbie guru claimed he had a secret or info on a boom or a crash ... who would get the most press, books sold, seminar seats filled and cash ? The newbie of course. I'm not saying that gurus just make it up ... many may believe what they are preaching.

I'm not saying that MY is wrong ... but I am saying he could be wrong, regardless of how many curves he shows. So listen to the gurus and educate yourself as best you can, then make your decisions, perhaps keeping various views in the back of your mind and having alternate plans in case something dramatic happens.

mdk92 said:

As the baby boomers die off through next decade, wouldn't the Howard government simply allow more immigration? I can't see the government allowing the population to decrease as that would lead to decreasing GDP and that gets governments voted out.

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++++++++++++++++++++++

... Provided Australia is able to continue to provide plentiful of attractive employment opportunities for skilled labour/professional peoples and still remains an attractive place to live in enough for these peoples around the world, to want to continue to migrate to Australia in the first place, then...

Cheers,
Kenneth KOH

Kennethkohsg said:

++++++++++++++++++++++

... Provided Australia is able to provide pleantiful of employment opportunities for shill labour and still remains an attractive place for people around the world to migrate to in the frst place, then...

Cheers,
Kenneth KOH

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That's right, eg there's questions like how far our water supply can be stretched and whether we continue to be perceived as a safe place.

Patosan said:

Gurus are predicting depression, property booms, final booms, etc, etc.
You name it someone is predicting it. Data can be used by anyone to justify just about anything.
Why do gurus do this ? Why are there such variations ?

Gurus have to do this to maintain their high profile and cashflow, end of story.
Imagine if a guru said "there is nothing new in finance that hasn't been seen before, follow long term history, the known basics and you'll be right". they'd be right. But if a newbie guru claimed he had a secret or info on a boom or a crash ... who would get the most press, books sold, seminar seats filled and cash ? The newbie of course. I'm not saying that gurus just make it up ... many may believe what they are preaching.

I'm not saying that MY is wrong ... but I am saying he could be wrong, regardless of how many curves he shows. So listen to the gurus and educate yourself as best you can, then make your decisions, perhaps keeping various views in the back of your mind and having alternate plans in case something dramatic happens.

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++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Dear Patosan,

1.While I do agree with you, I wish to emphasise the need for us to be able to keep a truly open mind and to be remain humble and having "teachable" attitudes towards life in order to adapt to the fast-changing world.

2. MY has shared with us his own experiences and views. It is up to each one of us to decide where we will agree with him and where we will disagree with him and to know the reasons why for ourselves.

3. It would have be far better if we remain open-minded and share with him where we disagree with him and the reasons why and to allow him an opportunity to further clarify on his views so that we call all truly learn from one another, whether during his seminar or/and in this forum as fellow forumites.

4. Why do we have to "suggest" his/other gurus' "intentions" behind him/them having a particular perspective and viewpoints, without giving him/them an opportunity to clarify himself/themselves or/and an opportunity to reply to your way of thinking about him/them accordingly, please?

5. In saying so, I am not sure whether I am here trying to remove my own filters or actually creating more filters for myself through this post.... Aceyducey, what do you say? Please teach me how to further learn to listen without filters, please.

6. Thank you in advance and looking forward to learning from you and all the other members, please.

7. Thank you.


regards,
Kenneth KOH

mdk92 said:

That's right, eg there's questions like how far our water supply can be stretched and whether we continue to be perceived as a safe place.

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Know any where that's safer ? , Outside Tasmania or New Zealand ....

See Change

see_change said:

Know any where that's safer ? , Outside Tasmania or New Zealand ....

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Hmm...... Please correct me if I am wrong, but isn't Tasmania STILL part of Australia?

skater said:

Hmm...... Please correct me if I am wrong, but isn't Tasmania STILL part of Australia?

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I havn't seen our IP's down there yet , but by all reports they consider them selves different ( and maybe we'd consider them different ..... )

See Change

Haven't we already answered this question in the thread One Last Hurrah for Property??

A crude summary of that thread would be:

- Even the most pessimistic of the ABS's population forecasts has the Australian population (currently 20,623,832 increasing to 24.9m in 2051, then falling to 22.4m in 2101 (still up 10% on now though).

- There will be significant new household formation as the number of persons per household declines (so even zero population growth can equate to an increased demand for property)

- There are marked differences in where population increases (and falls) are expected to occur


Refer back to that other thread for a much longer discussion.

M

see_change said:

I havn't seen our IP's down there yet , but by all reports they consider them selves different ( and maybe we'd consider them different ..... )

See Change

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SC, although you haven't seen your IPs here I can pretty much guarantee that it will be like my house, with a purpose built room for storing the pig shooting rifles (also used to keep the mainlanders and other foreigners away), as well as extra wide doorways so those with two heads can fit through

Kennethkohsg said:

4. Why do we have to "suggest" his/other gurus' "intentions" behind him/them having a particular perspective and viewpoints, without giving him/them an opportunity to clarify himself/themselves or/and an opportunity to reply to your way of thinking about him/them accordingly, please?

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Many people, especially inexperienced, will forget to ask what motivation is behind any given advice ... especially where payment is involved.
My comments were of a general nature. I certainly welcome all clarification posts from any guru, as they would be part of our great forum's learning process. No slight was intended on MY in fact I've had dealings with him and Metropole.

johnnyb said:

SC, although you haven't seen your IPs here I can pretty much guarantee that it will be like my house, with a purpose built room for storing the pig shooting rifles (also used to keep the mainlanders and other foreigners away), as well as extra wide doorways so those with two heads can fit through

Click to expand...

Ahh , so that's why the narrow door way had all those dings on the paint work. Explains a lot . Ta

The one time I've been Tassie was in ? end of 81 at the height of the Franklin River Dispute . Was an interesting holiday .

After driving the car on the ferry I had to walk overa walkway into the ferry. ( Jeans / T shirt ) . Voice boomed down from above , " go back to the mainland you f.... greenie ".

Highlight was the camp site at Strahan . We were camping in the middle , next to a creek , heard splashing in the morning , looked out and there were a couple of platypus about 10 feet away. Down one end the greenies had their base , and near the entrance were some hydro workers camping . Had a chat to a few and they said they could understand why the greenies were putting up such a fight , but their wifes...... had their kids running around with T-Shirts saying " Save a job , napalm a Greenie" . One night we were going to go into the pub for a drink , we were advised that wouldn't be a good idea.

See Change