BHP-where to next?

At present $35. I do not hold any BHP shares. I cannot find an entry point in buying. If you hold BHP shares where do you see it heading and if you don't why haven't you got any? It seems BHP is a reflection of aussie wealth.

BHP has been very good to me, and suits my investing style. I like to think of myself as being the part owner of a company, which I am really, so I want to own part of BHP's assets. What a magnificent portfolio of extremely long life assets?

I've just been buying on every dip for the last few years, last buy was over 12 months ago, here,..
http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showpost.php?p=217720&postcount=179

I will just continue holding, and buying on dips. Patience. If it runs straight to $50 bucks, that's OK. If it dips first, that's good too and I'll own a few more.


Plus, I wonder what company the future fund would pile into the most? I've got an idea. BHP.

See ya's.

Well its on my watchlist. Hasn't dipped enough for me though as I am pretty lousy with how much I want to pay. I have a buy price I'd enter of $24.

BHP is a funny company. It is so diversified it can be bought as a proxy for a resources based mutual fund without paying a management fee. That's good for those who don't have the knowledge and time to select a suite of more specialised miners, and I'm learning from experience that that ain't easy.

Their biggest problem is their propensity to waste very large sums of money.

They were sub $25 twice in the last 12 months (called good value by more than just me on SS) but it's unreasonable to hope to get them at that price again. You may if they suffer a monumental setback but you prolly wouldn't buy then anyway. Buying the dips is not as easy as it sounds. There was a small one early in the week. Does one buy then? It was only 80c (if you bought the very bottom), not much in a $35 stock. They may go lower, there may have been good reason for the drop or was it just noise? You only know these things in hind sight. I dithered with CCL looking for an entry and missed $2 rise. MCR is another I like, found an entry but got shaken out. It has since doubled. Really, it's the sort of company you should never trade.

Have no doubt, BHP is a good stock. There is no bad time to buy, maybe some better than others. The oft quoted mantra on buying RE here applies. Buy when you can afford it!

Disclaimer: This is just my opinion, not advice. My dog doesn't even take notice of me.

I think BHP will go to $40 by November this year (2007). This comment in this thread will serve as a time capsule for if I'm wrong or right! I don't think there will be a dip lower then $30 in the not to distant future.

This is a monthly close price of BHP. They say property doubles in price every 7-10 years. BHP continues to go from strength to strength and with the strong demand in the resource sector I see no reason why it will not continue. "The Trend Is Your Friend".

Jun- 07 34.20
May-07 31.53
Apr- 07 29.51
Mar-07 29.89
26-Feb-07 $ 0.20 Dividend
Feb-07 27.13
Jan-07 25.86
Dec-06 25.13
Nov-06 26.05
Oct-06 27.09
4-Sep-06 $ 0.185 Dividend
Sep-06 25.45
Aug-06 27.32
Jul-06 27.39
Jun-06 28.61
May-06 27.85
Apr-06 28.90
Mar-06 27.62
27-Feb-06 $ 0.175 Dividend
Feb-06 23.92
Jan-06 25.27
Dec-05 22.28
Nov-05 21.42
Oct-05 20.32
Sep-05 21.79
Aug-05 20.04
Jul-05 18.96
Jun-05 17.78
May-05 16.34
Apr-05 15.71
Mar-05 17.50
28-Feb-05 $ 0.135 Dividend
Feb-05 18.75
Jan-05 15.82
Dec-04 14.92
Nov-04 15.02
Oct-04 13.47
Sep-04 13.96
Aug-04 12.77
Jul-04 12.81
Jun-04 12.18
May-04 11.76
Apr-04 11.15
Mar-04 11.92
Feb-04 11.92
Jan-04 10.98
Dec-03 11.85
Nov-03 10.96
Oct-03 11.40
Sep-03 10.27
Aug-03 10.63
Jul-03 9.53
Jun-03 8.40
May-03 8.36
Apr-03 8.79
Mar-03 9.02
Feb-03 8.90
Jan-03 8.67
Dec-02 9.87
Nov-02 9.84
Oct-02 9.42
Sep-02 8.80
Aug-02 8.86
Jul-02 9.27
Jun-02 10.01
May-02 10.50
Apr-02 10.50
Mar-02 11.08
Feb-02 11.46
Jan-02 10.96
Dec-01 10.21

That was some wait for return if you borrowed and bought @ $11.46 in Feb02.
It didn't make anything except negative interest payments until Dec03 when it finally made it to $11.85. Not to mention the margin call during Jan03 when the price dropped to $8.67.

I own a small amount. If I had the spare money I would keep buying on the dips as TC has done, or even just dollar cost averaging. For the foreseeable future I think they will be a one ticket to the sky.

BR

Just my dribble. Don't listen to a word of it.

I'd be interested in seeing a chart of BHP back to day dot; has it ever split?

PS: Why wait for BHP to drop before buying.... unless you think it will and if you think there's continual peaks and troughs (channeling)why not buy and sell on these

Jaffasoft said:

This is a monthly close price of BHP.

Click to expand...

With respect Jaffa, how can 5.5years data be pertinent? I'm looking at a chart on my other puter which starts at Jan '95. It drifts for a couple of years and then drops a third before it wakes up in early '99 (5.25 at the time) to where it is now (almost) X7 it's price then. You see, as I alluded to in my previous posts BHP (as is RIO!) are past masters at blowing billions out their ***. If you want to use the past as a guide to the future (dodgy at best) you should be plotting a proxy of the resource produce and overlaying BHP upon it.

I'm sorry but in my mind fundamentals rule. And the fundamentals of resource stocks lay in macro economics.

Don't sweat the small stuff!

redwing said:

I'd be interested in seeing a chart of BHP back to day dot; has it ever split?

Click to expand...

In the reasonably long time I've been watching, no.

redwing said:

PS: Why wait for BHP to drop before buying.... unless you think it will and if you think there's continual peaks and troughs (channeling)why not buy and sell on these

Click to expand...

See above. We mere mortals cannot know what tomorrow may bring.

Chartists tell you they can trade the swings, but chartists have been known to lie.

redwing said:

I'd be interested in seeing a chart of BHP back to day dot; has it ever split?

:

Click to expand...

I have owned BHP in the Onesteel spinoff and the Billiton merger. Forgot the details of the Onesteel spinoff, however with the Billiton merger, 1.06 free shares were issued per share, plus some BHP steel shares as well [now Bluescope]. So the share price more than halved, from roughly $18 back to less than $9. This happened in July 2001.

Generally the long term charts take these into account, or the ones I look at anyway. It gets a bit complicated working out the real return with all these things going on.

See ya's.

redwing said:

PS: Why wait for BHP to drop before buying.... unless you think it will and if you think there's continual peaks and troughs (channeling)why not buy and sell on these

Click to expand...

Why? If you believed in the resource super cycle, you would have bought up years ago I suppose, like I did. Anyone not owning BHP by now would think resource prices are a bubble, so BHP's massive profits not sustainable.

BHP are 30% of my share portfolio, so I have enough.

See ya's.

Brenda Irwin said:

That was some wait for return if you borrowed and bought @ $11.46 in Feb02.
It didn't make anything except negative interest payments until Dec03 when it finally made it to $11.85. Not to mention the margin call during Jan03 when the price dropped to $8.67.

Click to expand...

Brenda, those sorts of moves are the norm for BHP.

Dropped from $32 in May 06, to about $24, three times, June 06, Sept 06, and Jan 07.

Then in April 05, dropped from nearly $20, to about $16 in June 05.

Maybe you should avoid BHP if you think those moves are excessive.


The market must think BHP is risky, for those sorts of drops to occur. Yet look at the assets BHP own. How is it risky? The market must be right! Right?


Then the safest stock in the market is Woolworths? Yet they don't even own the land the supermarkets sit on, and they have hardly any net tangible assets.


A safe company is in the eye of the beholder. Not saying WOW is not safe, it is, they sell food for a huge markup. That's safe.

A safe stock to me is AAC. Agricultural land. But then, a nasty disease, and AAC would crash too. So maybe it's not real safe?

See ya's.

If BHP didn't split....what the heck happened back here --> Late 2003

I had heard that in the past BHP and Telstra continued to pay reasonable dividends even on poor performance due to the huge amount of Mum n Dad Investors ?

Nice chart though long term..

redwing said:

If BHP didn't split....what the heck happened back here --> Late 2003

..

Click to expand...

That big drop was the Billiton merger. It did happen in July 2001 though, but your chart seems to show it as almost 2002.

An investor in BHP got twice as many shares, but they were worth half as much, plus some Bluescopes chucked in as well. Basically, there was no real change in total value from one day to the next.

As I said, most charts take this into account, but the one you have shown doesn't.


Dividends? BHP has not paid much % dividend for a long time. That's OK by me, because they can do a lot more with the money than I could. I would prefer if they paid no dividend.

See ya's.

topcropper said:

I would prefer if they paid no dividend.

See ya's.

Click to expand...

There are an awful lot of self funded retirees who need divs though and I will join them soon enough. But how's this?

--BHP's AU$7 billion expansion of uranium and copper mining at Olympic
Dam near Roxby is set to create a hole "big enough to swallow
Adelaide's city centre," reports Andrew Trounson in today's Australian.
"The open pit will be more than 3.5km in diameter and 1km deep. Copper
production is expected to more than double to 500,000 tonnes a year
with a mine life of around 100 years. Uranium production is forecast to
treble to 15,000 tonnes."

--There are more than AU$7 billion in iron ore investments in Western
Australia, and AU$30 billion in energy and liquid natural gas
developments. There's coal, copper, and uranium in Queensland. Just
about everywhere you look in Australia, you'll find mineral deposits
the world wants. About the only thing in short supply is experienced
mine operators who know how to get the stuff out of the ground at a
profit.
.......................

I'm getting a little diversification (I still need more) through mine service companies. Imagine the contracts they will let out?

if you want bhp how about buying rio? they will probly take rio out at a premium and offer shares as exchange?

I just buy both when I can and hopefuly on small dips.

I am still underweight in them so still plenty of SANF left for me in BHP and RIO.

wish I had kept my coles now!! bigger wish... that I had learnt to buy and hold more and trade less!!! (says he that sold woolies at $3, nab at $9, bhp at... - arghh!)