2007 election 24 Nov

Hi all,

This thread is way off topic.

My intention when I started this thread was to gain insights from people around the country as to who they thought would win the election, and by how much.

Not who they would like to win.

It is really about separating the head (logic) from the heart (emotion), and my original thought was that some would find this simple task hard to do.

This has proven more than true, with all sorts of political gibberish pushing both sides.

Are any of you people who can write or quote reams of rubbish prepared to honestly say who you THINK will win and by how much??? I mean there is only 2 days to go, and the guesses/hunches are few and far between.

My head is still telling me a landslide by 23-25 seats to labour.

My heart is telling me that this is not a good thing.

bye
 
Hi Bill,

IMHO Labour is going to romp it in. Wether that's good or bad though - I guess we just wait and see.


I will personally be interested to see the outcome in WA - particularly in relevance to the AWA's which have been around for quite a while here.

ciao

Nor
 
Bill.L said:
My head is still telling me a landslide by 23-25 seats to labour.
Click to expand...
Bill,What the public want is one thing ,what they will get under Labor will be something different,at the end of the day I still think Mr Howard will win the media-spinners can run all the set-up polls they want they mean nothing,I have meet Mr Rudd and he has a handshake like a wet rag and i also watched him yesterday on the TV,he still can't answer the important questions-interest rates-petrol pump price-low cost housing and the price of one simple item food,he said yesterday he makes 'no promises' on anything:rolleyes:..willair..
 
Hi Willair,

I understand where you are coming from with the politics of it all, however I don't think what you are saying is the general perception.

For example, the other day there was a forum of the different candidates here in Colac where the pollies were going to discuss local issues (the duplication of the Princes Hwy west of Geelong to Colac is a big issue and neither major party is giving a promise to fully fund this section of it).

Only 12 people bothered to turn up to hear them.
This seat is regarded as one of the marginals because of new electoral boundaries and the 5.3% margin that the incumbent currently has (liberal).

This type of turn-up tends to tell me that people have already made up their minds which way they will vote and that the polls may be accurate on this occasion.

bye
 
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I think labour will romp it in.

Kevin knows exactly what to say to con most people. He speaks well, and as Willair says, he doesn't say exactly how he is going to do what he says, he is just going to do it. Fix everything up, spend all the money, and fix up the economy.

Inflation is going to go crazy I think. Peter Garrett, a gagged greeny will be showing all us farmers how it's done. Great stuff! Can't wait.


No one has any idea how good this country has had things for a decade, and we are all about to find out.

See ya's.
 
topcropper said:
.......

Kevin knows exactly what to say to con most people.
....................
See ya's.
Click to expand...

Exactly my thoughts. Very smart and calculating - knows what to say. I hope we don't go down that route as I don't think most know what they will really get as a govt.
 
Bill.L said:
I understand where you are coming from with the politics of it all, however I don't think what you are saying is the general perception.
Click to expand...
Bill,I know what are saying is maybe right,most voters don't look too far down the track,but i think what Mr Rudd still has no idea about is Middle-Australia and the way this group of voters will vote,this group of people still are a powerfull force,I just hope that this group of voters pulls Mr Howard over the line..willair..
 
I think it's still too close to call - but I can't see a Labor landslide: they need 16 seats just to win government.

Cheers
LynnH
 
LynnH said:
I think it's still too close to call - but I can't see a Labor landslide: they need 16 seats just to win government.

Cheers
LynnH
Click to expand...

can't agree more.. in fact, I'm put my money on where my mouth is and going to put $100 on Coalition to win.. paying $4.10, what a value!!
 
Noticed several people wearing Kevin07 shirts about. Is it just me or does anyone else find political shirts (unless its party helpers on polling day) offensive & in poor taste ?
 
Gotta admit, at $4.10, its pretty good value.

When I went to vote last time, instead of seeing a line of outraged citizens, all I saw was a long line of mortgage holders. And I think, despite all the polls, in the cold face of reality, people were still scared of the ALP alternative, and their hip pockets.

Could still be the same outcome this time.

Personally, I still think it wont be enough to save Howard.
 
Bill.L;351119 My head is still telling me a landslide by 23-25 seats to labour. My heart is telling me that this is not a good thing. bye[/QUOTE said:
************************
Hi Bill

1. Both Kevin and John believes the outcome to be a close one at this point in time.

2. Tommorrow will be a better time to seriously reflect on/assess this issue when no more public campaigning is allowed, so that we hear no more new noises but the same voice within each one of ourselves.

3. Personally, I doubt Kevin Rudd and his ALP are likely to win by the big margin as you have suggested above.

4. As in the past elections, John Howard and his Liberal Coalition may poll a different outcome from what the many of the pre-elections polls used to show, as in the past.

Cheers,
Kenneth KOH
Click to expand...
 
I think its going to be labour by around 10-12 seats. I think the liberals have finally run out of steam and haven't been thrown a Tampa this time to get them out of gaol.

I'm with Bill though in that I'm not sure a change of government will be a good thing for Australia, but I do think it is going to happen.

Interesting times ahead...

Cheers,
Michael.
 
Hi all,

$4.10 for the libs!!

I like good odds in any 2 horse race, where can I get those odds?? please feihong??

Just because I think a certain event will happen, it does not hurt to have a couple of bob each way.

bye
 
Bill.L said:
Hi all,

$4.10 for the libs!!

I like good odds in any 2 horse race, where can I get those odds?? please feihong??

Just because I think a certain event will happen, it does not hurt to have a couple of bob each way.

bye
Click to expand...

Hi Bill, this will please you.. on betfair exchange, it quotes 1.24 to back Labour, and 5 to back Liberal. Take away 5% commission charged by Betfair and you'll get 4.80
 
For those who could be bothered .....

An interesting article in today's AFR (page 75) by John Black (who runs demographic polling firm, Australian Development Strategies, and who is a former Labor Senator. He believes that "a nail-biter is the likely scenario".

He suggests logging onto the Australian Electoral Commission website on Saturday evening when polling has closed and going to their virtual tally room. He says to look up Bennelong (Howard) and Wentworth (Turnbull), and when the first booth results come in, to check them against the 2004 results in the same booths.

He outlines 3 possible scenarios:

1. If Howard is winning Bennelong comfortably after you've checked half-a-dozen booths, then check Wentworth - if you see the same result there, the Government could be back in, given what's likely to happen elsewhere.

2. If Howard and Turnbull have lost easily, Rudd will be PM - and it will be a "bloodbath".

3. If Bennelong and Wentworth are close after all booth results are in & it's down to counting postal & absentee etc, then "you should stay watching the web page until the last vote is counted in WA - because Rudd could be PM at 9 p.m. eastern daylight saving time and opposition leader again by midnight, if he loses seats in WA".

Interesting .....

Cheers
LynnH
 
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betting market update

Latest market report:

market is now 5.1 for coalition, 1.24 for Labour (1.25 offered on Centrebet). Not sure if the odd for Coalition will continue to drift but won't drift too much further from 5.1 I reckon, so might a good time to get in. (All odds are courtesy of betfair)
 
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