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You know what they say about assuming, don't you TF? ;) If you had actually read that thread you would see that I don't expect the next phase of strong growth to begin until 2010-2011, leading to a boom around 2014-2015. Yes, 2010-2011. How many times do I need to repeat it? Do you have some...

No, apparently that's not a requirement of the esteemed University of Western Sydney.

And where exactly is the 'in 6 months time' part? Seriously TF, are you going all out to misrepresent the truth? Do you need me to remind you which part of your strawman argument I was refuting? You know very well that I don't expect the next surge in property prices until 2010-2011. Lending...

Keen is not getting any younger either. Doubtful if he will even be around in 15 years to witness this Nirvana. And if he is, I expect the senility will be even worse... hopefully that won't prevent him making it up to full professor rank though.

What are your thoughts on the following analysis by Keen? Do you reckon he has a strong argument here? I know you realise the Demographia survey is flawed yourself, so I guess you must believe his other argument is the clincher - i.e. that we will have a 40% fall because Japan had one? So...

The Demographia survey has been thoroughly debunked. There are massive flaws in that survey. It uses a very basic measure of 'affordability' - i.e. median house price to median income. This is a very blunt tool. Demographia compares house price to income ratios across various countries, however...

No, he definitely specified 40%. And here is an excellent example of Keen's infallible logic. When asked to explain why he thought house prices in Australia would fall by 40%, he gave this response... So prices in Japan fell by 42%, therefore that sounds 'about right' for Australia too, but it...

Japan is a great example of a country where supply of housing really does exceed demand. Japan's population is shrinking, which tends to cause an oversupply of housing over time. The Australian population on the other hand is growing at a rate of 1.84% per annum - the highest rate in the...

I've always argued that they won't fall 40%. :D Wonder how Ed Karan is going these days? Only 9 months to go for the remaining 37% fall. That's if his '40% correction by end 2009' prediction is to come true. I think most people here accept that property values can rise or fall over the short...

Haven't you just answered your own question there? Supply of property IS constrained. Construction costs ARE up. Government taxes ARE high. Another key point is the emotional attachment caused by the uniqueness and individuality of housing. Most houses have certain unique features or attributes...

Hi nonrecourse, I posted this question to you in another thread, but you may have missed it... You have said that you expect the 'soft depression' to exhibit the following attributes: - Unemployment to remain a reasonably low levels - Very low interest rates - Increasing rents If...