This property cycle is turning out to be different to previous property cycles.

[arashi87]

Quoted from Michael Yardney

"It is likely be shorter and not as wide spread ? not all locations and not all properties will benefit?so this is not the time to sit back and passively let things happen."

What do you guys think on the above statement? Where are we exactly at the moment of the property cycle (11-12o'clock?)

 

[D.T.]

Which suburb are you referring to? They're all different.

 

[arashi87]

oh forgot to mention: its Sydney im referring to

 

[LeoT]

I reckon Sydney (in general, I know it wont apply to the whole of Sydney) is probably at the 11oclock mark.

To be honest I don't care where its at now, I only cared when I bought/developed 2 years back Now I'm enjoying the cycle.

 

[Ed Barton]

I'd much rather use a sun dial.

 

[Propertunity]

"It is likely be shorter and not as wide spread ? not all locations and not all properties will benefit?

This cycle is the same as every other cycle IMO, and as with all other cycles, "not all locations and not all properties will benefit". It's usually that way I've found.

....so this is not the time to sit back and passively let things happen."

This sounds like the typical rhetoric of someone trying to sell their services, as some guru who can provide advice on where the best places to buy are found.

Has there ever been a time to "sit back and passively let things happen"?

 

[arashi87]

Property cycle bottomed in the middle of 2012 for Sydney, i haven't got any data to prove this but from memory it was pretty low priced in most suburbs.


And assuming prices in Sydney will +10%-15% further in 2015 before it stagnant and drop... from 6'oclock to 12o'clock it only took 3 years, is that what we usually expect? 7-10years = a full cycle , thus 3 years boom, 1 year stable, 3 years drop, 1 year stable?

 

[LeoT]

" Has there ever been a time to "sit back and passively let things happen?"

exactly. Ironically, most of the population have that attitude of "sit back and let things happen in life". Poor buggers. Wont know what hit em at retirement age.

 

[MTR]

MY - its all sales/marketing, the Syd market has been moving for last 2 years, what's he on about, perhaps he just realised

 

[Propertunity]

Property cycle bottomed in the middle of 2012 for Sydney, i haven't got any data to prove this but from memory it was pretty low priced in most suburbs.

Sydney is comprised of many markets and markets within those markets, so you can't just lump them all together and get much sense out of it.

However, attached is the last 15yrs CG for Marrickville LGA to use as an example of what you might typically expect as growth over a full cycle. The blue line is the moving median indicating CG. Up, flat, up, flat (where flat is slightly rising/falling) - repeated over and over.

Cheers,
Alan

 

[LeoT]

That chart is better than a hottie in a centrefold magazine,

 

[Propertunity]

That chart is better than a hottie in a centrefold magazine,

Well you can't be unhappy (as an investor) if you were brave enough to purchase mid-GFC as you'd be sitting on nearly 50% growth since 2009 to present day.

 

[MTR]

Well you can't be unhappy (as an investor) if you were brave enough to purchase mid-GFC as you'd be sitting on nearly 50% growth since 2009 to present day.

Absolutely
Marrickville gets a mention on SS often, its one of those gem areas that has had a dream run.

 

[arashi87]

Sydney is comprised of many markets and markets within those markets, so you can't just lump them all together and get much sense out of it.

Cheers,
Alan

Are you saying every suburbs in Sydney has its own cycles? ... damn more studies needed...

btw:where did you get that chart?

 

[Richard Feynman]

Absolutely
Marrickville gets a mention on SS often, its one of those gem areas that has had a dream run.

Plenty left too, I reckon.

 

[Propertunity]

Are you saying every suburbs in Sydney has its own cycles?

Yes, that's what I'm saying.

btw:where did you get that chart?

Secret buyers agent's business

APM Pricefinder - subscription only

 

[knightm]

Yes, that's what I'm saying.

Secret buyers agent's business

APM Pricefinder - subscription only

:0) So the three letter acronym (TLA) would be (SBAB) for that secret business? - edit: except its got 4!

Alan is right every sub market moves a little differently.

Regarding MY's initial quote:

1 He is a genuine property investor
2 He is a skilled business man
3 His comments in the media and public space are designed to build his business.
4 He is very skilled at promoting his own patch, has been for yrs.
5 For many of his clients inner city investing is probably the best option
6 I do investing a little differently
7 I also value cash-flow as an important part of the equation

There are numerous old threads about it. Here is one. In it I refer to several others as well.

 

[arashi87]

:0) So the three letter acronym (TLA) would be (SBAB) for that secret business? - edit: except its got 4!

Alan is right every sub market moves a little differently.

Regarding MY's initial quote:

1 He is a genuine property investor
2 He is a skilled business man
3 His comments in the media and public space are designed to build his business.
4 He is very skilled at promoting his own patch, has been for yrs.
5 For many of his clients inner city investing is probably the best option
6 I do investing a little differently
7 I also value cash-flow as an important part of the equation

There are numerous old threads about it. Here is one. In it I refer to several others as well.

thank you for your info!

 

[C-mac]

Love APM Price finder! Good to see it get a mention here.