Recent content by keithj

  1. K

    I'm calling it... 2015 is the peak

    I'm not sure why you're mentioning Short Term issues when you've made a Long Term prediction :confused: Re 2) Should this be in the L/T list below ? If so, then your comment on unemployment being in a long term upward trend is interesting. You will be aware that the number of jobs is...
  2. K

    Somersoft Goodbye Thread

    Brilliant.... I have a similar chart - except one of the lines is inverted & labeled slightly differently :D Regardless, best of luck with all your endeavors :)
  3. K

    Poor first home buyers Sydney

    Back in 2008 we had this debate. Me & the RBA thought your metric was rubbish then, and we still think it's garbage now. BTW since yesterday another 350 FHB families were able to afford a home :D... so that's me, the RBA and another 8000 families since May reckon housing is still affordable...
  4. K

    Poor first home buyers Sydney

    Every day another 400 families can afford to buy a 1st home. Housing remains affordable - when it stops being affordable, people will stop buying & price will stop rising. Based on the trend of the last 25 yrs do you think it will be any time soon ? That's why we here. Your affordability...
  5. K

    Poor first home buyers Sydney

    The ABS graph for the last 25 yrs clearly shows 7-8000 FHBers being able to afford a house every month. That's about a sample size of over 1,000,000 families. Surely that is sufficient to convince you that affordability is pretty much the same as 25 yrs ago.
  6. K

    Poor first home buyers Sydney

    Last month 7000 families didn't care much about that. The month before 8000 FHBers didn't care about that hypothetical point either. Back in Jan there were another 8000 FHBers that overcame adversity & saved for a deposit. 8000 FHBers for every month of 2014 didn't think it was a biggie...
  7. K

    Poor first home buyers Sydney

    Oh no it doesn't..... ....this chart tells the real story.... (sourced from ABS) It shows the actual number of FHBers each month for a couple of decades. These are actual people buying real houses. Every month 7 or 8 thousand FHBers actually stop spending $$$ on 'stuff' and buy a house...
  8. K

    Anyone remember the days before the property boom?

    Sounds as though desirable real estate has always been expensive for all of your lifetime.
  9. K

    Facing a war

    Here's 300 acres of mostly level bushland for ~$1000/acre in Lithgow region (approx 150km from Sydney). It's is close enough to get there in a hurry, but far enough away from the remaining 4 million Sydneysiders who may or may not have ebola or are about to be nuked, or expecting mass...
  10. K

    I'm calling it... 2015 is the peak

    Can you summarise what these keys fundamentals will be ?
  11. K

    Average Wage vs Median Price

    I'm not sure wages will ever catch up. Mostly because Average Wage vs Median Price is a crap ratio that the media/pollies continue to use. It completely ignores the fact that the vast majority of non-FHB have a massive deposit (often > 50%) to put down against their 2nd purchase. This deposit...
  12. K

    Share your "but this time it's different" stories

    A few things that may cause a crash - IRs rising to 7% - however current thinking is that low IRs is the 'new normal' - (especially in Oz for the medium term IMO) Unemployment continuing to rise q/q - however todays (surprise) was an improvement to 6.0% (but could easily change) GDP -ve for...
  13. K

    Facing a war

    There's many unlikely events that have low probability of occurring (but non-zero) & are completely out of our control... mostly not worth worrying about unless you have excess spare cash. Epedemic isn't top of the Doomsday scenarios list though. I once considered buying a cheap 1000 acres...
  14. K

    Does Brisbane still stack up?

    Do you have the 'numbers' for the 2 or 3 years prior to the last boom in Bris ? (the one that finished in 2003/4). Are there are any similarities or differences between then & now ? Do you feel the numbers will preempt the upswing ? or are the numbers always going to be a lagging indicator...
  15. K

    Poor first home buyers Sydney

    Are you suggesting that the govt should legislate to prevent the current generation spending $$$ on cheap flights/iPhones and instead start saving to buy a roof over their head ? Because if you want to make things just like they were in previous generations, that would be a great policy.... :D
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