Recent content by Shadow

  1. Shadow

    All-time funniest Somersoft threads

    MBL was always good for a laugh, until he was banned. He was an uber-bear who posted on Somersoft in 2007. I archived some of his classic lines here... http://somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=33720 I sometimes wonder what ever became of him. :confused:
  2. Shadow

    Words of Wisdom

    I wonder what ever happened to MBL, and some of the other old bears like YieldMatters, NonRecourse and Token Funder. They all just vanished when their bearish predictions failed to eventuate.
  3. Shadow

    See Change and Richard Feynman . let's hype the sydney market thread .

    I'm not seeing any sign of this boom ending in Sydney. Auction clearance rates still above 80%, housing finance rising, vacancy rates below 2%, and Sydney has less stock on the market than Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth or Adelaide. Supply is incredibly tight. Tightest in recorded history actually...
  4. Shadow

    I'm calling it... 2015 is the peak

    So we're half way through 2015 now, and I'm not seeing any sign of this boom ending, at least not in Sydney. Auction clearance rates still above 80%, housing finance rising, vacancy rates below 2%, and Sydney has less stock on the market than Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth or Adelaide. Supply in...
  5. Shadow

    Will Australia's next property boom be the greatest boom we've ever seen?

    I think buying a PPOR with a long-term mindset now would still be an OK decision, because even after this boom ends, and Sydney prices correct, they probably won't fall below current levels. However I think buying an IP now would be pointless as there is limited scope for significant capital...
  6. Shadow

    We're building towards a home construction boom

    BIS Shrapnel predicting a fall in Sydney house prices from next as the construction boom leads to over-supply... http://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/bis-shrapnel-report-reveals-property-prices-to-fall/story-fncq3era-1227416605503 'The supply side of the equation will still have an...
  7. Shadow

    Perth houses are currently as affordable as they were in 2003 and 1996

    I just decided not to hotlink them as they take up so much screen space.
  8. Shadow

    Will the Sydney median house price reach $1 million by the end of 2015?

    May 2015 results just in. Sydney median house price has now reached $961,000. http://blog.residex.com.au/2015/06/24/market-update Only another $39K to go, over the following 7 months, to reach $1 million this year.
  9. Shadow

    Australian Property Chart of Shame - Epic Failure of The Australian Property Bears

    I see a qualification there from Joye... i.e. there will be a serious crash IF something else happens first. I can't disagree with that... if Australia ever develops a large enough housing bubble, then there will be a serious crash. But with national house prices having simply tracked income...
  10. Shadow

    Australian Property Chart of Shame - Epic Failure of The Australian Property Bears

    Yeah, like I have time to trawl through my 20,000+ posts across Somersoft, S&S, APF, CC and the G.HPC archive in order to convince you. In any case, my magnum opus is the $1M Sydney median by 2015, with accompanying construction boom. That's worth at least 100 normal predictions. :) Anyway...
  11. Shadow

    Australian Property Chart of Shame - Epic Failure of The Australian Property Bears

    According to that data, the SVR has ranged from 1.01% above my 5.59% fixed rate to 0.06%-0.33% below - i.e. during the time the SVR was below the fixed rate, it was below by an insignificant amount, whereas the time spent above was by a much larger margin. I also fixed some loans at 5.39% and...
  12. Shadow

    Australian Property Chart of Shame - Epic Failure of The Australian Property Bears

    To summarise those quotes, since 2007 I've predicted a Sydney boom, with a target value around $1M - $1.25M and a target date around 2014-2015. I've stuck to this range for eight years... http://somersoft.com/forums/showpost.php?p=362845&postcount=1 You can see my 2007 chart above has Sydney...
  13. Shadow

    Australian Property Chart of Shame - Epic Failure of The Australian Property Bears

    Oops, it was a bit large. Have posted a smaller version! :)
  14. Shadow

    Australian Property Chart of Shame - Epic Failure of The Australian Property Bears

    Probably my last thread on Somersoft, with the imminent closure of the forum, so I thought I'd finish off with a little chart that illustrates just how badly the property bears have failed over the past decade or so. Clearly the investors here on Somersoft were miles ahead of the housing bears...
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