Recent content by Tehanu

*Cough* well it looks like I was wrong about the imminent Greek default. Up until then my belief was that Germany would be the first country to leave the Eurozone (it is the strong outer regions that can survive on their own that break away first, not the weak ones), but in the month or so...

Oh I don't mean the mining tax would actually be the main cause of any dropped investment. I agree with you that in the end the main driver of any decision will be commodity prices. However if it occurs at around the same time as the mining tax the media and Abbott will blame the mining tax...

The big miners are being pressured by shareholders to cut their investment spending because of weakening commodity prices and cost blow-outs (labour, material and power): http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/12/miners-agms-idUSL6E8FC7I320120412 On the bright side of things, management...

The UK banks are *also* ignoring their central bank and setting rates themselves and the Irish banks are ignoring the ECB and they using the same reasoning as ANZ. There's also the same calls for political action, and complaints from borrowers as here. Though I would say the level of...

I wouldn't go that far myself...A falling Australian property market isn't going to be good for the banks.

The ANZ whinge about their increased funding costs all over their annual report. If they are lying about it the ANZ CEO has a lot more things to worry about then an ACCC fine - like being banned from being a company director for years. They're not that stupid. Also they have no incentive to...

Yes they do have access to the funding mix. http://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2011/mar/6.html They have it disaggregated into major bank, regional bank and foreign banks at least. I strongly suspect they have it by individual bank.

(1) I believe they already report this to the RBA and it sounds like the RBA is supporting them. http://www.news.com.au/business/breaking-news/bank-funding-costs-under-pressure-rba/story-e6frfkur-1226306907754 Besides the divergence between the true cost of credit and central bank interest...

(1) At the point this sort of thing occurs housing market activity is basically dead anyway. (2) At this point governments will have much more urgent short-term priorities such as bond vigilantes (and in Ireland's case the Troika) who demand austerity. Hell, Australia is already going along...

The crash has already started in my opinion. However the removal of NG is still a whiles away. Prices haven't fallen enough and the government isn't desperate enough for tax revenue yet.

NG will most likely end once house prices have crashed. The economy will be in such bad condition that governments will be desperate for tax revenue. Property will be one source as the Irish and American experience shows. One reason why NG will be singled out is that NG only affects...

Electricity use is related to economic activity. Economic slowdown -> lower electricity use. Possibly contradicting myself though - What it looks like is volumes of thermal coal exports to Asia did not go down during the GFC. Thermal coal exports to Europe plunged though. The total thermal...

Actually it's worse than it seems at first glance. Why? Take a look at what Australia's biggest export markets are...

The small amount is net over all exposures. The actual gross amount of Greek CDS out there is $70 billion. http://www.efxnews.com/story/10687/gross-greek-cds-volumes-counterparty-risk-worth-watching A lot of places are almost fully hedged - that is they bought almost as much Greek CDS as...

Wrote something but then got some new information that may change my opinion. Will try to digest and get back later.