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You and every fund manager on the planet :( The grind down continues...

Oldest lad was the proverbial headache at school. Barely 2 years highschool and then lived on the streets for 3 years. Managed to get him into a mechanics apprenticeship at Hunter Holden in Sydney. He lasted 2 1/2 years before pulling the pin. $6.30/hr starting wage and by the time he dumped it...

Absolutely. Higher education gives you options that don't have income ceilings. You can be a CEO if you have the drive and stamina or push a broom if you wish. But without higher education your only option out of income limitation is self employment and the failure rate is high 80%+. Success...

Banks sell the same derivative many times over. If it falls over you may have hundreds of counterparties to pay. In the normal world the losses aren't big enough to cause a system problem when something major comes along then a problem can blow out to astronomical proportions. AIG for example...

Derivatives are a circle jerk. Banks sell and trade derivatives while they also use derivatives to hedge each other. AIG went tits up because it couldn't cover its position. When things go south there's no way a broke bank can cover a broke bank hence the last GFC. No one knew who was cashed...

That's not the rate of lending but what is currently on the loan book. The rate of lending (investment) is around 48% currently. The risk here is that a sentiment change in such a large proportion of the buying market would have a fairly substantial impact on prices.

Investor growth continues as a share of total lending and to be expected a share of the total book value. $1.315T of debt on bank books is troubling. Throw in $15T in derivatives and things look even more worrying. But then there's the punters out there that keep echoing the govt/banking BS...

Another Bumper Month For Home Loans By Martin North | January 30, 2015 | Economics and Banking APRA just released their monthly banking statistics, which provides a view of lending and deposit portfolios from the banks (ADI?s). Overall home lending by the banks rose $9.12 billion to $1.315...

Interesting. In the space of 10 days 20 Jan - 30 Jan the odds of a cut went from 18% to 67%. That's a fairly radical shift in thinking. My guess is the SNB unpegging from the Euro and the Greek election has rattled a few in the game. I was reading an article the other day that suggested...

Only if you've been in the game for 10 or more years. And what do they have to do with Keens predictions? Who's cashed up? My guess is that less 1% of PI's are actually living the dream with their feet up sipping a raspberry and coke. Headline major city rises (nominal) look good but...

Agh. Makes sense now. debating with a teenager. :rolleyes:

They were going down the gurgler until stimulus kicked in. Add a few trillion from China and kaboom you have an artificial property boom. Hasn't been too good of late though so given all those speculators who are sitting on paper profits, well they may not yet get to cash in on that little boom...

You keep saying this with nothing to back it. AU threw a 4% (of GDP) stimulus package at the GFC. Largest in the developed world. I don't care if he was right or wrong. It's irrelevant. I still contend his predictions were reasonable for the conditions at the time. Prices started to crash...

Hardly:rolleyes:

You are correct, however, the first package was simply a teaser which would hardly rate as stimulus these days. The 2008 budget was $316billion. The real stimulus didn't come until Feb 09. First stimulus In October 2008, the Rudd government implemented a A$10 billion stimulus package...

Keen made his bet mid Nov 08. Labour announced their fiscal stimulus package Feb 09.

I've been buying out of China for the last 12 months or so for a personal project. Some stuff I've bought and then had a design change has prompted me to resell those items. When I go back to the shopping sites to see what I paid I find the Chinese have bumped their USD prices by as much as 25%...

The problem I see with PI's in general is that given property is seen as a long term play investors tend to stay in the game whatever comes. Turnover costs simply add to the burden and dissuade PI's from acting when they might in alternative investment areas. Shares they drop like a hot spud...

From what I can tell the Keen's of this world aren't really into personal wealth. I tend to think he's more into personal academic credibility and inventing/discovering/understanding, in his case, economics. He's a frenetic rooster and if born today they'd be shoving ritalin down his throat by...

No but I changed my plans for the day.. if we scaled it then we're in the same ball park. The reality is we all look at the world from our personal view, interpret it, try and figure out what's likely to happen next and act according to our own conclusions. Part of that assessment is...