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  1. boz

    Aussie CAD

    wonder how the treasury measure the gross saving in table 1? probably if you have a 10% home price rise and you don't spend that money it is considered a 10% savings...:rolleyes:
  2. boz

    Housing Commitments vs Std Variable Interest Rate

    I think global economy condition must be considered, my view is that the up and down in rates and commitment we have seen in the last 2 year is probably likely to continue in the future, relaation to local rates will have less impact then untill few years ago. This is a consequence of US...
  3. boz

    Are credit conditions easing?

    I like Trichet, I think it is good that he follow the the mandate that is not about economy growth but about stability and inflation. I don't see how the US Japan and other major economy superstimulation is having long lasting effect. The only thing I see as consequence of stimulation is...
  4. boz

    Are credit conditions easing?

    Good luck with that! If things are all good and business as usual RBA will keep control. If things turn around and things are not rosy RBA and Australia with its borrowers will have to pay a premium to keep economy stable and money keep coming into the country, RBA will have little control on...
  5. boz

    The US is Bankrupt

    If you look at the middle of debt clock page you get: Total personal debt (at 16.252 tril$) Mortgage debt ( at 13.836 tril$) Consumer debt (at 2.416 tril$) Credit Card debt (at 818.1 tril$) personal debt per citizen at 52,411$, funny that that number is very much similar to Australia infact...
  6. boz

    The US is Bankrupt

    HI ww, are you sure about the chart showing US total debt balance at just 11.7 tril$? I thought was much higher then that (as you can see from the debt clock ) I also have a better chart that put together existing home sales and new homesales, would be good to have a chart like that for australia
  7. boz

    Overdose

    THere are a lot of things government can do then spending money, for example a change of tax system can be of great incentive to export and great drop in consumption (like rising gst and drop income/business tax), also one of the thing that I was surprise didn't emerge in the GFC was trade...
  8. boz

    Overdose

    you can't have a clear answer, depend also how government and central banks react, it also depend how money flow will be effected. On very important factor that you never hear is about australia influx of money. Looking at following chart I thought during the GFC it would reverse (for first...
  9. boz

    Overdose

    The main thing kept australia from living beyond his mean is the big resource this country is full of. While resource price are high Australia can afford bubbles and high living standard. Default is not often a good solution. Country like UK don't have net external debt so a government default...
  10. boz

    Housing Finance Commitments Up Strongly

    I think from those figures you wouldn't expect any house price drop, but it might be a lagging indicator as it takes time to settle a home sale and get the loan. I was expecting a lower housing credit figure
  11. boz

    Japan's national debt

    , all is relative, I don't think banks in Japan are cashed up, they have been struggling for the last 20 years, their problem is that assets on japanese banks books are losing value, so where are they going to find money to pay interest to japanese banks account? if they increase lending...
  12. boz

    Japan's national debt

    yes, but usually when you lend money you get something to guarantee the debt. You might end up with Germany and japan to own US homes and business as result of default. So, they'll get something in their hands. You already get this scenario in Australia where company like RIO are much more owned...
  13. boz

    Glen Stevens sees something most don't?

    he is freaking out, he knows that credit expansion peaked and we are entering in a dark room where he has not much power. He try to comunicate something but he doesn't want to effect sentiment. Pretty much the message is: things will get hard from now on, but don't worried that everything is...
  14. boz

    Australian balance of trade back in surplus

    It is better to measure the current account deficit comparing it to GDP, for example NZ was much worse then Australia for the last few years. Also it is better to look at not just last data as account depends a lot of temporary factors, for example high commodity prices effect positively...
  15. boz

    are our banks all doomed?

    If you want to win with inflation our way you need a fixed interest rate, then you screw the banks lender that got a fix interest, if we get high inflation banks won't lend you cheap, also if we get higher inflation I am not going to leave my money in banks at lower interest then inflation...
  16. boz

    Australian balance of trade back in surplus

    yes, but also a drop in the AU$ would effect the income account and even on how much debt is in AU$ or US$ effect the income account, gdp growth and population numbers effect the income account. But in the long term the trade numbers are the one that form the net foreign debt and the current...
  17. boz

    Australian balance of trade back in surplus

    The oecd account has been negative as I presume most of non OECD countries do a lot of export like in mining and oil. If you want to play with charts I attach also the trade data (which I believe it is more meaningful as with account data you get lots of short term factor like exchange rate and...
  18. boz

    Australian balance of trade back in surplus

    here you go, I thought NZ and Iceland where the worse but Australia is a good match. Well Portugal and Greece had pretty bad numbers but the data is not going backto 1990 like For most country. Spain and USA like AUS and NZ are the main one that has all the way negative data (but at least...
  19. boz

    Australian balance of trade back in surplus

    THe current account data come out every quarter and the last one for the 1st quarter was out last monday at a quite big negative number of -16.6 bil$ (-18.5 bil$ the quarter before that). Chances to have a positive account are zero. Australia didn't have one single positive quarter in the last...
  20. boz

    Australian balance of trade back in surplus

    The trade surplus come as no surprise as In April Iron ore price reset, 2 years ago we had surplus too starting from April, last year we had a drop starting from April, this year another surplus, the differece this time is that contract are only valid for 3 months and iron ore like copper and...
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