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Wow, is that a tautology? When is a bubble not hugely overpriced (in retrospect) ? It's like saying I want "more perfect...". A bubble is actually very hard to see except in retrospect, after it has blown up. Then it's very easy to see. I guess property in Australia may fit into that...

Yes, that it true and hard to do. I have to say I am a stinker at buying individual shares. My return would have been much better if I had stuck to indexes and market timing. Periodically I get tempted to buy an individual share, fortunately I have been able to restrain myself for a while now. I...

Yes, there is an asymetry there that expenses are deducted at the full rate and CGT at the 50% rate for holding periods over 1 year. This is offset by inflation in the case of property where frictional costs encourage holding periods over 5 years. The current tax regime to me really...

Handouts are appreciated initially, then expected. That's where the sense of entitlement comes from. It's universally human to be self interested. Beyond anyone's particular situation, I like the idea of equality. Income from any source should be taxed at the same rate, whether capital or...

I have a house and a few IP's and I also have my own business. I did once work as an employee and I think the tax treatment they get is really quite unfair. I do find pensioners annoying when they ask for a discount and obviously are not at all poor or needing it. I ran into a woman I know...

Yes, that's why I said rort. A worldwide rort. In australia, if your holding period is one year and one day you pay half the tax without erosion from inflation. This favours the wealthy, and investments with low frictional costs (eg.shares). If you structure your investments carefully you could...

the biggest rort at the moment is the preferential taxation of capital gains which is half the rate of income. Bad luck if you're a PAYG lemming. Next after this is the tax free status of super after retirement. Neither of these is sustainable in the long term. All the other handouts are just...

"However i strongly disagree with his suggestion to short gold." I don't think he is advocating shorting gold at this level, but it is interesting to think of that possibility in the future. Many people have gotten into the gold boat and when everyone is eventually in... "Disagree about...

This is very interesting, I guess if you are interested in individual stocks, you are thinking of the dividends you are foregoing by going into cash. The alternate viewpoint is that you may be able to buy 10 or 20% more of the stock and the related dividend with your cash later. I came by...

there is very little actual analysis in this thread. What is the mechanism of action? The transmission mechanism. To me it hinges around unemployment. Obviously there has been no significant correction in prices here because unemployment has remained low. People will not sell at a...

Wobblycarl, say the place had structural problems and your bid at 500k had been accepted. This is crazy. The auction process is structured to massively favour the vendor in real estate auctions. It is more cost effective in a warm/hot market where buyers are keen to not miss out...

You have to be able to read yourself. Maximise worry that changes the outcome and let go of worry that doesn't change the outcome. For me, when I'm nervous I think it's probably too late to sell. It's probably a good time to buy when I'm panicking and puking in the wastepaper basket. The best...

After a long think over last weekend, I put my super into cash on monday. It will be interesting to seewhat pans out in the new year, but I'm happy to forego the return and sit on the sidelines. From my perspective, the Australian index is slightly above fair value and the US market is very...

Hi Aaron, I was thinking of what might happen after the deflationary effect and possible unintended consequences. I guess I am not buying it at $13 at the moment. However, there is not an insignifcant risk of inflation in 2-3 years time with the bailout response, although everyone at the moment...

Thanks for clarifying what you meant by scaling out of positions. That makes a lot more sense. I've become a big fan of Kostorhyz's articles recently, he has a very systematic way of looking at things. His recent articles about a Santa rally I found were quite interesting, even though the...

thanks for your replies IV, I think you have thought out your strategy very well, but there is an internal contradiction with respect to being long in a secular bear market. You are right that it is in some ways safer to be long than short. In that case, should you not be scaling your positions...

Hi IV, I don't know why you get so worked up by sunfish. What's the point. I think this is a great read: http://seekingalpha.com/article/311671-a-week-of-historic-economic-tragedy-ahead http://seekingalpha.com/article/311630-europe-may-fail-due-to-sovereignty-issues The comments are great...

anyway back to topic IV, love your posts. Goldfish I like too (but not quite as much as fewer actionable facts). Anyway, back to topic. Right now I am waiting for more announcements of intervention, a Christmas rally and a good shorting entry point. I don't think I'd buy gold in much scale...

It really depends on your personal preferences. No one can predict the future. Are house prices in Australia overvalued? To me they are, but who knows, they could go up further for another decade. We haven't had a recession for 20 years but history suggests that one will occur at some stage...

the problem with the dukan diet and most diets that rely on excessive restriction is that they are not sustainable in the long term. Most of the weight loss in the first few weeks is probaly fluid loss. After a while your body gets into a starved state, you have a binge, revert to your usual...