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Thanks Boo. I know Kenneth KOH is an avid follower of my research into property cycles too, and in light of the Perth market I understand why you would both be pleased you read my book! I'm glad you actually acted on it instead of letting it gather dust on a bookshelf! My international...

My (property cycle) crystal ball says a resounding NO. In fact my property cycle crystal ball indicates a long slump for Sydney yet. I note BIS Shrapnel issued a press release a day or two ago which I think indicated a recovery may not arrive until 2008-09. Based on my own research of the...

Slump phase lesson 101 Perky29, Thanks for your kind feedback, I do plan to be in Australia sometime in 2007 so hopefully we will meet again then! I only have limited data access for the Sydney property cycle 'Key Drivers' but I believe Sydney is only somewhere around 3-4 o'clock (i.e...

Perth... for all of the reasons already mentioned in various posts on this forum (not least the continuing resources boom) Sydney to lead the next Boom followed closely by Melbourne. From my assessment of the Aust cities last year, and at this point in time anyway (ie always under review!)...

Hi Geoff Our accountant told us on 31st March to SELL SOME STOCK before the end of the financial year which was (you guessed it) the same day! So the company Board made a rapid decision to offer a discounted price that day only. So it was a stocktake special on 31st March only and the...

Thanks Keen, Your kind feedback is sincerely appreciated. I've been busy writing my next book (due for international release Sept 2006) so haven't been keeping up with this thread, hence the delayed reply. I encourage people to use my book on the property cycle as an ongoing reference...

Kenneth, Net migration is @ a quarter of what it was at its peak 3 years ago. We are a net borrowing nation as much of our wealth is in housing. It has been well known the kiwi dollar was too high and the RBNZ was reluctant to decrease int rates because of that. Yes the kiwi$ may fall...

Topcropper, A recession is technically defined as a contracting economy for 2 consecutive quarters and that is what economists are alluding to which may well occur, however that definition of a recession doesn't account for the fact that most economists believe that the 'recession' will be...

I would love to know why you think we have a recession? We don't and the NZ dollar has been known to be badly overvalued for about 2 years now so the drop is no surp[rise and is great for our export industries. We still have extremely low unemployment, good wage growth, positive net migration...

Thanks, Re my trademarked Property Clock. I have a registered trademark on the property clock image which I created with the Boom, Slump and Recovery phases within it. (See my avatar above... that's my trademarked clock image). This image is a registered trademark in NZ, Australia, UK...

I have just read the recent posts on this thread by Michael and Ken with great interest. Michael, I appreciate your comments and I use my property clock in part for the purpose of presenting an image which quickly gives an insight into the property cycle at a glance, without any explanation...

Thanks Kenneth, I'm busy writing my next book (est publish date is September) so will need to be brief in my reply. Anything from 1 year to 4 years... (see chapter 1 of my book) Heres a few easy signs to recognise: The peak of the Boom Population growth trend peaks Rents peak...

Hi kph, Very interesting observations! I use this word because I define the property cycle as having 3 'phases' being Recovery, Boom and Slump. These words don't mean there will be a Boom/Bust type cycle but these are the 3 phases the property cycle traditionally experiences. In my...

Yes, that is exactly what I am implying. Once a top is reached there is still further capital growth but a slower rate of growth. Whilst booms may appear to end abruptly there is normally still a period of further but slower growth rate. No, you NEVER want to be caught trying to sell when...

Thanks Pete, Re my copyright concerns. I don't mind the discussion of my comments and these issues on this forum (Somersoft) but just do not want them copied and redistributed to others outside of this forum. Based on your 'take' of the Key Drivers I suggets you are somewhere around Mid...

Hi Lizzie, I have just read this thread so thought I would comment. Feel free to send me a private message in future if you think I may be able to contribute to a topic (especially if it's about my favourite subject 'The Property Cycle'!) Lizzie said: Lizzie, I hope my book hasn't...

Stretchy, Do you mean the top of the Boom phase of the property cycle (i.e. the point of highest annualised house price growth rates?) or the end of the Boom phase of the property cycle? I think you mean the end of the Boom so that's how I will answer. The following information is...

Thanks Kiwi Investor, Ok that makes perfect sense. Michael, Thanks for the clarification too. I have sought serious legal counsel on how to establish my new business model to ensure we do not breach any laws incl the Real Estate Agents Act and we are comfortable we have a robust and...

Hi Michael, I may have misread this but it reads to me that an advocate can take an assignement to sell a property for 1 person and then an assignment to buy a property for another and then act for both of them to close the sale between the two. If that is what it says then I would think...

Auckland CBD Apartment Market TV Interview can be viewed here You can view the TV1 interview 31/10/05 on the morning business show in NZ here: TV1 ASB Business Program Interview