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Very shrewd. You could write naked call options against the AUD, collect the premium and call the risk a hedge against your property risk ;)

Absolutely, and thanks for your insights.

Thank you WW, you're stretching my powers of perception on these matters :) I would argue that perhaps a 6.2%pa increase in loan repayments could perhaps explain 10.4%pa growth. The reason is that while every house is increasing in value during that time, the increases are brought on by the...

WW I wonder if this helps... Income After Repayments Housing Affordability Index doesn't take into account variations in interest rates, this does. In 2007 Income after repayments was at its highest point, since then prices were flat through 08/09 and booming in 09/10, but interest rates...

Todays Financial Review (which is around here under a pile of stuff somewhere), has a story quoting the ANZ bank's property guy. He says to the effect that stories about affordability crisis due to the wage growth/house price growth equation are bolox. His reasoning is that the average...

Reserve Says Australian Housing Crash Unlikely " Luci Ellis, the RBA's head of financial stability, says most of Australia's heavy housing debt burden is resting with those most able to afford it. "Our assessment is that the increase in debt has broadly been concentrated in the hands of...

Thats right my exact words were kind of guarded... I think thats pretty reasonable on reflection, and I'm comfortable with it. Also can I show you why 2 standard deviations is a lame measure of a bubble. By defenition 2StdDevs is the 5% (rounded) extremes of the dataset. So therefore every...

Hey terrific thread you guys, go for it... I have to apologize in advance but I want to repost something I said on another thread (also terrific), because it might be relavent.

Ausprop thats exactly what I'm saying, the bubble happens before it's defined as a bubble. This sort of problem happens a lots in sharemarkets. I was involved in mechanical system trading for several years and it is very common. Blue card! thanks for the kudos. Exactly also, thats often why...

"Survivorship Bias" & "Phantom Bubbles" Falsify This Research. Here is the guts of the research from the article. It appears on the surface of it (not having read the research), that this research breaks a fundamental law of historical market analisys. "Survivorship Bias". For example share...