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tell me about it - and then he's up on the pedestal heralded as an expert.

a variable, you mean....? then i ask prof. keen to hand in his resignation.

agreed - what a lot of economists miss is that governments will intervene at some point. economics is the study of a free market. when the market hits the fan, it won't be a free market anymore, there's socialisation, nationalisation, stimulus. always has been, always will be. it's...

you missed capital growth in your calculations. that's only a 12m cashflow example.

you're right there HBS - it would be suicide for any party to phase out neg gearing. shame - i think it's taken advantage of on both sides, myself. i mean, i understand if your shortfall is $50 a week - fine, we should compensate smart but small losses that provide housing. but i hear -...

i guess it just goes to show the nature of the industry. wasn't 18m ago where all the MB's on here were posting updates about 80% lends - that's it, judges decision is final etc, low docs are 60% - p__s off otherwise. now, still not out of the woods, we're back to 95% lends, 70% low-doc...

please explain how ANYONE'S job is "secure" if banks won't lend to their bosses?

i don't think you're alone there. it's better for the books, it's better for credit rating and it's a sensible lending practise. let those who want a 105% pay thru the nose for it - for the averager punter though, why should they absorb the cost? trouble is, the CBA are too big - nearly...

why would that NOT surprise me?

that's 3 people thinking the same thing....

this thread is the equivelant to "how 2 put a tin on my rolla yewww" on rollaboyz.

troll alert.

if you plotted late Perth 2006 re prices on a graph, you'd know straight out you were trading a spike and would have stayed out. i did, and sold up my IP late 2007, about 3 months after the first signs of domestic trouble. funny though, the property values didn't fall there and i'd have prob...

look at the current trend - that's the only way to have some kind of idea where the market is likely to go. i tell everyone who asks me how to price their developments for sale is to base it on today's sell price (ie no growth). some people try to put in 8% growth over 2 years and extrapolate...

you're not impact assessing though, you are risk mitigating. if i were an investing GP, i'd say you have analysis paralysis, take 2 doses of current trend pill and lie down for a bit.

agreed. so what's the point? if prices aren't likely to return to 1990s prices,why factor it into a 3 year development? the exit strategy window is small compared to the timeframes needed of this to happen. if that scenario were to eventuate, there's be external forces, like govts getting...

if you entertain every possibility, you would never invest. that's called "analysis paralysis" risk mitigation (or minimisation) is a big part of inviesting. if it's not likely to happen, chances are you shouldn't include it in your DD. while not akin to an asteroid hitting earth, building...

anyone using medians for investing is gambling. it's like timing a car journey on speed limits - everyone forgets traffic lights. anyone using medians for stats might as well quote wiki links as well - they would change monthly just the same. FWIW - prices at mid 90s RE prices would also...