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The 50% discount is really a smoke and mirrors figure anyway, using Kent's IRR of 12.5% over a 5 year time frame should allow you to wear different glasses when viewing returns. Stay calm and keep reading and learning and asking lots of questions! Shouldn't be any need to rush!? Good luck with...

Regarding return of capital. > What is the likelihood of a successful application? This might be a very difficult question to answer and could involve high level planning and council knowledge? Presumably it's less than 100% just going off the discount to potential end value. > Liquidity and...

The reward seems easy to quantify, doubling of your investment within 3-5 years, should be a lot more if leverage is involved. Quantifying the risk would be the question however and having clear exit strategies. Is there some indication the risk is being mispriced at the developers 50% discount?