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    Are Australian property prices going to crash?

    the govt is confused tho as it is stimulating and de-stimulating (respect tax, IRs etc)
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    Are Australian property prices going to crash?

    unlikely to happen for me - so care to share?
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    Are Australian property prices going to crash?

    why do i get the horrible feeling that soon we will be told property doubles every 14 years, not 7, nay 10? these years are like a builders timeframe it would be more accurate to say... we have had various price shocks over the last 30 or 40 years so if we average that then hopefully that...
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    Are Australian property prices going to crash?

    ok, that's a harder line than myself (because of our diff of opinion re debt deflation). you are presumably talking about vanilla flavoured resi IPs... a comm property returning 12% must be a different kettle of fish?That's the problem with these debates: you don't know what yield I am getting -...
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    Are Australian property prices going to crash?

    hard to know because if you are covering losses with expectations of growth and debt deflation then you need to take a view on those variables. there are investments where the yield is reflective of the asset value as is, not what may (or may not) happen. Amazing huh? i am seeing businesses...
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    Are Australian property prices going to crash?

    doesnt this contradict your theory that lenders require a return above CPI?
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    Are Australian property prices going to crash?

    sorry... a rather obvious error in my formula. should be: net yield - interest + (debt x CPI) + (cap gain - (asset value x CPI)) = net profit
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    Are Australian property prices going to crash?

    this is being over complicated. borrowings tend to be a great deal vs. inflation because depositers are so royally done over. but the point is, the borrower isn't the one paying the interest anyway, it's the consumer of the asset. keep it simple: if you have a debt that someone else is...
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    Are Australian property prices going to crash?

    I would love for someone to prove me wrong. there are some investments i need to dump if i am wrong. surely it's as simple as this: if someone else pays for all or the majority of your holding costs and it is cheaper to repay your debt tomorrow, then you must be getting ahead? i think...
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    Are Australian property prices going to crash?

    net yield - interest + (debt x CPI) = net profit
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    Are Australian property prices going to crash?

    you and I stronlgy difffer here, like black and white. and i couldn't care less about tax deductions - I have 20 years of tax deductions to work thru! (i wonder if treasury accoutns for all the losses on peoples balance sheet in their forward tax collection projections?). the main reason is...
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    Are Australian property prices going to crash?

    the debt is deflating but your assets are inflating. you wont win on your net assets, its a break even. the win is just on the debt mond you if you are allocated to gold it could be a win win
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