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  1. Graemsay

    We will defy history if the bubble doesn't burst

    There were a couple of questions posted earlier today about the future direction of the market. Being a bearish D&G merchant I thought that I'd throw in my opinion. :D I'm assuming that inflation over the long term sits within the RBA's 2-3% target, and wages grow at an average of 3.5%...
  2. Graemsay

    We will defy history if the bubble doesn't burst

    Hi Kum Lin Yau. My list of risks were intended as a counter-example to what JIT posted. I don't know if they're likely to happen, but I'd consider them all to be possibilities though I accept that a land tax or reform of negative gearing would be politically very difficult. The UK comes up in...
  3. Graemsay

    We will defy history if the bubble doesn't burst

    What if negative gearing is abolished or quarantined against rental income? Or a land tax is introduced? Or the economy turns nasty and wages remain flat for a couple of years whilst inflation eats away at them? (That's been the UK experience.) Or one partner loses their job and can...
  4. Graemsay

    We will defy history if the bubble doesn't burst

    On the US versus EU theme there was a very interesting article in Newsweek a few weeks ago: http://www.newsweek.com/2010/04/15/why-europe-will-win.html The US is very good at rapid growth of new ideas into major businesses, but I think that's more a function of start-ups having access to a...
  5. Graemsay

    We will defy history if the bubble doesn't burst

    Economists measure property affordability on the ability of the mortgagee to cover the interest costs. I believe that the argument is framed this way because any repayment is a form of savings rather than an outgoing. I'm never entirely convinced by this, and think that measuring...
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