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  1. Graemsay

    Possibility of a Greek default in next week

    There's a discussion of the Greek situation at the Motley Fool's forum. http://boards.fool.co.uk/macro-stuff-12629001.aspx?sort=whole Views seem to be diverging, though seemingly based on the same evidence. The possible scenarios being debated are: Greece exits the Euro sooner rather...
  2. Graemsay

    Possibility of a Greek default in next week

    Couple of bits up on the FT Alphaville blog (not behind a paywall :D). Firstly Citi's chief economist Willem Buiter reckons that there's a 90% chance of a Greek exit from the Eurozone. http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/07/26/1096631/buiters-now-predicting-grexit-probability-of-90/...
  3. Graemsay

    Possibility of a Greek default in next week

    What strikes me about the chart is that it's projecting a trend of around 9% growth per annum over the long term, versus income growth that's somewhere around half that. That's optimistic over the long term. My expectation would be that Sydney prices are somewhat lower than Shadow predicts...
  4. Graemsay

    Possibility of a Greek default in next week

    I saw a TV programme a couple of weeks ago that featured Michael Portillo, a former big beast in the Conservative party, speaking to Greeks about the Euro. Like many on the right wing of the British political system, Portillo is highly critical of both the EU and the single currency. So his...
  5. Graemsay

    Possibility of a Greek default in next week

    An explanation of the Spanish economic situation, in an animated form. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R2C1vBh-Is8
  6. Graemsay

    Possibility of a Greek default in next week

    As an illustration of British Euroscepticism. Or our very own Nigel Farage in the European Parliament... So as I said, a lot of British reporting on the EU is often rather biased. :eek: From what I'm hearing in the less extreme branches of the media, the expectation is that Hollande...
  7. Graemsay

    Possibility of a Greek default in next week

    Correct Hobo-Jo. Off the top of my head, the options on offer for Greece are: Continue with the austerity policies. If things go well they might avoid a default. Reject the austerity policies, have a hard default, trigger off a massive financial crisis across Europe, and possibly leave...
  8. Graemsay

    Possibility of a Greek default in next week

    The expectation here in Old Blighty is that Francois Hollande will moderate the promises made in his rhetoric during his election campaign. For example, I really can't see how he can offer retirement at 60 in any way that's affordable. The main positive of his election is that he opposes the...
  9. Graemsay

    Possibility of a Greek default in next week

    Looks like there has been a Greek Credit Event. :eek:
  10. Graemsay

    Possibility of a Greek default in next week

    Both Dying of Money (also as a free PDF) and When Money Dies are available Sunfish. :D
  11. Graemsay

    Possibility of a Greek default in next week

    I agree with a lot of what Tehanu is saying. The fundamental problems with Greece are an overly generous state and mass tax evasion. These need to be resolved, and there was a letter in the FT a couple of weeks ago where someone was calling for the right (i.e. uncorrupted) officials to take...
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