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I didn't mean to imply that I thought you were. Personally I try to avoid too much prediction, and instead be open to the possibility that anything could happen, with enough awareness of causes and symptoms be to able to make some sort of rational risk assessment and spot when it starts to...

I bet most Japanese couldn't see it happening before it did either. That's what denial is - a belief that something can't or won't happen despite all indicators to the contrary. GP