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That red line is a terrible leading indicator. As is the amount of total credit heading south in a big way. Will be interesting to see how all this plays out but at the moment you would have to conclude the prospects for growth aren't looking good from a business perspective. The RBA can't...

I agree -ve business credit growth isn't the only game in town. But when combined with an increasing exchange rate making all our imports cheaper where is the evidence that inflation needs reining in through higher IRs? I find it interesting that with an exchange rate at this level (0.86 to...

I take it you guys are shorting the USD then? USA IRs are truly expansionary - ours are just at historic lows! A growing mismatch between ours and theirs can only do one thing to the exchange rate... and there seems little prospect of their IRs rising anytime soon. I can see lots of scope...

Or a bear trap! Which brings us to the conclusion that no-one knows what's going to happen. Someone's guess will be right but there is no way of knowing which guess that is. After all it's just a guess - the next black swan could be just around the corner - in either direction! So best to...