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  1. H

    Where are the renters?

    That's true. I don't begrudge them the cash either. As has been said above it's a win-win right now as far as renting from an established landlord goes. I personally would favour these properties over ones purchased recently as I'd see the landlord as more reliable. That's when access to an RP...
  2. H

    Where are the renters?

    Each to their own, I prefer those who can relate to multiple disciplines. The Herengracht Study is a good historical study you may have heard of.... http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1540-6229.00711/pdf I can't find a free source right now.
  3. H

    Where are the renters?

    That would be quite a narrow treatment for the topic of 'Property Market Economics'.
  4. H

    Where are the renters?

    Good for them. I'll be sending my landlord a Christmas card this year. Benevolent old sod saves me a fortune. :D
  5. H

    Where are the renters?

    There seems to be a strange definition of troll around here. I'd be worried about the groupthink. ;) Shouldn't that be "half my interest". ;)
  6. H

    Where are the renters?

    I apologise if it sounds like I'm suggesting you should suffer in silence. I'm just saying that 'lobbying' in the sense of voicing an opinion is futile. Unless you can show someone who wants to see that there is a hard cash benefit to them in listening to you then it's unlikely to achieve...
  7. H

    Where are the renters?

    There's another thread about the lack of investment in building new homes. I suppose you have think about whose interests the market is serving and how powerful those people are. If the market is not serving the developers (or only certain developers) then they obviously don't have the power...
  8. H

    Where are the renters?

    Interesting anecdote regarding 'Doom and Gloomers', the snake oil salesmen in Europe still refer to the dissenters as such even now that the dissenters have been proven right. This comes from the guys who now have bags under their eyes because they can't sleep at night, and many of whose peers...
  9. H

    Where are the renters?

    I'm posting here to get an insight into the property speculator/investor psyche. I do think it's likely that there will be an unmerciful crash in Australian property at some point in the future including widespread foreclosures, but in my opinion that would be the least of my worries in a...
  10. H

    Where are the renters?

    FACT - The future is uncertain. It's possible and arguably likely this will change. Did I predict wide spread foreclosures? Have I predicted widespread foreclosures are certain within any time frame? Can I attribute every claim made by a property bull to you personally, is that how it works...
  11. H

    Where are the renters?

    Europe's current cause celebre is Ireland. They still haven't had foreclosures. Historically the rate wouldn't have been high. Yet a large percentage of mortgagees in that economy are facing inevitable repossession and potentially huge costs depending on whether debt forgiveness law is changed...
  12. H

    Where are the renters?

    The thing is that many of these people do not own these homes, the bank does. The bank can take them back if these people get in trouble. Only one of the reasons these dynamics can change.
  13. H

    Where are the renters?

    It's a very expensive way of accumulating capital. If the average person understood the components of their mortgage repayment then they may think differently. We see in crashes that even after the dust settles these people still don't understand. There's plenty of people willing and ready to...
  14. H

    Where are the renters?

    This is going to be an even more controversial assertion, but if property equates to (note: I did not say accounts for) about 30% of GDP then it has a big effect on inflation itself. Property is intensely important to the Australian economy, I would argue that it is vastly more important than...
  15. H

    Where are the renters?

    Another flawed assumption I've seen many times before. Construction costs are not a floor on prices. With the amount of money chasing property in Australia over the last decade it's inevitable that there is fat in construction costs. These can go down if the market does.
  16. H

    Where are the renters?

    Low by what measure? Rents are much more closely correlated with incomes than capital values. You're ignoring the fact that 'rent is dead money' is the deeply embedded heuristic. Buyers irrationally assume that a mortgage has the carrot of an asset at the end of a life of paying for it without...
  17. H

    Where are the renters?

    If you think it gives you sufficient competitive advantage then knock yourself out. Thankfully we have somewhat reliable demographics freely available from the ABS for the property market. Market information is rarely perfect, it's what you do with the information available (or obtainable) that...
  18. H

    Where are the renters?

    Fair enough, I misinterpreted your intentions. I think that the latent supply has to be priced into the market as a current risk based on it's probability of occurring and impact of occurring. This is what happens in other markets. I guess this is a feature of value investing, although I'm not...
  19. H

    Where are the renters?

    Also, I believe the oft quoted static of a new person every 78 seconds pre-dates recent immigration law changes and is actually a bit high at present. The statistic is out of date.
  20. H

    Where are the renters?

    It is a straw man because that is not my argument, it's related to my argument but not the same. My argument is that the shift required to change the dynamics to great supply side utilisation is not that great. I think this is a position that one if not more bulls have agreed with. I haven't...
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