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Another lession i have learned (dont you just love the market, its a fantasic teacher, the trouble is you just never know the cost of your tuition bill:D) When the market is in a bear market, its safer to buy good quality companies on a price decline because of pyschological fear. The...

I quite agree about the underlying risk, regardless of asset price movement. Sometimes general conditions have to be taken into account. What is RAR??? Yes agree the risks during the GFC were extreme for some areas, not for others. As mentioned in my strategic outlook 2008, i never...

From October i'm still doing very nicely. From December 31st to now, i'm down 2%. Part of this is my own fault:( I made some stupid investment decisions (with hindsight). Sometimes when the market is bullish for long enough, you should just reduce debt or increase cash instead of moving into...

PS i shouldnt be too cocky, this is the first quarter since march 2007, when i am showing a negative quarter on quarter return on my equity investments:(

past tense isn't this correct. Anyway, lucky, gramatically correct English, and investment performance are not necessarily correlated.:p

I dont know, but what i do know is the churn that happened in this forum, during the GFC. Its interesting to look at this forum pre GFC and post GFC. Many some people said 'yiip buy for the long term and hold' but when the sh**t hit the fan, there were a number that panicked and tried to sell...

So with these 'averages' going up by 200%, and with the assumption that property doubles every 10 years, then using 1999 as the base (just for argument sake), then what is the expected return for 2009-2019????? Broadmeadows price should be in 2019: $105k x 4= $420, current price $357, return...

Hang on Boz, this chart is of a general nature, just like the property clock etc. You cant extrapolate exact positions from it. If one could then life would be simple, just write a computer algorithim, to create risk free arbitrage profits. The only problem then, would be everyone else would...

dont get me wrong, i quite agree on your viewpoint as to whether this is intelligent or not. I was just passing an opinion as to the pricing mechanism.

Not really under a capitalist system the market will figure out a way.

Yes this point is quite correct and it does present the catalyst for those who say we are in for one hell of a boom. Its basic economics 101, if demand increases but supply is restricted what happens to price? it goes balistic. So the possibility of 'australia's greatest boom in residential...

Well done Kudos to you mate. That was an incredibly useful chart. It really says in a picture my main concern at the moment. There is a time to hold heavy debt levels and times not to. These are not the times to be loading up on debt. I will go into more detail in a seperate post as it...

Yes its the rapid movement in the melbourne market that has me worried. Fear and greed always act to create imperfect pricing. First of my five aparments sold this week for $500k (bought for $320 in 2007) on an unconditional basis. Waiting a month or so, and then the next one is going on...

YES well done, i agree with Top Cropper it was your ability to spot a 'sweet' deal that has created the performance figures you achieved. The danger is when you try to extrapolate that over the broader market.

I would agree with this statement if you where buying a liquid asset with sufficient transactional volume. BUT PROPERTY IS NOT LIQUID. You cant apply a stop loss, like you would if you where trading a position in shares. Why is liquidty important? because if the winds change or your...

actually i feel its a good read. Why? because its good to get a feel for the risk. Maybe i have just been lucky but i never got caught up in the *asian economic crisis *the tech boom and bust *US housing and finance boom *Global meltdown in equities in 2008/09 And i dont plan to start...

i agree with the part about deomgraphics, demographics plays a huge role in property demand and japanese and australian demographics are as difference as chalk and cheese. I am not so sure about the GDP argument. I can tell you something doesnt feel 'right' at the moment.