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thanks let me ask you a few more questions: (a) how are media advertisements going? Your main newspaper is West Australian News right? are the more advertisements or less advertisements in the paper. What about the property lift out section, is it thicker or thinner than several years ago...

this is interesting to hear, can you go into more detail. Do you think maybe its just WA (and then just certain industries). Which business industries are you talking about? Is the situation improving/getting worse? look forward to your comments. I

haha, actually i dont think australians know what it feel like to have a recession, we havent had one for 16 years. But if we go through one its going to get nasty, really nasty, our asset classes are too finely tuned.

Fits pretty much with my strategic outlook 2010. Because i am prepared for it i am not greatly effected by it. The biggest risk factor for me is an unexpected recession in australia that props up with little forewarning.

and now we come to another issue, trying to impose macro forecasts onto equity pricing. Just got my Goldmans global institutional 'package'. Makes for very interesting reading. Goldman Sachs was one of the more bullish firms out there with regards to future global growth prospects, and...

Some decent articles in the Fin Review today (monday) pages 20-22, covers this exact theme. Also another nice article on page 49 regarding UXC, which highlights that market pricing is not efficient in the short term. Talk of a takover and the stock rises 14%. So what is the value? the...

This is a very interesting comment. In my opinion we have two over riding issues at the moment. (a) increased volatility due to less 'trust' in the market and increasing market trading. (b) the relationship between future stock prices and future earnings. One explanation for the current pull...

depends there are relative value (x is cheaper to y on a relative basis) investors and absolute value investors. More interesting though is your comment re the japanese market. Not many 'value' investors would have got caught at the top, but plenty might have been caught in the various...

I think it depends very much on the sector that the stock operates in. If you take WOW, its a defensive stock, so its 'attractiveness' in the current climate is increased, especially with institutional investors who may not have the option of going to cash, so they cycle to the least risky...

Oracle, you have just highlighted both sides of the equation. Its really great to hear other people talking in this sought of mindframe. Hopefully it will make for much more intelligent future discussions.

Very good points oracle, those who are new to investing in shares can really pay attention to this. In fact the only point on which i differ is market cap. Small caps are inherintly more risky because of their business models, however in the current environment they can also be safer?:eek...

actually my post above doesnt sound vague enough, therefore it isnt 'intelligent enough':D give me a few days to come up with something more vague, maybe a quote from someone several hundred years ago, after all if its been quoted it must be right, especially if its vague enough, left of...

this is a quote i like from someone, in the long term we are all dead, so whats the use trying to do anything. If all you think about is harm, then stick to bank deposits. after all maybe a big black swan metor will strike the earth next year, gold/property/shares/life wont mean squat...

This is a real bummer, trying to make future estimates during times of changes in economic inflection points is a real nightmare. I hear you on this and made mistakes myself, by relying on historical data. I have since tighted up my forecasting by focusing on: (a)those companies that are...

Its all good, i posted this because mostly i talk about stocks, and hence a declining market is generally good for buying stocks. This time i wanted to talk about debt and the need to be flexible if one is using margin debt. In 2008 i was starting off a low base (i had only minimal...

My concern is that the markets could see/saw for several more years as this tug of war continues. Consider also that interests are effectively zero accross much of the globe. Why is this important? because any sustainable increase in growth will result in interest rates being pushed up again...