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  1. I

    Possibility of a Greek default in next week

    Mentioned in another thread somewhere, but I am now exiting my sole investment in Greece: OPAP. Its been a very enjoyable ride, great dividends at my purchase price, a great capital gain, a total investment return of some 150%+ because of leverage but its time to move onto new pastures...
  2. I

    Possibility of a Greek default in next week

    and so now a year + after the event my equity positions have made a couple of million more profit to me. However equity markets are now trading above intrinsic value and are playing musical chairs When the music stops I have no idea, its much harder to gage changes in investor psychology...
  3. I

    Possibility of a Greek default in next week

    yip and a year or so later we see the results, analyse the fundamental risk, buy when there is blood on the streets
  4. I

    Possibility of a Greek default in next week

    and a year+ later we see phase one progressing as anticipated
  5. I

    Possibility of a Greek default in next week

    yeah to me China is a 'big black box'. very hard to analyse. but there will be some good factors that come from a slow down in China (not a crash, but a decent slow down) (a) currency effect on countries like australia (b) reduction in commodity prices, especially energy based commodities...
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    Possibility of a Greek default in next week

    If the net exposure is $2.4 billion, net-net on a cash basis: From the article: The net cash payout on CDS when a credit event occurs is the face amount of the CDS contract less the recovery value of the underlying obligations as determined at a CDS auction. For example, if the CDS auction...
  7. I

    Possibility of a Greek default in next week

    look at the last graph in that article. Nothing to see, move along, move along
  8. I

    Possibility of a Greek default in next week

    There are different game plans for inflationary and deflationary environments (by the way a couple of % inflation is actually good) But is the structural near term risk inflationary or deflationary?????
  9. I

    Possibility of a Greek default in next week

    yes but it aggregates the immediate 'pole of opinions' into a quantifiable measure. So it gives the short term net-net view. But then the next stage obviously is to extract that short term view onto a longer term view and reflect on whether the short term sightedness of the market is correct...
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    Possibility of a Greek default in next week

    Aaron you stated in another thread 'why is so hard for you to say "yes, i agree" without posing ANOTHER set of questions that form part of a drawn out, borderline contrived, response?' Well its because there are so many moving parts, so the 'opinionated answer' has so many subject to...
  11. I

    Possibility of a Greek default in next week

    i will be looking at the EU/US$ exchange rate as well as the individual sovereign debt yields to gauge, the markets perceiption of change in 'risk'.
  12. I

    Possibility of a Greek default in next week

    exactly mate, i glad someone else understands this on this forum.
  13. I

    Possibility of a Greek default in next week

    yes they did, mainly because they were getting free money.
  14. I

    Possibility of a Greek default in next week

    consider also the changing internal strategic relationship of NATO. In times past Greece was considered important because of its location relative to the threat of communism, and thus NATO assisted in proping them up. This game has now moved on. Even if Greece goes more towards communism...
  15. I

    Possibility of a Greek default in next week

    yes this action strategy will be phase 2, but phase one will be internal chaos in Greece. How do the banks operate? What % of greek pensions are tied up in Greek government bonds? How will the government pay for things given they are runing a structural deficit? The government will be...
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    Possibility of a Greek default in next week

    Think you have it in you to solve the problems: Here's a choose-your-own adventure type story. http://crookedtimber.org/2012/02/16/so-what-would-your-plan-for-greece-be/ dammed if you do and dammed if you dont.
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