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SFE predicts cash rate +2% in 12 months' time + a margin for the banks... So even if they're only 50% right, discounted variable rates could be around 6.5% in 12 months' time...

Update - managing my interest rate risk! Once my older fixed rate loans expire later this year, and new ones get drawn down, my state of play will be a bit like this (depending on the SVR then of course): NAB 26% of total borrowings @ 6.89% pa fixed for 3 years Bankwest 22% of total...

Here's a thread discussing actual growth in house prices that might be relevant to this discussion: http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=54536

Any thoughts on doing a 3 year fix and then a re-finance at the end of the 3 year period to another bank on a 12 mth introductory variable rate (if it exists then)...as opposed to a 5 year fix now...?

Not how much...but how fast, 7% in 12 months' time on variable compared to 7-7.5% fixed at 5 years today... $ wise and SANF wise you'd be better off fixing... Sure it's not the ''5 for 5'' or ''low 6's for 5'' we all would have preferred but still worthwhile considering if this was to...

Ummm...... If the cash rate goes up 1.25% in 12 months' time as per the yield curve today, then my 5.11% pa WBC variable rate will go to at least 6.36% pa, and if WBC increases above the RBA moves, my variable rate could potentially hit 7% pa in 12 months' time...which would make the current...

If RBA cash rate goes up 1% in 12 months, Big 4 Banks may go up 2% (pick any figure above 1%) in the same time :eek:!

But aren't you saying "L" and he saying "V"? Re. fixing, I think fixing in 2010 won't be the smartest thing, after this time I would rather do a fix much later in the cycle if needed eg. for 12 mths max.

Hi there, Just for the record, for the bottom pickers here... I think it was Rixter who predicted the fixed rate sweet spot to be just after easter. I made my bottom call on this thread 2 April. Bottom would seem to have occurred around 14 April (see keithj's Fix Now or Wait...

Well the valuation was OK, but it didn't go through on their serviceability criteria...so I'm keeping this Westpac loan on variable now. Another with Bankwest on variable too. And two CBA loans on fixed rates till Sept/Nov this year which I will probably also keep on variable, unless fixed rates...

NAB back UP to 6.19% pa (after discount) for 5 years! Doesn't look like a second bottom is coming...

Was anyone watching NAB's fixed rates? Did they just DECREASE it to 6.09% pa for 5 years?

As this thread nears its end, some other relevant threads: http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=51736 http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=51571 danwatto, I'm also waiting on a St. George bank valuation this week to see if I can get the 5.74% pa for 5 year...

Andrew, Bankwest's 5 year fixed rates have increased twice in the last one month. That's the only evidence I have of fixed rates drifting up. But I have not seen an upward move in the 5 year rates from any other notable bank as yet...

And just interestingly, the leading 5 year fixed rate has gone from 6.19% pa to 5.79% pa over the last 4 months since this thread was started, so a drop of just 0.40%...

My guess is that this 5.79% pa 5 year rate may be like the WBC 4.99% pa 3 year rate...ie. act quickly, or it will be gone very soon! I'm in the process of a re-fi to St. George and if it all goes through as expected I will fix this one for 5 years at 5.79% pa. If we're not at the bottom...

Bankwest seemed to lead the rates on the way down...and now ?seem to be leading on the way up...if I see another notable bank go up I may fix... Bankwest was at 6.19% pa for ages then jumped to 6.59% pa, then soon after dropped to 6.50% pa briefly, and is now back up to 6.84% pa... Bobbing...

Hmm...Bankwest just INCREASED their rates now, 5 years at 6.84% pa... Time to fix???

This was post #115, on 5/1/09... I don't recall it dropping below this, but could be wrong...

Bankwest DECREASED their rates now, 5 years at 6.50% pa. Trend is still down/flattening at this stage it seems.