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Agree Blaster - and it's bl**dy hard!! Not only have to use the most likely outcomes, but then try and figure out what the politicians are going to do - which can defy all logic. When and what form that illogical intervention takes is the next step in the decision spiral.

"Economic forecasting makes astrology look respectable" - or words to that effect (from Bernanke, Greenspan, Friedan or one of those ilk) I posted somewhere else I think, that a study of the economic forecasters showed that their consensus view (presumably when the 'ayes have it') has an...

and Down From the Australian http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/property/housing-sector-hit-by-rate-rises-end-of-grant/story-e6frg9gx-1225816385452