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  1. MichaelW

    Confidence in Australian Housing Market

    So how do I block the posts where people are replying to Beebop too?... Cheers, Michael
  2. MichaelW

    Confidence in Australian Housing Market

    I've quoted it before but its worth doing so again, then I'll leave the poor kid alone... Cheers, Michael
  3. MichaelW

    Confidence in Australian Housing Market

    Yep, kinda what I was saying. Blows your mind doesn't it... Cheers, Michael
  4. MichaelW

    Confidence in Australian Housing Market

    You're not even 30 and you reckon you've got no chance? We're right at the beginning of an unprecedented commodities boom which will lift our terms of trade to unprecedented levels and herald a new economic expansion the likes of which we've never seen before and you reckon you've got no...
  5. MichaelW

    Confidence in Australian Housing Market

    Hahaha, you win. I should have said "Ignoring all other factors such as reducing interest rates, dual income households etc then price growth should be limited to income growth which is higher than inflation." That's why I look for the "other" factors that might tip the balance either way...
  6. MichaelW

    Confidence in Australian Housing Market

    No need, I fixed it for you... I projected this one forward, and FWIW it takes over 100 years at which point 91% of your net income is directed to the loan before the 6% rate of growth is not supported. And that 6% is greater than wage growth... If I change it and set price growth to 5%...
  7. MichaelW

    Confidence in Australian Housing Market

    Yep, that's about right. I'll throw around some loose top of head numbers and see what it looks like... So if we take an income of $60K and increase it by 5% to $63K then $2K of that is nominal due to inflation and not "real". But that extra $1K can allow for a bigger mortgage. Note that...
  8. MichaelW

    Confidence in Australian Housing Market

    OK, less condescending response here... It is compounding because inflation is compounding. Inflation is exponential growth, hence income growth is exponential, hence discretionary income is also exponential. Inflation is not a straight line which is why house price growth is not a...
  9. MichaelW

    Confidence in Australian Housing Market

    On second thoughts, kudos! You're definately a strong addition to this mob. Welcome again... Cheers, Michael
  10. MichaelW

    Confidence in Australian Housing Market

    Fifth, Welcome to the forum, nice strong post for an opener! If not for your last two paragraphs I was going to kudos your first ever post!! :D Still, strong contribution with a good head on your shoulders. Welcome... Cheers, Michael
  11. MichaelW

    Confidence in Australian Housing Market

    In fact its a mathematical certainty that you're wrong. Prices can go up faster than wages and continue to do so ad infinitim. I shouldn't bother explaining this again and won't be as elegant as I've been in the past but I'll put it out there yet again. Why do people never look at back...
  12. MichaelW

    Confidence in Australian Housing Market

    Welcome to the party Truong. Its going to be a hell of a ride! I can't wait to finish my $3M Sydney development so I can grab some equity and go buy my new PPOR in Toowong Brisbane before that market takes off. I'll be buying up there in about 12 months for a touch under $1M. :D Cheers...
  13. MichaelW

    Confidence in Australian Housing Market

    Heny Ford got it right... "Whether you think that you can, or that you can't, you are usually right" Cheers, Michael
  14. MichaelW

    Confidence in Australian Housing Market

    About 1/3 of properties are owned outright from memory, so you're right that most (2/3) do need to borrow. But, even in that 2/3 that have a loan the average LVR is only 50% given $1Tn in borrowings is spread across the $2Tn of properties with loans against them. There's a full $1Tn paid off...
  15. MichaelW

    Confidence in Australian Housing Market

    What sort of answer is that? I could post: If you close your eyes and chant "its going to crash 40%" repeatedly, its a great time to be in cash. But that wouldn't make my case any more than your stupid little dittie makes yours. Goose. Cheers, Michael
  16. MichaelW

    Confidence in Australian Housing Market

    Tends not to happen though. If you look back through history there is no correlation between interest rate rises and house prices. In fact, prices tend to increase at the same time as interest rates are rising which makes sense as rates rise when the economy is strong and prices rise when the...
  17. MichaelW

    Confidence in Australian Housing Market

    Accordingly the RBA will raise interest rates to try and stem inflation but the income effect from the booming economy will see the property market increase regardless of what the RBA does... Cheers, Michael
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