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My research supports what TF says; most break fees are in the first 1-5 years, so the vast majority (or all) people whose 5-year honeymoon is just finishing should be able to refinance without any penalties (including sub-prime borrowers, who are more likely to have a pre-payment penalty). This...

Two factors cause the impact of interest rate cuts on market sentiment to be less in the USA than in Australia: 1) Most homeowners don't feel the benefit so don't feel great about it - in fact, they may be annoyed that they're paying "over the odds". So it's not like "almost everybody" is...

The issue isn't the confidence of US vs Australian buyers; it's the confidence of buyers within each market over time. The changes in interest rates don't affect US buyers on fixed interest rates, you're right - that's exactly the point. But the interest rate drops in Australia do affect...