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If they're making a motzah in their business, there's no reason why they'd necessarily be keeping an eye on market rents, especially 2 years out from their lease ending. That doesn't make them idiots. Most people aren't as interested in market movements of rents as we are. :) And I far from...

Absolutely - sound out the tenant. If they want to stay, they may not even be aware that rents have dropped, and may be completely happy to sign again at the same rent. OK, it's not likely, but it's possible. Even if they are aware, if they have a big investment in the site (ie would be...