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Hahahahaha. Solid.

Nice work Marty. I think you can make compelling arguments either way - thanks for the chart/analysis! :)

Carbon pricing is another good example - big change, political nightmare. Change is hard to sell. Tendency for people to cry victims to any notion of change, quelling any opportunity to have meaningful reform before even entertaining real thoughts of pushing it through. I'm not so sure...

From my (limited) understanding, Ireland set itself up to attract global capital quite well. While poor management and frameworks around that capital inflow came back to bite them, perhaps its a way to get out of the mess quickly too. I hear there anticipated to grow at 7-8% in coming...

Thanks for sharing - definitely a cautionary tale. Tragic too, the impact on peoples lives would be extraordinary. I'm not sure how domestic surveillance didnt pick up some of the warning signs and act to prevent excessive buildup. That run of asset price expansion fuelled by credit is a...

Ouch - thats rough. Seems like a big big choice to pack everything up and move away based on a bet on the housing market. My flatmate packed up from Sydney a few years back to go up to Brissy making the same play. Didnt really work out for him either. His the type of bloke to live with a...

Most economists would agree with you on this one (read Treasury Secretary speeches). Of course it wont apply to each individual in their situation, but from a macro perspective, income growth will be much slower this decade. No mining boom and structural drivers of growth are slowing us...

This is theoretically true and what APRA/IMF point to as a 'key' prudential tool. Realistically though, banks (generally speaking) apply that buffer to any loan that is held with them. However, not for loans held with other institutions (depending on lender policy). For example, if an...

Agree with this Hobo-Jo. I think if your measuring current 'affordability' of house prices, serviceability is a key factor. When looking at affordability over time, current serviceability doesn't mean much as the interest rate will have a very large bearing on the serviceability...

Thanks for the link Keith - very interesting to see. Affordability is strongly correlated to the current interest rate , while assessments of 'valuations' tend to consider broader structural factors at play that affect the housing market. E.g. long term supply issues, policies, etc. Given...

Francesco - i wish i knew where it was publically available. I've looked and havent been able to locate it. It may have been a presentation i went to last year. From memory (at around mid 2013), we were entering a period where house prices were 'slightly' overvalued according to his model -...

Hmm all part of the cycle. Delloite Access Economics have a great moving chart of periods of 'undervalued and overvalued' over time. According to them, over the last 15 year period there have both been periods where housing was undervalued and periods where they have been overvalued. I...