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http://www.afr.com/p/national/income_recession_confirmed_as_gdp_ljjfkAYI94laDKTlEck4VJ Income recession, fiscal recession. Two quarters of negative nominal GDP growth.

You're list is pretty good - can be some or combination of it all. I'd just add that the supply tap is coming online fast now - so its likely to provide buyers more options. I'm not too sure where you got the 100%/98% figures from - clearance rates havent been that high through this cycle...