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In terms of impact on inflation, the fuel excise will be very marginal. They stopped indexation of the excise in 2001, the measure simply makes it apply again. Its a very small effect on activitiy and prices (we're talking like half a cent p/l), despite fuel having a large effect on other...

Inflation data moves around, difficult to make projections for the next 12-18 month rates from one quarters data I think. Not sure about the data specifics, but the carbon tax coming off could have had an effect too. I think the timing of rate rise will depend on whether non mining business...

Haha yep, that's probably a likely outcome. If they bat a slow economy down too hard with that stick though, I rekon we're in for trouble.

A solid interest rate analysis peice in the SMH today. I like and agree with his point about the 'peak in interest rates' to be considerably lower than past cycles. It seems to be a holistic analysis taking into account slower income growth over the period ahead...

They definitely would. I've worked on multiple budgets with many of the people who have influenced the assumptions and parameters used to get to the final figures. They don't have a crystal ball and the data can only be predictive to a point. The noise and other unquantifiable variables at...

Hahaha this is gold. For the real geeks, take a look at last years PEFO/this years Budget forecasts. They've now put 'confidence intervals'. Some of the smartest economists in the country are 90% confident that growth will be somewhere between a band of somewhere between -2% to 5%...

At Ausprop, i'm glad someones been listening to Hockeys story! :) I'm not sure its all as gloom and doom as its purported to be - but i do believe that Australians will need to adjust their expectations of income growth over the next decade.

Hmm this is pure speculation, but the doom and gloom view is being purported by the upper echoleons of policymakers. Lowe, Gruen, Parkinson, Stevens, Ellis's (the Treasury/RBA big shots). Why? Theyre all aware of underlying drivers in our market and have considerably more information/power...

Our cash rate decisions are quite far removed from whats happening in England and the US - the only link is indirect and thats the flow on from global economic activity into Australia. I.e. is the US are increasing their rates, its because theyre worried about inflation/economy can handle...

Re macropru policies, LVR/DSR ratios, RBA don't like them, too interventionist and prefers a 'strong prudential' oversight approach. Makes sense in Australia, with oversight of 4 big banks covering the majority of the market (at least those that are too big to fail). Also to debunk...