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  1. Shadow

    I'm calling it... 2015 is the peak

    So we're half way through 2015 now, and I'm not seeing any sign of this boom ending, at least not in Sydney. Auction clearance rates still above 80%, housing finance rising, vacancy rates below 2%, and Sydney has less stock on the market than Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth or Adelaide. Supply in...
  2. Shadow

    I'm calling it... 2015 is the peak

    I have an updated version... Steve Keen's bad calls and predictions 01 - In 2006, Keen said we may already be in a recession (we weren't) 02 - In 2006, Keen said Australia's Private Debt to GDP ratio would exceed 160% by 2007 (it still hasn't) 03 - In 2006, Keen said Australia will be in...
  3. Shadow

    I'm calling it... 2015 is the peak

    There is no assumption. It was a factual statement about what happened over the past seven decades. Earlier rises were stronger than recent rises. Prices more than tripled in the decade from 1972 to 1982. Plotting it on a linear scale masks this fact. And yes, house price growth is...
  4. Shadow

    I'm calling it... 2015 is the peak

    It only appears that way on the chart above because of the linear scale. In percentage terms, the most recent rise is smaller than earlier rises - i.e. a doubling of prices on the right of the chart displays as a steeper line than a doubling of prices on the left of the chart. In fact, if you...
  5. Shadow

    I'm calling it... 2015 is the peak

    These are my latest charts... Residex House Price Index for Sydney - Linear and Log Scale... http://i187.photobucket.com/albums/x308/LPShadow/Residex-Sydney-April-2015.png~original Sydney House Price to Income Ratio...
  6. Shadow

    I'm calling it... 2015 is the peak

    Actually, Australian house prices have been increasing in real terms since the 1950s. It's been going on for nearly seven decades now. It's a brave call, to call the end of a 70-year trend...
  7. Shadow

    I'm calling it... 2015 is the peak

    Since 2003, house prices and incomes have increased by roughly the same amount - i.e. Australia's national house price to income ratio today is pretty much the same as it was in 2003...
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